90 wins - enough?

[davego]

Not sure if this really warrants a new thread, so no offense taken if this gets pulled down. I was looking @ what the Phillies have left for a schedule relavtive to Milwaukee and I'm not sure if 90 wins by the 'Crew will do the trick and secure the wild card. For most of August and September that is the number I've played with. The Phils have 5 with Fla, 6 with the Braves and 3 against the Nats (outside of the 4 V the 'Crew)... I know this is just speculation but I'm wondering if it really might take 92(+) to hold off the Phillies.

Thoughts?

(edited title for a bit more clarification - hawing)

[bucks2281]

I'm just hoping for one of the Phillies or Mets to flounder down the stretch ... these two teams have really been playing well for awhile. The Brewers have to outplay only one of them. I think it'll take 91-92 wins.

[bklynbrewcrew]

At this point Im not sure that the Astros arent this years Rockies. They also have a very easy schedule so this thing is really going down to the wire. With the Phillies incredibly easy schedule we really need to split with them and that wont be easy.

[endaround]

BP has been projecting between 92-94 wins for the NL Wild Card for a while now.

[joepepsi]

92-94 wins seemed reachable until the Mets came to town. .....

[davego]

BP is wise.

[jeffy]

I don't think 90 will be enough because I would expect at least one of the three teams trailing the Brewers to finish well. Any one of the three winning about 2/3 of remaining games would get them to 90 wins.

I was reminded by Bill S last night that 90 wins was the goal that Mark A set for the team. Perhaps this means that he will see the season as a success if they finish with 90 wins, but miss the playoffs???

[zzzmanwitz]

I think 90 is enough if we win at least 2 of them in Philly. If we win less than 2 in Philly, we need to win 91 or 92 to make it. I currently have the Brewers winning 10 more games this year. If they do that, Philly has to go 13-4, STL 14-4, Houston 15-3. I'm not panicing.... yet.

[jeffy]

Of course, 10 would put them at 92 wins. 90 would mean 11-6 for Philly, 12-6 for StL, or 12-5 for Houston to tie. I am guessing at least one of those three makes it to 90 wins.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers are still the only wildcard hopefull team to have a projection of over 90 wins . That said, with 3 teams in the 87-89 range, there's a decent chance that one of them finish with 90+. Just eyeballing it, I'd say:

 

90 wins: 50% of wnning the wildcard

91 wins: 65%

92 wins: 85%

93 wins: 99%

 

Isn't there a website that breaks it down like that?

 

Taking into consideration their SOS, BP says that the Brewers finish 9-8, which gives them a 64% chance of the wildcard and 9% chance at the division. What they don't consider, however, is that CC and Sheets start in 8 of the remaining 17 games. That changes the real odds considerably.

[davego]

Wow, that shows the vaule of one game late in the season.

[brewtank34]

I have them at 10 w's in the last 16...but I feel that a few of those may be biased so I could see an 8-8 down the stretch. That would but us at 91. Not so sure that will do it. I see 93 being the #.

[lcbj68c]

I see 93 being the #.

If 93 is the number, do you really see anybody but the Brewers getting there? STL would need to go 15-3, Philly 14-2 and Houston 15-2.

 

I think 90 or 91 will take it. I can't see any of those 3 teams having that kind of run and making it to 93 wins.