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Minor League Stat Comparison tool


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12 years ago, I built a prospect comparison system called JAVIER on Beyond the Box Score. At this point it's so old, you have to use archive.org to get to the pages. The idea behind it is to use very basic stats (BB%, K%, ISO, and Speed Score) to build a picture of a player and find similar players through the years. The beauty of using these simple stats is that comparisons can extend back to 1978, when Minor League data is readily available. I purchased data from The Baseball Cube and ran a bunch of z-score analysis, league regression, age regression, and Euclidean distance scores to find similar players based on minor league data. 

The website is published as a Github Page and can be accessed here: https://cstjohn810.github.io/prospect-comps/

The functionality is fairly simple at this point, you just search a player and it will show their likelihood of reaching the MLB, a range of their possible wRAA outcomes, and their top 20 similar players (who are 28+ years old). Then there is a season-by-season breakdown of how they arrived at their particular zBB, zK, zISO, and Speed numbers.

Here's the top 5 comps for Jesus Made, for instance:

firefox_BnKlKdjYQ4.png.9f20d3090e58fe6f09672ae132433daf.png

It's just hitters for now but I do have pitching stats and intend to add them in the future. I can also add some more details on calculations and more features to the site as time allows. Anyway enjoy for now and let me know what you think.

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Stealofhome

Posted

One unfortunate issue I just noticed is that the ACL stats are not getting included properly, so Alexander Frias doesn't get credit for his 2026 line yet.

TheIrrelevantWriter

Posted

This is awesome! I bought a few packs of Draft Pick cards a few years ago and I pulled this sick Dylan O’rae auto and I have been tracking him for a few years.IMG_2251.jpeg.db6d699da45f0493f05372725d727ad8.jpeg

Unfortunately the site does not favor Mr. O’Rae so retirement plans are on hold.

IMG_2250.jpeg.55192f0f1147d7196a4ee3ac7e860a62.jpeg

But this is such a cool tool! Thank you for sharing!

Stealofhome

Posted

22 minutes ago, TheIrrelevantWriter said:

This is awesome! I bought a few packs of Draft Pick cards a few years ago and I pulled this sick Dylan O’rae auto and I have been tracking him for a few years.

Unfortunately the site does not favor Mr. O’Rae so retirement plans are on hold.

That gives me an idea to add in a most similar productive player feature for those players with no good comps, or some way of discovering where they might need to improve to give them a better shot. O'Rae is 1.1, -0.83, -0.61, 66.7 So walks a lot, doesn't strike out, has well below average power, and good but not elite game speed (surprising, given his stolen base totals, might be worth a closer look). Billy Hamilton has an 88.7 speed score, Chandler Simpson 76.0.

The closest productive hitter comp he has is Michael Brantley (685 score, which is out of 1000, poor). But he had more power. The only players I can find who had an MLB career wRAA greater than 0 and had that little power in the minor leagues are Esix Snead (14 PA), Yefri Perez (3 PA), and Darren Baker (14 PA). 

But Luis Castillo is right there (again, slightly more power, which is crazy, since he had 28 HR in 15 years), but he did have 370 MLB stolen bases and 3 all-star appearances, though I imagine O'Rae's glove isn't at Castillo's level. 

CheeseheadInQC

Posted

16 hours ago, Stealofhome said:

That gives me an idea to add in a most similar productive player feature for those players with no good comps, or some way of discovering where they might need to improve to give them a better shot. O'Rae is 1.1, -0.83, -0.61, 66.7 So walks a lot, doesn't strike out, has well below average power, and good but not elite game speed (surprising, given his stolen base totals, might be worth a closer look). Billy Hamilton has an 88.7 speed score, Chandler Simpson 76.0.

The closest productive hitter comp he has is Michael Brantley (685 score, which is out of 1000, poor). But he had more power. The only players I can find who had an MLB career wRAA greater than 0 and had that little power in the minor leagues are Esix Snead (14 PA), Yefri Perez (3 PA), and Darren Baker (14 PA). 

But Luis Castillo is right there (again, slightly more power, which is crazy, since he had 28 HR in 15 years), but he did have 370 MLB stolen bases and 3 all-star appearances, though I imagine O'Rae's glove isn't at Castillo's level. 

I am surprised Xavier Edwards isn’t a better comp, although I guess his ISO spiked a bit once he reached AAA.

Stealofhome

Posted

On 6/23/2026 at 3:23 PM, CheeseheadInQC said:

I am surprised Xavier Edwards isn’t a better comp, although I guess his ISO spiked a bit once he reached AAA.

That ISO represents bat speed and it is so crucial to having any success in the Major Leagues, especially. 

Stealofhome

Posted

I fixed the ACL issue and updated the site, so Frias is now getting credit for his domination at that level. His profile fits somewhere between Shawn Greene and Trevor Craport.

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