trwi7

Yes Let me rephrase this so it doesn't get deleted... Why exactly do you say no to that offer? Our two best prospects plus two other solid prospects for a grand total of 10 WAR and we're hoping that the rest of the team wasn't overachieving last year? I'll pass on that. I don't know why this is so hard. I'm not willing to throw away our top prospects for a team I think had a ton of players do something they're never going to do again.

You and I have different definitions of well stocked. Phillips still has strike out problems and was barely above average in the majors offensively last year despite a .400+ BABIP, which isn't going to happen again. Lutz was in rookie ball last year. Ray hasn't hit since he was drafted. I don't think Dubon is a very good prospect at all. Utility guy for me. Medeiros and Bickford are relievers for me. Pennington is so far away that I'm not counting on him for anything in the next three years. Ponce is a fly ball pitcher whose strikeout rate has fallen every year and is probably a reliever. Diplan walked over 5 per 9 innings last year. Peralta may end up being a reliever. Just naming a bunch of prospects doesn't really do anything. Like pretty much every team has guys like you just mentioned with the exception of Hiura, Harrison, Woodruff and Phillips.

Yes

I said it could potentially turn into 2014 where we're fighting for a wildcard spot that gets us a one game playoff and we've already used a ton of prospect capital on Yelich and Archer and now to try to further solidify the roster you use even more prospect capital to find upgrades midseason and all of a sudden your prospects are gone and you're still fighting for a wildcard.

Assume 86 wins was the real talent level of the team last year and going forward. I don't think it is but let's assume that it is. We add Archer, who basically replaces Nelson because we don't know when he'll be pitching again and how effective he'll be when he does. So we're exactly where we are right now. Now let's say we add Yelich who is a 3-4 win upgrade on Broxton. Now we're at 89-90 wins. We lost Swarzak last year, which dings us by say half a win. We're now at 88.5-89.5 wins. That is going to get us what? Maybe to a one game playoff that might be at home and might be on the road. Is that really worth giving up 6-8 good prospects? And then we're going to want to upgrade in the middle of the season and we'll use even more prospect depth and then pretty soon we're out and back where we were in 2014.

I mentioned adding Medeiros, so I'm not sure why you have him listed. Perrin is a probable add so I missed him. Lara posted a sub .500 OPS in low A last year. The chances of him being taken, even with a good season are slim to none. Herrera is likely going to be pitching in low A on an innings count. So yeah, he could get picked but the chances of it are small. Some team can have Griep. A 24 year old reliever with a 1.7 K/BB ratio in A+? That's not someone you protect unless you have no other prospects and even then you can probably find someone else worth protecting. You don't tend to get the best deals either by rushing into them because you feel you have to do something to clear up a log jam either.

How do ticket prices compare between minor league hockey and the NHL? A bunch of families with 0 interest in hockey will go to an Admirals game for $10 a ticket for something to do but how many of them will go to an NHL game where ticket prices are 5 times as much. I've gone to a bunch of Green Bay Gamblers game because it's something to do and pretty cheap and I have little interest in hockey nor do I really understand what's going on. I wouldn't pay to go to an NHL game. If I did the math right, the Admirals average ticket price (not counting the 75 premium seats) is $21.69. So first of all, nice. Now I'm going to use what are probably the 3 most comparable markets for Milwaukee in Nashville, Tampa and St. Louis. Tampa's upper bowl season tickets are either $25 or $32. St. Louis' upper bowl season tickets are $29, $36, $44 and $54. Nashville's upper bowl season tickets are $21, $32, $41, $55 and $60. Bucks season tickets in the upper bowl are $13, $21, $25, $29, $33 and $45. Tampa's lower bowl season tickets are $53, $57, $64, $68, $88, $98 and $175-285 on the glass. They also have a second level where tickets are either $66 or $83. Behind one net on the second level is a club section where tickets cost $143 and behind the other net is a loge section where ticket prices aren't listed but it looks similar in size and design to the Bucks theater boxes. St. Louis' lower bowl season tickets are $56, $66, $70, $90, $138, $172-233 and $320 for seats on the glass. They also have a club section that stretches the length of the rink and costs $140 and $197 depending on where your seat is. Nashville's lower bowl season tickets are $70, $91, $103 and $107. They also have the Lexus Lounge which circles the entire rink along the glass with no price listed. There's also an all-inclusive zone behind the net that costs $156 and their club level costs $68 for the end zone and $95 for the sideline. There are a ton of price points for the Bucks arena lower bowl so I'll just say they range from $47 to $425. Average ticket prices are in the low 70s according to the Vegas owner. https://www.sbnation.com/2017/7/18/15989694/vegas-golden-knights-ticket-sales-nhl-2017-18-season

