Prince in the clutch

[TooLiveBrew]

It would be interesting to see how the clutch stats play out the rest of the way, so I want to re-state A-Rod & Lopez's numbers here for reference's sake. Baseball-Reference.com as the reference...

 

Close & Late, after 9/2/08:

 

Jose Lopez: .352/.375/.440/.815

A. Rodriguez: .270/.365/.460/.825

[DougJones43]

It would be interesting to see how the clutch stats play out the rest of the way, so I want to re-state A-Rod & Lopez's numbers here for reference's sake. Baseball-Reference.com as the reference...

 

Close & Late, after 9/2/08:

 

Jose Lopez: .352/.375/.440/.815

A. Rodriguez: .270/.365/.460/.825

Those numbers fail to take many clutch, truly game-breaking things into account that WPA type stats include. Double plays are much worse than creating one out, but are not taken into account. How many runners were on base? Was it the third out? What was the exact situation?

 

A-Rod could have hit a solo HR in the 9th while down by 3 runs, and it would give him the same 'close and late OPS' score as somebody hitting a grand slam down by 3 runs in the same situation. Obviously, those two outcomes have drastically different effects on improving the chances of winning a game during a clutch situation.

 

 

edit: Also, this stat compares their "clutch" performance to "context neutral" performance. So, the fact that Rodriguez suffers a dramatic dropoff in numbers during clutch situations hurts him. On the other hand, Lopez is not nearly as good normally, but has performed much better in at-bats that were more influential in determining the outcome of the game.

[True CryM]

I love how it was only 5 months ago that I was trying to explain that expecting 50 HRs from Prince this year was unrealistic. Now, Prince is obviously a mediocre batter that should bat 6th or lower. It's all so simple.

Has anyone in this thread called Prince a mediocre batter who should bat 6th or lower? That seems pretty simple.

[endaround]

Well if you read the thread, yes they did.

[DSFastball55]

I still completely believe in Prince. I just think that after last year, other teams know his weaknesses are are pitching him differently. He's an outstanding hitter and he will adjust, it's just a matter of time.

[Oldcity]

Maybe it doesn't mean much about his real ability, but A-Rod has been horrible in clutch situations this year, it's a fact. Prince has been slightly below average as well. Last year, A-Rod was great in the clutch, and Prince was slightly above average.

Man, it's almost as though this clutch thing is totally random.

[jhart05]

He seems to me to be the kind of guy that will press when things aren't going well for him. And things aren't going well for him right now.

 

Like he tries too hard if he isn't hitting like he thinks he should.

 

He just needs a day off.

[Invader3K]

He just needs a day off.

I totally agree with this. Give him a day or two off to just get his mind out of this "slump". The problem is, who do you start at 1B then?

[Robideaux]

Did Prince Fielder eat somebody's puppy or something? Wow, the level of vitriol in here is just plain weird. I know, in general, we as sports fans are a reactionary bunch---nature of the beast and all, but it's odd for fans to be turning on one of the stars of a team that will most likely make the playoffs for the first time in a few generations.

 

Sure, he hasn't been as good as last season, but expecting 50 homers every year is simply unrealistic. Outside of the steroid-enhanced 1990s, only a few players in the history of the game have hit 50+ more than once.

 

Prince shouldn't be batting 4th? Why? Because the #3 hitter is having a better season? He deserves to be booed? Why? Because despite what the statistics say (aka the people who recorded what happened on every single play not just the most recent ones we happened to see) , we know he's a bum in pressure situations?

[Invader3K]

Did Prince Fielder eat somebody's puppy or something? Wow, the level of vitriol in here is just plain weird. I know, in general, we as sports fans are a reactionary bunch---nature of the beast and all, but it's odd for fans to be turning on one of the stars of a team that will most likely make the playoffs for the first time in a few generations.

 

Sure, he hasn't been as good as last season, but expecting 50 homers every year is simply unrealistic. Outside of the steroid-enhanced 1990s, only a few players in the history of the game have hit 50+ more than once.

 

Prince shouldn't be batting 4th? Why? Because the #3 hitter is having a better season? He deserves to be booed? Why? Because despite what the statistics say (aka the people who recorded what happened on every single play not just the most recent ones we happened to see) , we know he's a bum in pressure situations?

I don't think anyone really thinks he's a bum and that the Brewers should throw in the towel on him. The numbers say that he's been horrible at the plate in the last two or three weeks, though. I really think just sitting the guy for a day or two couldn't hurt. I mean, when he came up last night and immediately grounded into a DP with Braun on second...that is just not consistent with how he's performed in the past. Just looking at the guy, it seems like he's really reaching at the plate. Some kind of adjustment has to be made.

[jason21nl]

Once again, I don't think people are expecting 50 every year. He has to get on fire to get to 35 and I think that is to low of a number for him.

[endaround]

He's had to face a huge amount of left handers lately. And has played constantly. Now with Dillon back they have a guy who can fill in. He really should have gotten to rest vs Santana.

[Oldcity]

I'd play Dillon at first against Perez today, but I suppose that's more for the game thread.

[trwi7]

Sure, he hasn't been as good as last season, but expecting 50 homers every year is simply unrealistic.

 

 

This is by far my favorite line that is currently used on this site. Please, point to one post, just one where somebody said they expect him to hit 50 homers this year. The problem is, that his SLG% this year is 13th amongst qualified 1st basemen, 10th amongst qualified 1st basemen in OBP and 9th amongst qualified 1st basemen in OPS. With his defensive "abilites" he needs to hit more than that to gain value, which is why this argument is being made.

 

 

[jhart05]

The problem is, who do you start at 1B then?

 

 

I'd be fine with Rivera (vs.LHP) or Nelson (vs.RHP) there. I supposed Dillon could also do the job as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Those numbers fail to take many clutch, truly game-breaking things into account that WPA type stats include.

 

That's a great point. I thought of that after I posted... just didn't know where the other metrics were.

 

As of 9/3/08, before any games have been completed, WPA (from fangraphs.com) for:

 

Jose Lopez (SEA) -- 1.14

Alex Rodriguez (NYY) -- 0.47

 

 

EDIT: DougJones, if there's a stat you feel is a better one to use here, please point me to it -- thanks in advance. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Not sure where to find the 'clutch' stat I think you posted earlier.

[DougJones43]

DougJones, if there's a stat you feel is a better one to use here, please point me to it -- thanks in advance. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Not sure where to find the 'clutch' stat I think you posted earlier.

'Clutch' is also a stat that's listed on the fangraphs website. It should be in one of the columns near WPA. Obviously, WPA is a more informative stat about a player's true overall value and contributions, but the clutch stat seemed relevant to examine here because it compares how players have performed in high-leverage at-bats versus how they hit the rest of the time. That is what the thread is about, after all.

 

I'm sure it's flawed (like most stats are), but I thought it was interesting to at least look at, to see if there is actually any substance to the idea that Fielder's performance has dropped this year in high-leverage situations. Turns out it has, slightly. And that's in addition to the fact that his overall performance has dropped dramatically.

[True CryM]

Well if you read the thread, yes they did.

I read it. Twice now. Mediocre and 6th aren't popping up.

[endaround]

"Not me. But clearly Ned does, otherwise he would not have a middle of the road hitter batting cleanup. "

 

Yes no 6th per se but not sure how much more it takes

[logan82]

Average NL hitter .268/.336/.420/.756

Average NL 1B .275/.358/.468/.826

Prince Fielder .265/.365/.483/.848

 

 

I guess I just don't see where Fielder is average and in a year when all those stats are below his career averages. My guess is that he is just having a down year.

[brewmann04]

he not Average at all i agree he just not clutch this season