vacin8r

I dont know if "just a guy" is quite true. the guy has a career minor league ops of around .800 and a major league uptrending ops of .774. if he repeats his numbers of last season(.874 ops), people will be talking about him as one of the premier young mlb outfielders. the cost for the brewers to have any shot at acquiring him has got to be way more than we would be willing to pay(see all threads relating to carl crawford or just read as one yo gallardo). -don

This is interesting. I know there is no way theyd trade upton for turnbow straight up. but if we threw in carlos villanueva i bet they would bite. uptons numbers were hurt by some nagging injuries last season and could definately improve in time. make the deal, play upton at 3rd until braun is ready then move him to the outfield. I could like the 2008-2010 lineup of: upton weeks fielder hall braun hart estrada(until salome or sumthin better comes along) hardy pitcher im not keen on trading villanueva per se, but i am an upton fan despite his shenanagins in the past and i think it would help the team overall. -don

It is true, while statistical data suggests the actual break even point for SBs is at or around 72% and for the sake of my statistic i am setting the break even point at 50% for no other reason than simplicity. it would probably be more correct of a stat to have it be (tb + bb + hbp + (sb * .72) - cs and po) / pa but i went the simpler route: 1) because it would be much easier to calculate/explain 2) one would hope that if a batter is stealing less than 60% anyways his manager would nail his freakin foot to the bag. My main interest was a stat i could easily fire out with a calculator and a stat sheet that would combine obp, slg, and steals to gauge not only a leadoff hitter, but any hitter. My guess would be that Pujols prolly had the highest BRPA (.7256 in 2006) in the league but his ridiculous slg puts him into the roll of a 3/4 hitter 1st. Its not exactly perfect, but based on the fact it does seem to match well with the number of runs scored that it is a usable stat. -Don ps-yeah the 50 sb 50 cs player you describe according to statistics would cost his team about 20 runs on the season vs never running at all. just thought id throw out a little statistical analysis towards your gripehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Ive been tinkering with a leadoff stat myself recently. And except when a team had a dominant slugger(which added more runs scored than they should) the correlation seems to be about right. I must admit however that my sample size in this the planning stage is very very small. The stat im going for is something along the lines of bases reached per plate appearance(BRPA for short). Take (total bases + walks + hbp + sb - cs) / plate appearances. Just using last years stats as an example: sizemore:.6072 BRPA utley: .5886 BRPA reyes: .5946 BRPA hanley ramirez: .5714 BRPA furcal: .5271 BRPA eckstein: .3967 BRPA(and these guys won the WS) weeks: .5036 BRPA gross: .5476 BRPA brady clark: an astonishingly low yet better than ecksteins .4046 BRPA for many of the major leaguers if i divided bases reached by their run total the numbers come out around 3.4. rickie is an anomoly in that he scores at a much higher clip than his peripherals demonstrate with 2.84 bases earned per run. On the other end of the spectrum brady clark needs 3.82 bases earned per run i would guess demonstrating his lack of aptitude for running the bases. also as i said above teams with players like howard or pujols naturally have lower bases/run although not that pronounced as utleys is 3.32 barely below the norm, and ecksteins is 3.22. like i say, still kinda in the experimental stage, but i like the results so far. -Don

If we deal only one of mench/jenkins, Id much prefer it be Jenkins. for one, wed save more money(unless wed get a better player by eating some of his salary), and two, mench is the better guy to team up with gross to have a solid LF. It seems the search for a big bat to play left or center(with hall getting the other spot) is just about dead, so that platoon is about the best we have to hope for. Id also trade clark. how bout clark and brad nelson to colorado for ramon ramirez, and jenkins and turnbow to philly for lieber and geoff geary. we get a 5th starter, really upgrade the pen, and still have a solid OF with hart, hall, and umm Gavin Menchengross(a good german name for a town like milwaukee). -Don edit: crap forgot rockies got taveras, well clark and a mid-level prospect for a different solid reliever.

