TheCrew07

Robert, I agree that all prospects provide salary relief, I guess I didn't explain myself. Say Jeffress fails as a starter for example ala Gagne, but turns into an excellent bullpen arm. That transition is something that takes years as I think we'd all agree that our starting pitchers should be given every opportunity to succeed in that role. Jeffress is maybe 3 years from a conversion to a reliever where as Aguilar is at AA and could be pitching in AAA by the break, and possibly help the big club this year. Most of our bullpen guys were not drafted as such, and those that were drafted for that role were taken late in the draft, getting value out of any draft picks past the 10th round excites me. It wouldn't bother me to have 1 good solid relief specialist per level because we're grooming pitchers specifically for the late innings and if even 1 of those kids were to pan out it would provide significant salary relief at positions where I think DM has overspent in the past. I think you're point about a lack development was very interesting and something I hadn't considered, but not every failed starter is going to make a good bullpen arm. The Brewers haven't abandoned the traditional way of letting players fail as starters first, it's just they've added a new wrinkle with very low risk associated with it. I agree with you though in that I like relievers that pitch multiple innings so I would like to see the relievers at AA and below pitch multiple innings per outing. I really liked that piggy backing concept they were running at both levels of A ball, unfortunately they ditched it, though maybe with all the pitchers taken last year they'll have to start doing that again to get al those young arms enough innings. I see where you are coming from, but I think there's also value in trying to groom a kid like Aguilar as a closer.

I can see both sides of this issue, Weeks is ultra talented there's no doubt, but how long is reasonable to wait on that talent? What if he never comes close to his potential? Hall might be the best all around athlete on the team, potential doesn't mean much if the player doesn't use it. I'm largely indifferent and I hope that Gamel sticks at 3B so the conversation becomes Weeks vs Green, much like Hardy vs Escobar. 4 years ago I was really excited about Weeks, now he's become very replaceable in my opinion. People will argue that he's average, I personally don't care much for defensive metrics and never have because they give too much credit for range, or place too much emphasis on the extremes, so I don't see him as an averagish defender. I will agree that he's averagish at the plate, but being almost directly in the middle of all qualified 2B isn't anything to write home about, especially with his natural tool set. The fact that his draft class was weak doesn't really have anything to do with his performance on the field, or the results he's put up relative to his potential. He disappointing simply because the results haven't matched the tools to this point. While he's disappointing, he's not killing the team by any stretch, and they don't have a viable replacement today, so I'm okay with him. Like I said orginally, I'm largely indifferent because he's not horrible and he's not an asset, he's just kind of there, and he's there with a reasonable salary relative to his production.

Well that's easy to answer, Hardy would have the most value as Escobar hasn't proven anything at the MLB level yet. Braun had over 5 years before FA... Hardy has 2.. the situations are disimilar. Hardy might be the best positional FA in his class if he goes that route. I would love it if he would sign a deal, but when was the last time a professional player didn't take the money? If he would sign a 4 year deal, I don't think it would hurts his trade value to one of the larger markets, but the tail end of that contract would be pretty spendy for the smaller markets. In 2010 someone is going to get moved between Escobar, Hardy, and Weeks... I will say that I'd be much more comfortable with Hardy being the highest paid Brewer than someone like Suppan.

Again you're taking a sabermetric slant, which there is nothing wrong with, looking at Ks and BBs and worrying about a player sustaining an over inflated BABIP... I see the same player, but I see a kid who's making incremental steps in his offensive game as he starts to scratch his vast potential. Is he a 5 tool prospect? I don't think he'll ever hit for enough power to be considered a 5 tool prospect, but he's a heck of a 4 tool prospect. I compared him to Cain because I see both players sort of the same way. Not that resemble each other physically, but they both were so raw when they were acquired (in Cain's case defensively as well) and yet they get judged in the same way as a kid like Lawrie. Cain is a true 5 tool prospect and yet people have compared him to TGJ on the Minor League Forum in the past... while everyone is welcome to their own opinion, sometimes people don't do their due diligence. It's one thing to look at their raw stats, and it's another to put those stats into context and account for their natural talent. I just don't think there's a one size fits all way to judge prospects, I like some because they are toolsy, some because they get results, some because they are a combination of the 2.