Well, he's not entirely wrong. The argument is really about whether the team is ready to start using assets to acquire more proven assets. I highly doubt twi7 would have any problem with this if he were more confident in the rest of the existing roster. Exactly. Check back with me in July and if Shaw, Santana, Knebel, Anderson, Nelson (if he's back) etc. are doing what they did last year I'd be much more open to using some prospects to get upgrades.

I see this but do we really need to cash in on our prospects? https://twitter.com/BrewersFarm/status/943587951824515072/photo/1 Out of that list I'd protect Bickford Derby maybe Pennington but we were willing to lose a similar type prospect in Diaz with no roster crunch Ortiz Ponce Supak Yamamoto (maybe) Medeiros Diaz Gatewood Harrison Stokes So that's 11 guys at most. We currently have a full 40 man but it will likely drop to 39 when Wang goes to Korea. Gallardo and Logan are on one year contracts. If Guerra doesn't pitch well this year, he's likely off the 40 man. We could easily dump Tyler Webb, Oliver Drake and Aaron Wilkerson. We have 5 catchers on the 40 man. Vogt was on the bubble this year and could be on the chopping block and we could still get rid of one of Bandy, Pina and Susac on top of that. If Villar has another bad year, he's probably going to be non-tendered. Depending on cost one of Sogard and Perez could be non-tendered as well. Broxton may very well be traded or non-tendered if he's on the team for the entire year I've already dropped our current 40 man roster down to 28 with little to no value lost. We would probably sign a couple of guys to fill major league roles but guys like Dubon who is already on the 40 man could fill a role left by Sogard, Villar or Perez. We still have a ton of outfield depth we wouldn't need to sign a Broxton replacement. Williams, Knebel, Hader, Houser, Barnes, Jeffress is a mostly filled bullpen. You might not even have to sign anyone and just see if guys like Derby and Medeiros are ready. Davies, Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Woodruff is your rotation, with Bickford, Ortiz, Peralta waiting in the wings. You might have to add Burnes to the 40 man because he might force his way to the majors. Of course if you do add Burnes, then someone is pushed to the bullpen and your need to sign another bullpen arm isn't there leaving you in the same spot you were. So tell me where this roster crunch with the 40 man is? We still have a ton of crap on the roster that can be replaced. We might be at risk of losing a guy like Pennington but like I said, we were already willing to lose a similar prospect with no 40 man crunch.

So you fail over the next 3 years and now you're back where you started, except now Yelich is down to two years of control. Sounds great. This 86 win season was the worst thing that could've happened to this franchise.

Groundball heavy pitchers that don't strike a lot of hitters out just don't have a ton of trade value.

Knebel was Melvin, Broxton was Stearns

He hit .220/.312/.461 this year and has a future 50 grade. Maybe not crap but certainly not anyone to get excited about and even then Ortiz has stagnated, I'd still rather have him. And yeah Jeffress was included but he's not the type of reliever that commands a huge return. He's a lot closer to Jared Hughes than he is Aroldis Chapman.