"Send in stunt double for Fidel Castro. Perhaps Lieutenant Drummond from Vice Squad." completely unnecessary. The rifle squads around the mezzanine level would insure that one does not get a hit off El Presidente!!! -Don

If convicted of federal purgery charges or tax evasion charges, woud he be in the california penal league? or pehaps the federal penitentiary league? or with how much the senate sub comittee seems to hate him atm.... perhaps the Guantanamo All-Stars. Dream matchup... Fidel Castro pitching to Barry Bonds. -Don

After seeing Doug Melvin with a copy of moneyball in the hotel lobby as well as seeing him hanging out in the hotel piano bar with Bill Beane, sources are beginning to swirl about a possible blockbuster involving the Brewers and A's. The Brewers apparently may have offered Bill Hall and Ryan Braun for Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, and Justin Duchsherer. The A's seem to be balking at the thought of losing Haren and have countered by including Joe Blanton instead. Mr. Melvin seemed to be uninspired to move a prospect as coveted as Braun without getting Haren who he considers to be the centerpiece of the deal. We will see how this move percolates and hope to have more information before the two GMs board their respective planes home. -as reported by the Red Herring Press Gazette

I like Tomko, but I dont want to give up Wise. Do you think they would take some minor league talent for him? a la Dillard and Hendrickson? -Don

I have this feeling his ego wont let him sign with any team for under 2yrs/30mil. with that being said its not out of the realm of possibility he signs with no one before spring training. At that point some AL team like Baltimore will realize they dont have the guns to compete and pony up that kind of silly money. -Don

Latest word has Hawpe "unavailable". I dont think we have the firepower(at least of guys were willing to trade to Jennings. Like my post in the jenks to SF thread Ive been looking at how to improve our bullpen since our rotation is pretty set, especially if we get lieber. How about Brady Clark for Ramon Ramirez? -Don

I think theyd take Jenkins for Kevin Correia and a nugget/aa level prospect. I really like correia's numbers and think he could help our pen bigtime. -Don

I wish theyd be dumb enough to take mench and jenks for markakis, or maybe jenks and a prospect not named gallardo, braun or inman for loewen, but if benson is the best we could get from them logically..... yeah, i guess id take it if theres no better offer from another team. -Don

When it comes to Hendrickson, lets reverse the Melvinism. Im not inspired to trade for him at this time. -Don

Well it makes sense. I cant imagine a team who expects to be playoff bound will enter the season with Termel Sledge as its starting LF. They also need a 2b and another SP. How about Jenkins or Mench(whoever they prefer), Vargas, and Graffy for Linebrink and a prospect... maybe Jered Wells. -Don

Tracy did play 53 games in the OF last year. He just missed an .800 OPS in a down year for him(although thats hitting in a hitters park. I would be all for trading for him if we didnt have to give up too much. I think as has been said, theyd be looking for at least Bush, and Im not sure I want to pay that. -Don

From that list assuming they want a corner outfielder and bullpen help, the brewers and reds would be the best bets. I think Villy, jenkins, and turnbow/cappellan/aquino would be enough, unless the reds are smart and trump us with adam dunn and a bullpen arm, maybe get the dodgers to throw in ethier as well. -Don

after reading the above link, my only question is... can jon moeller outhit chad? -Don

dpapo posted the link, just click it. -Don

Lieber career: INN GS W L S K BB HA ERA WHIP 2073.1 314 126 115 2 1472 394 2238 4.259 1.270 Garcia career: INN GS W L S K BB HA ERA WHIP 1643.2 251 116 71 0 1202 529 1584 4.009 1.286 both are in the last years of thier contracts, lieber is $7mil, garcia is $10 mil. Garcia is 30 years old, Lieber is 36. Most of this is close to a push I feel. Garcia Ks more, but walks more too. I would probably take Garcia however, just because he has pitched at least 200 innings in each of his last 6 seasons, while Lieber has accomplished that feat only once in the last four seasons. Jon Lieber 6 years ago is just about identical in terms of the quality of pitcher to what Garcia is right now. Both are solid middle of the rotation guys, just Garcia will eat more innings. I guess Id be pretty happy to have either if all we have to give up is Mench (or even Miller) and maybe eat a few dollars. Can we afford to eat those dollars without trading Jenkins? I doubt it, so a Hart/Hall/Gross-righty platoon mate could be very possible. Get a solid bullpen arm for Jenks, and trade Turnbow for what should be an easy to find righty platoon corner outfielder and I think were golden. -Don