Man the Rays are having a good offseason, jerks!

I'm not sure that him being underpaid in Arby means that he's willing to sign longterm with the Brewers. I would love it if he did, but he's one of the top 5 SS in the game and would get big money going into FA and it seems like professional athletes tend to take the best deal regardless of other factors. I wonder why it's so low, he should have been pushing 6 mil in Arby.

I started out where RobertR is, but I've moved over to where And That and Colbyjack are, my transition had everything to do my trying assign value to players, and where I'd like the Brewers to spend their money. Since the bullpen came out on the bottom, I have hard time justifying spending money there, especially on a closer. I can live with a 1 year deal for Hoffman, but it's such an overrated position that I just don't see value in the salary vs innings pitched. I had Aguilar in my top 10 because his stuff is wicked and he can provide salary relief in the bullpen. Just because the team has $85 million or whatever to spend, it doesn't mean they should spend it on marginal value just because they have the money. If Yo and Parra make it through the season healthy and effective I'd rather see them get extended and buy out a year of FA than spend money on the bullpen. edit. And thanks Colby!

Wow X will be happy with #7.

I wasn't picking on you at all, but I'll address that point. Why is it luck instead of talent? Gamel and Salome were just lucky then as well? These are kids that are trending upwards and while their relative AVE may decrease next year that will not mean they struggle, they are immensely talented. There is no way that a player who cares as a high a BABIP as those 3 players did managed to do it all year with luck. All of them hit the hell out of the ball for an extended period of time this season (months not days or even weeks). No one is saying that any of those kids will hit over .300 in MLB but somehow people will acknowledge that Gamel and Salome are talented while Escobar get's pigeon holed like he's talentless at the plate, as if he's fully developed, when in fact he never worked on his offensive game at all until the Brewers signed him. There was a wonderful article this season that explained how he skipped school(not that I'm advocating skipping school) to take groundballs from this coach everyday, that's all he really wanted to do. His MiLB offensive trend is upwards, the kid is improving as he should be, he's as talented as the other 2 players and is starting to grow into his body some, he's not a finished product and it irks me that his trend and natural talent get ignored in these discussions. I'm not sure how it's reasonable to apply MLB sabermetrics to MiLB players who aren't fully developed? A more case by case study is needed which should include factoring in the athlete's natural talent... MLES have absolutely nothing to do with a player's natural ability. Many people commenting on Escobar have never seen him make a play in the field, much less a single AB. I'm hoping that Cain busts out next season as he's another toolsy player the MLB club could really use but hasn't even come close to his potential yet and I wonder if we'll be having the same discussions about him filling the Cameron void next season? Somehow these discussions always get spun into the prospect's offensive production vs the MLB player's offensive production when it's not that black and white. Cost, trade value, contract length, age, etc.. should all get factored into the equation. I've stated it so many times but it bears repeating again, it's not Hardy vs Escobar, it's really Hardy vs Escobar + Pitcher... Melvin has to find a way to make all of the pieces fit, he doesn't have the luxury of thinking exclusively about 2009, it's in his best interests (job security) to build the best team possible, which doesn't necessarily mean build the best team for 2009. Unless we seriously upgrade the rotation this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs even if they get there, and 1 and done really doesn't do anything for me. I don't see how signing back of the rotation starters gets us where I want to go, I'm into a WS appearance, not a WC appearance.

*taps his foot impatiently*

I've never been a big Suppan fan, but how does he have negative trade value. He's still a roughly league average pitcher getting league average deal and he does pitch quite a few innings. I fully to expect him begin sliding, which is one of the reasons I was never that high on the signing, but until he begins to slide significantly when healthy it's tough to claim he has negative value. Granted his salary escalates a couple mil, but not enough that he's grossly overpaid by league standards. I'll agree that he and pitchers like him have negative value to the Brewers, but that's another discussion entirely and one which the community has beat to death.

