Pitching prospects and their potential

[paul253]

I am very impressed with the depth of the Brewers pitching prospects, especially compared to where they were even 3 years ago. However, looking up and down the system I'm wondering how many of them have true #1 or #2 potential. I thought it would be fun to make a list of all the prospects and see where everyone would rank them in terms of potential (especially people with a lot more knowledge on the subject than I have). So of all the listed prospects, list them in terms of either

a) #1 starter

b) 2-3 starter,

c) 4-5 starter

d) bullpen

 

Arnett, Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, Peralta, Scarpetta, Fiers, Anundson, Periard, Rogers, Jeffress, Rivas, Butler, Lofgren and Braddock

 

For my groups I would go

 

Group A

Jeffress (if he can lower his walk total and you know...pass his drug tests)

 

Group B

Arnett, Odorizzi, Rivas, Peralta, and Rogers

 

Group C

Anundson, Butler, Scarpetta, Bucci

 

Group D

Braddock (I think he could be in group A or definitely group B if they moved him back to starter) Periard, Lofgren, Fiers and Heckathorn.

 

Obviously a lot of these guys have a long way to go, and quite of few of them don't have much time in the system, but that's how I see it as of now. Feel free to add any prospects in there that I maybe forgot to mention.

[jjfanec]

Rogers has number 1 potential in my mind. He is much more likely to be a 2/3 guy, but IF he gets his walks down he is dangerous.

Odorizzi could be a Yo type pitcher. I am not sure if Yo is a 1 or a 2.

Scarpetta has potential to be a 2/3 guy.

It is also too early to have Heckathorn as a bullpen guy. They are treating him like a starting prospect and he is succeeding in that role.

 

Other guys to keep an eye on are Maverick Lasker, Del Howell as they are guys who seem to have good stuff but blow-up every once in awhile. Damon Krestalude, Daniel Merklinger are solid pitchers who could become 4/5 guys.

 

In the bullpen you have John Axford.

[logan82]

I am not sure if Yo is a 1 or a 2

 

Yo is definitely a #2. Would need to go deeper into games to be a #1.

 

I think Jeffress will get a chance to start again this year but wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as a reliever. It is the same thing year after year. He needs to get his walks down. To be honest until he does, he might not even make the majors with a good team. He may end up like McClung or Turnbow.

[jjfanec]

I am not sure if Yo is a 1 or a 2

 

Yo is definitely a #2. Would need to go deeper into games to be a #1.

Fair enough. How deep does he have to go to be a 1? He is averaging 6 innings right now. Would 7 be enough? His problem is simple. Walks. That is why on a potential level I think he is still potentially a 1. He strikes guys out, does not get hit that hard, but struggles with walks which keeps his inning down.

[DHonks]

don't forget Peralta.

[twobrewers]

I think Lofgren deserves to be viewed as a potential #5 starter.

 

Heckathorn and Jeffress have a lot in common. Biggest difference is Jeffress' drug past. If Jeffress is an A merely on potential - then Heckathorn probably should be too. (Or you can argue that both are D)

 

Anundsen probably doesn't belong on the list at all.

[logan82]

I am not sure if Yo is a 1 or a 2

 

Yo is definitely a #2. Would need to go deeper into games to be a #1.

Fair enough. How deep does he have to go to be a 1? He is averaging 6 innings right now. Would 7 be enough? His problem is simple. Walks. That is why on a potential level I think he is still potentially a 1. He strikes guys out, does not get hit that hard, but struggles with walks which keeps his inning down.

His average innings per start is good enough. The problem is that when he starts you never feel like he will go the distance like you did whenever Sheets took the mound. When Sheets started you felt like he had a chance to go 9 innings on almost any night. When Gallardo starts you hope he can go 7. I think he might get there but I don't think he is yet. I would like to note that Gallardo's walk totals were decent previous to 2009.

[paul253]

don't forget Peralta.

Peralta was in there. I listed him in the 2-3 range.

It seems like a common theme amongst a lot of our guys is walks. Rogers, Jeffress and Yo all have #1 stuff but need to bring their walk totals down.

[paul253]

What is the deal with Eric Arnett? Another rough outing today. Is he just not as good as we thought he was? I realize it's still early and he's only made 6 starts now, but he seems to be getting hit pretty hard. 5 home runs and 29 hits in 24 innings. It doesn't seem like a college pitcher who was a first round pick should struggle this much in low A ball.

[nate82]

His average innings per start is good enough. The problem is that when he starts you never feel like he will go the distance like you did whenever Sheets took the mound. When Sheets started you felt like he had a chance to go 9 innings on almost any night. When Gallardo starts you hope he can go 7. I think he might get there but I don't think he is yet. I would like to note that Gallardo's walk totals were decent previous to 2009.

I don't see many young pitchers other than Lincecum that will give a solid 9 innings almost every game in the majors right now. Pitchers like Sheets are rare you don't find that many anymore that can seriously give you 9 innings almost every night. Greinke and Felix come to mind as others but that is only 3 young pitchers who can give you 9 innings whenever they pitch.

 

What

is the deal with Eric Arnett? Another rough outing today. Is he just

not as good as we thought he was? I realize it's still early and he's

only made 6 starts now, but he seems to be getting hit pretty hard. 5

home runs and 29 hits in 24 innings. It doesn't seem like a college

pitcher who was a first round pick should struggle this much in low A

ball.

I'm going to chalk it up to the weather

being not so nice. Once it starts to warm up I think you will see

Arnett pitch better.

[logan82]

I didn't say almost every game. I said I didn't feel that when Gallardo takes the mound there is much chance he will go 9 innings. Bush is the only one I feel could go nine innings. With Gallardo you feel good if he goes 7. His pitch counts are almost always high by the 4th.

[pete]

Bush averages a little over 6 innings per start in his career. He hasn't pitched 9 innings since '06.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about the potential of Brooks Hall? Group B would be my guess, though without any pro date, it's a blind throw at a dartboard.

[strawbossisevil]

I'm a bit higher on Scarpetta than you Paul. I think his ceiling could be a 2/3 if everything falls together for him.

[paul253]

Let's hope so. He seems to have some control issues as well though. I don't understand why so many pitchers are having such issues with control.