Look at it from the reverse. How many hitters out there would you trade sheets for? or gallardo? There isnt ahitter on this team I wouldnt trade for Kazmir. Weeks? ok Hall? sure Fielder? What the Heck. Like what was said, young pitching that good isnt that easy to come by. Besides, If they wanted to deal young pitching for young hitting, we wouldnt be seeing all the baldelli and crawford rumors that we are. Id imagine(purely from a speculation point) it would take weeks, hall, and inmann(maybe even gallardo instead) just to land kazmir. Just like we say it would take wright, a young arm, and prolly Milledge for the mets to get sheets. Kazmir is even more unlikely to be a brewer than manny is. -Don

Ahh, I could have misread it, sorry. I do like garcia or vasquez better than lieber though. Can we make that happen?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif -Don

To continue what mlbtraderumors.com had: they mention that there could be a 3-way: Mench to Philly Damien Miller to either Philly or ChiSox(it was a little vague) Rowand to ChiSox one of ChiSox starters to Milwaukee (presumably either Garcia or Vasquez) Im not crazy about losing Damien in the deal, but either way, I dont mind having Rivera and dont what his minor league options are anyways. I think Id do this if I was any of the teams. Philly gets Mench who I guess they want and possibly a good catcher for Rowand who I have heard they want to unload. ChiSox get there CFer, one who I know from talking to ChiSox fans would make them very very happy. And the Brewers get the solid middle of the rotation pitcher theyve been after. Philly also saves Lieber for themselves, or to trade him later, and the Brewers have some flexibility as well(perhaps the CVil/Aquino/Cappellan for Baldelli trade rumored elsewhere). We then move Jenkins for bullpen help and I really like the roster. -Don

I dont see the twins trading for hall at ss with bartlett beinning to show he has skills, and if im the rockies id keep holiday and see what i have in tulowitski(sp?) at ss. Boston I could see drooling over the chance at getting hall, but I dont think WMP is enough of a return. If the blue jays would have traded for hall, it probably would have happened before they signed royce clayton. plus like i said in another thread, I doubt wells would sign an extension with the crew. at this point i think id rather have hall than crawford so that doesnt work. I just dont know. Perhaps the white sox could be called. I would consider jenkins, hall, and koskie for brian anderson, joe crede, and freddy garcia. Its not exactly quantity for quality, but it would help the sox's offense and allow them to move mccarthy to the rotation, while giving us the SP we wanted. Then we make a quantity move with vargas/villanueva, clark, turnbow, and mench to get a bullpen arm and a solid LF, perhaps the royals for emil brown and joel peralta. Lineup: 1b fielder 2b weeks ss hardy 3b crede lf brown cf anderson rf hart Rotation: sheets capuano garcia bush whoever not traded between vargas/villanueva and a solid bullpen obviously we would need brian anderson to realize a bit of his potential for this to work out, but its not bad. Now if we can make the same deals as above but keep hall and instead make it hardy and a solid prospect or maybe zach jackson That makes everyting better but i dont think they do it. -Don

Everyone seems to be of the opinion that the brewers should obtain some kind of middle of the order bat through trade this offseason. My question is what bats are out there that a team would trade if we are unwilling to give up top prospects such as Yo or Braun? Burrell has been mentioned, but without the Philles getting any of the big name OF FAs this year, I see them holding on to him. Wells has been mentioned but the talk is that he wants to head to the west coast when he reaches free agency next year so wed be giving up major talent for a one year rental. Crawford/Baldelli may be available, but they would require high end pitching both MLB and prospect level(probably no less than Yo for Crawford). Coco Crisp seems to be available soon assuming the red sox dont trade manny, but most dont consider his stick very big(keep your minds out of the gutter). Manny could be available, but we all know he aint gunna be a Brewer. Who the heck is left? I think we could get Emil Brown from the Royals for a mid level prospect and a good bullpen arm like cappellan or perhaps even turnbow. Perhaps the twins could be contacted to see what it would take to get Cuddyer, but I doubt we could meet their price. Adam Dunn is available and probably affordable, I just doubt the Reds would trade him to a divisional rival, at least I wouldnt. Unless Im missing someone, after that there are a bunch of guys their teams would be fools to trade away, and guys no better than jenkins, many for equal or more money. I may be stuck jumping on the keep Jenkins bandwagon after all. Anyways, I guess Im just pointing out that its easy to say go out and get a big bat. However, with free agent prices soaring and not many teams in a full on rebuilding mode, there just isnt a lot of talent out there to be had for a team interested in keeping their team intact and/or keeping their top 2 or 3 prospects. Oh yeah, and I fear the use of paragraphs like Steve Sparks fears phone books. -Don