I might have to jump on that bandwagon just to be contrarian and give us something else to talk about. Then again I'd have to read 30 posts throwing Escobar under the bus because his BABIP was too high last year so he'll have a bad season at the plate in AAA because players in MiLB regress to the mean like players in MLB... or something. Maybe that's not such a good idea after all, that particular discussion is pretty stale.

A wise man once said to me why is it that RH hitters can hit RHP but LH hitters aren't able to the do the same with LHP? The answer is obvious, but I'm more interested in the quality of the player than their handedness. All things being equal with this current Brewer team I'd take a lefty, but generally all things are not equal so I just want the best player.

He'll start in AAA and he's closest thing the system had to a true power prospect. In my opinion some people are making way too big of a deal out of the limited number of ABs he got after the trade. People say the same thing about Gamel and Escobar as well, for me personally it's about options, and we don't have many I like at 1B in the system.

In a utopian baseball league sure, but you're ignoring the likely scenario that Fielder will never sign long term with the Brewers as he's already rejected a deal similar to Braun's and Hardy is 2 years from a huge payday and it's unlikely he'll sign a 3 year deal to buy out one year of FA given his performance the last 2 seasons. Again this all comes to down what you'd rather have when the players walk, 2 draft picks or some immediate value. There's no right/wrong answer, it's a matter of opinion. In my case I'm entertaining offers for either player that includes a young SP of Parra's quality or better coming back because I'll take tangible value over draft picks every single time. The simple truth is that the closer both players get to FA, the less value they have to mid/small market MLB teams that likely won't resign them when they hit FA, which decreases the possible trade destinations. On a side note, fangraphs had Fielder (30 overall) and Shields(29 overall) at equal trade value coming into the 2008 season, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. It's definitely possible to get similar value out of Prince if we're talking American league teams, but the list of likely of trade partners this offseason is dwindling. Fielder especially gets singled out because his defense is so bad it almost negates all of his offensive value, and he scoops the ball so poorly that he lowers the value of Hall & Weeks as well. Fielder has value, but he's not irreplaceable, and if the Brewers wouldn't have moved LaPorta I'd be banging the trade Fielder drum pretty loudly as RH/LH doesn't mean much to me personally. The point is that Melvin should entertain fair offers that include a young SP coming to the Brewers, not that we're in a place where it's trade either player or bust. If the right deal never comes along I'll be alright with it, but I'd rather have a player than draft picks down the road so I just want Doug to keep an open mind and listen.

Really.... When you get up to professional level in any sport, everyone is a talent. It's true that physical talent matters, but what's the real difference between Hall and Hardy for example? Who's the better natural athlete? I think the reverse of your statement is actually true. There are more players who've gotten by on their natural talent so long that they never developed the other tools to be successful. We don't know about them because they never actually made it... That's why the draft in any sport is such a crap shoot, there's no way to adequately measure the intangibles to see what someone will become. Hall of Famers happen when players of great natural talent also have that "it" factor, an almost unreasonable belief in themselves and their ability. Braun will be great, not because of his talent, because he's supremely confident in his abilities, he'll always find a way to do great things. He's talented there is no doubt, but is he really the most physically gifted player on the team? Listen to old ball players from any generation in any sport talk about their careers and their stories are full of great talents that never made it. I've been pretty fortunate, I've had doors opened to me because of my father and friends so I've had the good fortune to meet and have conversations with people that would have normally been way beyond my reach wich have given me a different perspective. I think the closer any of us are to the games, the easier it is to see how complex sports really are underneath the surface, because humans are complex machines. It's easy to make statements in a statistical vacuum like a pitcher was unlucky because his BABIP was too high and he'll likely regress to the mean. The flip side however is observation, seeing that the pitches were in fact poorly located or hanging and got smacked as they should. A player won't likely pitch like crap all season so yes BABIP will regress towards the mean.... nor will he pitch complete games all season and his BABIP may increase. Too often the intent or the why is left out of the discussion, when that's the root of the entire problem. I realize somewhere along the line here it became taboo to talk in cliches, but that doesn't make those cliches any less true. The statistical noise isn't noise at all, it's where the games are won and lost. It's like criticizing a hitter who's BABIP is too high... huh? He was wrong for making good contact for an extended period of time? That BABIP and AVE may not reflect the player's true talent, the middle ground that most players settle into, but is does reflect their relative talent level in comparison to their peers. There's more to this than numbers on a page... Statistical analysis should be a tool that help determines value, not the absolute measure of a player's value, his value to his team, or an absolute measure of right and wrong. Any player's true talent isn't the sum of his physical talents, it's the sum of his physical talent + or - the "noise".