Granted the list hasn't been updated but our top 20 prospects from MLB Pipeline Brinson - Stearns Ray - Stearns Ortiz - Stearns Woodruff - Melvin Hiura - Stearns Diaz - Stearns Burnes - Stearns (hey, that rhymes) Lutz - Stearns Dubon - Stearns Erceg - Stearns Peralta - Stearns Phillips - Melvin Grisham - Melvin Harrison (Monte) - Melvin Diplon - Melvin Supak - Stearns Harrison (K.J) - Stearns Gatewood - Melvin Nottingham - Stearns Lemons - Stearns That's 14 of the top 20 either traded for by Stearns or drafted under Stearns including 9 of the top 10. And that Cleveland deal sucked after Mejia and we're damn lucky Lucroy nixed the trade to them. Give me Brinson and Ortiz over Mejia and crap anyday.

That probably would've been the least terrifying duo in the playoffs this year.

So where do you think the best chance is for them to get that talent? http://i65.tinypic.com/34dl79d.jpg So you think the best way to get top talent, which you say the Brewers can't attract is by winning. I may not be doing a great job of making my point but at least my points make sense.

Oh, so Stearns doesn't like the prospects he acquired? That's great. Praise Stearns!

So where do you think the best chance is for them to get that talent?

Well, how old are these players? Are they in their late 20s to 30 like Shaw, Nelson and Anderson who never had seasons like they had and couldn't have been expected to have seasons like they had when they had never come close to doing anything like that or are they in the 23-25 age range with room for future growth? Pretty big difference, don't you think?

I'll say Brinson becoming a 4 WAR player.

That's such crap. You get Luhnow alone in a room and your memory is erased 5 seconds after he gives an answer to the question "Do you regret trading Santana, Hader, Houser and Phillips for Gomez and Fiers?" You honestly think he's going to say he doesn't regret it? No GM is going to say well I got hosed on this deal, so I better not make another trade ever again.

I want to hang on to our prospects. I would've been shopping Knebel, Santana, Shaw, Pina, Anderson, maybe Davies etc. the second out 27 was made in game 162. Braun would've been shipped out last offseason for the best offer I got from a team not on his no-trade list before his 10/5 rights kicked in. I would've done a complete scorched earth rebuild. Lose 100 for multiple years, get those top 1-3 draft picks, get all the bonus pool money to use in the later rounds. Every decent major leaguer traded for the best value I can get. I understand a lot of people don't want to build that way but that's exactly what I wanted to do and I see no value in trying to get a bunch of 2-3 WAR major league players in trades. Those are the players you get after you have an established young core that's capable of providing the 5-7 WAR seasons.

Wait, what? Yes, of course they're kicking themselves. There's not even a question about that. Gomez wasn't even on their World Series winning team and Fiers pitched like crap this year in the regular season and didn't pitch once in the playoffs. Could you imagine having Santana as an OF/DH instead of Beltran making their offense even better? Could you imagine Phillips as a pinch runner/pinch hitter/defensive replacement in the playoffs? Could you imagine Hader stabilizing their crappy bullpen? Even if those four made zero contributions to the Astros they would still come out basically even because Gomez and Fiers provided exactly 0.1 WAR for the Astros this year and they could've used those four as part of their roster or in trades to supplement the roster far more than a player that wasn't on their team and a player with a 5.22 ERA and 5.43 FIP did.

Wonderful. Why don't we plan on that sustained success 3-4 years out with our own prospects? 86 wins with a ton of guys performing to levels that probably aren't sustainable and we suddenly want to push all-in and give up our prospects for Yelich, Archer, whoever the hell else and hope we can overtake the Cubs or maybe win a one game playoff? It's insane to me.

We we had a rough week out of the break. From August 1 forward we went 31-24, that's without Nelson for a chunk of it. And we had a pretty tough schedule down the stretch. And not even looking at numbers, if you watched the team throughout the season it's abundantly clear that we were better in September than we were in April. It really shouldn't even be up for debate. That rough week still counts. You know my stance but I think we had a ton of guys overachieve that are unlikely to repeat what they did last year and that knocks our win total down without even factoring in Nelson's injury. I think it would be a huge mistake to go and trade a bunch of prospects to try to win this year when we still won't even be the favorites in our division, might not even be favored to finish 2nd in our division and wouldn't even be a favorite to host a one game wildcard.