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Final record for Brewers this season?


Jeffrey James

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     Now that we’re past the one-third point of the season, I’m curious what you think the Brewers final regular season record will be. FiveThirtyEight currently predicts the Brewers finishing the season at 88-74. This simulation projects the Brewers having a two-thirds chance at making the playoffs, and only a 3% chance of winning the World Series [1]. However, as we have learned with past elections, simulations can’t be trusted! The good news is Brewers have Craig Counsell as their skipper.

     Clearly, one’s opinion of where the Brewers will finish the regular season changed in the month of June. It’s fair to say everyone was holding their breath during an eight game losing streak, the longest in seven years. Thankfully that streak was put to an end last night, with solid offense and excellent pitching. With Craig Counsell poised to own the regular season title of the Brewers most winning manager, can he alone right the ship? Or will it take Brewers owner, Mark Attanasio to focus on purchasing productive bats before the trade deadline? While considering the Brewers final season record, it is significant to address the impact injuries are currently having on the team.

     This month, Brewers pitching finally broke down. Their stunning starting pitching staff's performance faltered, and two of their stars are now on the injury list. On top of this, the Crew’s remaining starters have all seen their ERAs increase, some significantly. Both Woodruff and Peralta’s return dates are up in the air. However, if our starters can get healthy, and the mentality of our next man up crew can withstand, hope remains.

     So what do you think? Will the Brewers acquire the bat(s) they need to make a real run deep into October? Or will they face a fate similar to last season? We all know even the teams with the most wins slide during the regular season, however, the best teams recover. The upcoming series against the New York Mets, who have the best record in the National League (19-8 at home), will be a real test of this team's resolve. What do you think the Brewers final regular season record will be? Drop your predictions in the comments below!

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I would have to look up the exact numbers, but in the thread with preseason predictions I picked the Brewers to win the division by something like 2 games with like 88 wins.

I was significantly more bearish on the Brewers than a lot of others who were talking about 95-100 wins, mainly because I was quite skeptical about the offense. Those opinions, and the basis for them, have been laid out in the offense thread. 
 

I am doing my best to put the recent slump in context, especially because the schedule does get more favorable from July forward. But the offense being even worse than I expected and the pitching falling far short of expectations (even recognizing the injuries) I don’t expect the Brewers to make the playoffs. I’ll keep the expected wins around 86-87, but I don’t think that will be enough to win the division.

The next checkpoint should be the end of July when we see if the Brewers can shake the current doldrums, what moves they and other contenders make, and what the injury situation is around the league. 

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With the Brewers trading Hader and adding no hitters while the Cardinals and Phillies bolstered their rosters and are heating up, I’ll stick with my comments from before: 86 wins and no playoffs.

The next couple of weeks with series against the Rays, Cards, Dodgers, Cubs and Dodgers might tell us if the Brewers are going to be in the race in September.

Stay tuned. 

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