JB12. I don't think age should be the determining factor here with Parra. He was seriously injured in the minors losing parts of multiple seasons, then comes up and pitches well only to break a bone being hit with a ball. I'm not making excuses for him, it's simply the reality of the situation. In truth this is like his 22 maybe 23 year old season, it's not unrealistic to expect growth out of him. The tools are there, we can count the left handed starting pitchers with his raw stuff on one hand. The question is if the rest of his game ever catches up with his natural talent. He pitched a perfect game at AAA, he's plenty talented. If he'll just nibble less and stay on the attack he'll go deeper into games and walk fewer batters, I'm hoping the young guys learned something watching Sabathia go about his business. 3.75 ERA, 195 IP, 177 Ks, 70 BBs He continues climbing the ladder.

A 4th round comp pick would be a laughable end to the Sheet's saga in Milwaukee... he'd never get over his goat status. The thought of it makes me absolutely livid.

Off the top of my head Peterson was a college pitcher... the why is important, because the best college arms go very early in the draft, a position the Brewers will hopefully not find themselves drafting in any time soon. They'll have to target arms like Yo, Scarpetta, Ordorizzi, Lintz, and so on to get guys with top of rotation talent later in the draft.

True Ennder, but it's not that simple... why does he make bad contact? Many times he's caught guessing (his weight is way out in front on a breaking ball) or he's very late on the pitch (oh crap it's a fastball). My father pointed it out to me when we were at Miller Park this summer and I started paying more attention, but Rickie rarely takes a good looking hack where everything is moving together at the proper time. I know you don't like this line of thinking, but sometimes players just have to get out of their own way and let the game come to them. I believe and probably always will that the mental aspect of sports is more important than the physical. That's why I'm on the forget batting lead off and just go to hacking bandwagon... Have success, build confidence, and just let his natural ability take over. A pitcher's pitch doesn't necessarily have to be out of the zone. There is a pretty common formula teams use when pitching Rickie and it's almost laughable how often he ends up in the hole in the count. There's no reason to fear his bat speed when he's not going to swing... Throw a get me over first pitch strike, then a breaking pitch in the strike zone, then waste a couple to see if he'll chase, then come back after him when he's not sure at all what's coming...

Good for the Rays, bad for anyone that was hoping to acquire starting pitching from them. He will DH and maybe play some 1B pending what else happens. He's their 5th or 6th outfield option.

My list. 1. Escobar - The most under rated prospect on this board, he is much more talented than some think, he'll be a stud. 2. Gamel - He's a stud, if he continues to improve at 3B we'll be golden. 3. Jeffress - Love the potential, this is more of an "I hope" than how satisfied I've been with his career to this point 4. Salome - Please, please, work on blocking and the running game all winter 5. Lucroy - Just keep hitting! 6. Green - I don't care that he's not toolsy, the kid is a player who will be an above average big leaguer, is he a 3B, 2B, or a trade asset. 7. Cain - 5 tool prospect who just keeps getting better, explode next year please Lo 8. Aguilar - Why sign a closer when we have one so close? 9. Lawrie - I think he's going to be absolute stud, hope he's moved to 3B 10. Odorizzi - Like the debut, like the stuff, like the athlete, looking forward to watching him in person next year 11. Gillespie - I like his patience, nothing much else in his game excites me, but I don't doubt he'd be a good 4th OF for someone 12. Gindl - I absolutely love little guys that just get after it, he has a future someplace 13. Periard - I've been on his bandwagon forever, not jumping off now 14. Scarpetta - I really like what he did in short season ball, he's on the short list of pitchers I want to watch in Appleton 15. Anundsen - Just keeps getting results, solid back of the rotation starter 16. Braddock - Sky is the limit, but what about health? 17. Fryer - I'm really intrigued by him as an OF 18. Dykstra - I'm intrigued and if he's a 2B then he belongs here, if he's an OF I'm not so sure. 19. Pena - Love the arm, dislike the BBs 20. Brewer - Love his tools but to me he's a guy that can still go either way, my fear that he'll flop keeps him this low. If makes it, at what position with Hardy/Escobar in front of him. General note, anyone below A ball has to really impress me to make the list and separating out the pitchers was the toughest for me so guys with an established track record like Anundsen got the nod over Lintz, Lasker, Peralta, and so on.

If Hardy were to go down, we'd see Escobar for sure. Gamel has outside chance of making roster, but more likely if he's in the plans he'll come up later in the season like Braun did. If Gamel and Salome were as good with the glove as they are with the bat they'd both already be in the mix, it's too bad.

How exactly do they accomplish that feat? What's solid? A #3 type? #4? Above average starting pitchers are getting 15+ million per... is that realistic for the Brewers? Do they trade Escobar and Gamel in the same package to acquire one? Any young top of the rotation starter is worth the 2 best prospects in the system, no one is going to do a quantity deal for a quality arm so Gillespie and Salome aren't going to get it done. If they trade the top 2 players in the system then what do they do when Hardy and Fielder walk? The best way I can put this is that many people around here act like assembling a baseball roster is checkers, when to me it's really chess. If we're just concerned with being WC contenders then we can waste money on FA pitchers and the like... the team will always be above average but never great. That's a simple way to build a team, one move at a time, like checkers, looking for that king, the post season. If your ultimate goal is a WS championship then it requires a solid long term plan with a rotation that is WS worthy, and the hardest thing to do in baseball is build a rotation from scratch. It requires a strategy that forces you to sacrifice some key pieces along the way to put the team in a better position to obtain the ultimate goal, much more like chess.

Other than Rickie watching the best pitch in his AB go bye without taking a cut at it my next biggest issue is his turns at 2B. How can he still be so bad at it? He's the single biggest reason I don't want another ground ball pitcher... typically the play is still an out (unless he drops the ball) so it doesn't always show up in his error total, but making errant throws on the turn really drives me nuts. Whomever said he expected more out of the #2 pick in the draft was close to my general feeling about Rickie, but I think it's criminal that a player with his bat speed hasn't hit for more power thus far. Rickie is another guy with super tools that keeps teasing us with his potential, he'll be starting next year at 2B, but I don't agree that he should be lead off at all. He takes way too many hitter's pitches as a lead off hitter, I'd like to see him bat 2nd or 5th. While he takes walks, his speed is overstated some, he's not a huge base stealing threat table setter like Henderson (whom I was hoping Rickie would eventually become). I don't know who would bat lead off and honestly it doesn't matter to me, I'd like to see what Rickie can do when hitting without that lead off mentality. OBP is important and all but it shouldn't come at the expense of the rest of his offensive game, and my gut feeling is that he's trying too hard to get on, instead of letting the game come to him. I'd like to see him start attacking fastballs again with regularity... if he sees his pitch he should jump on it, regardless of the count, and yes if they groove him a 3-0 fastball I would expect him to hit it with authority someplace.