NL Cy Young - let's just say

[TauPentaRei]

COMPLETELY for the sake of imagination...

 

Would 19-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 200K do the trick? (yes yes, all very rudimentary, un-sophisticated stats for the grey beards at the Cy polling station)

 

I am not naming any names. I am just counting up the starts* remaining by a certain someone who happens to be pitching ridiculously-gargantuanly, has it ALL put together (finally), rolls into the last quarter (!) of the season with a relatively fresh arm, has all the stats progressing to the mean and, yes, I'm extrapolating at an unfairly optimistic clip... but what if we were in for something truly magical in September?

 

*CHC x2, PIT x2, HOU, PHI, COL (roughly) ((lots of days off on the schedule and a critical setting of ye olde OCT rotation))

 

Who in the NL would grab the hardware over a 18-5 record and a 3 ERA?

 

Probably Halladay's to lose at this point, huh? Let's cheer for that guy getting roughed up.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't see it. In my view, the guy who has the best chance to unseat Halladay is going at Miller Park tomorrow, and it's not Estrada.

[razzzorsharp]

Tim Dillard?

[Glennron]

Even if Greinke gets to your hypothetical numbers, he still wouldn't deserve it over Halladay. Regardless of what stats you use, there's Roy Halladay, and then there's every other pitcher in the National League.

[Ennder]

There isn't a Brewer pitcher even sniffing at the top 5 for NL CY right now.

[BrewerTerp]

let's just say halladay has already won.

[burniebrewer]

If Johnny Cueto had more starts, he would be in the discussion, no?

 

His numbers to date: 19 GS, 128 IP, 9-5 1.89 ERA.

[theavrock]

The Brewers rotation has been extremely solid but none of them have been outstanding or are having a Cy Young type season.

 

Halladay should win it and deservedly so. Dude has been filthy mcnasty.

[TheCrew]

Only way Halladay doesn't win is if he implodes over the next month or if one of the top NL pitchers did something crazy/unheard of - i.e. lincecum throwing back-to-back no hitters.

 

If Cueto hadn't missed the first month of the season, it's be a lot closer.

[Invader3K]

Only way Halladay doesn't win is if he implodes over the next month

This. Halladay is going to win and it's not really going to be close.

[jjfanec]

Greinke has great chance to win the much less coveted 2nd Half NL Cy Young that I am sure some sports websites will handout. But if anyone wins it over Halladay it will be a huge shock. Only Lincecum has put up better numbers than Zach's 47 IP, 35 H, 13 BB, 8 ER, 52 K, 1.01 WHIP, and 1.52 ERA. Lincecum is a little better in the ERA but outside of that they have really comparable numbers. Cueto is close but his strikeout numbers are nowhere near as impressive as the other two

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think Halladay's a lock. Favorite, yes, lock no. He's allowed 25 hits in 22 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts. Phillies have some good offensive teams on their remaining schedule including the Brewers who knocked him around pretty good the last time they faced him.

 

Lee, Hamels, Lincecum, Kershaw and Kennedy should all still be in the discussion.

[endaround]

Almost all pitchers allow a hit an inning. 25 hits in 22 1/3 tells us nothing.

[TheCrew]

Yeah, Kennedy could be a dark horse - DBacks end up winning the west and he continues to pitch well, he would have a shot but I still say Halladay would have to pitch poorly over the next month.

 

Halladay may have given up 25 hits in his last 3 starts, but he also went 2-1 and struck out 25 and only walked 4. He easily could have been 3-0 during that stretch too, was left in to pitch the 9th the other night after throwing 100 pitches and gave up the lead (although he did K 14 in that game).

[ninja33]

Halladay is the favorite, but I don't think he's head and shoulders above the competition. Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Kershaw, and Lincecum all have ERAs between 2.53 (Halladay) and 2.84 (Lee). All have a WHIP between 0.99 (Hamels) and 1.15 (Lincecum). And they all have impressive K rates, Kershaws being the best (9.89) and Hamels being the lowest at 8.11. Lincecum probably gets unfairly downgraded due to his 11-9 record, but everyone else has 13-15 wins. It's a close race.

[bjkrautk]

How many saves would Axford have to have at seasons' end to factor into the discussion? He's saved 32 consecutive games at this point...if he gets up to 45 in a row (which would put his season total at 49), and / or gets his ERA under 2, I suspect he'd at least draw some votes.

 

 

Honestly, more than a Cy Young award, I'd just like to see one of the Brewers starters close out the season as the first 20-game winner this team has had in a long time (since Higuera, if memory serves).

[DuWayne Steurer]

Halladay gets it, unless he tanks. (which he won't do)

 

He's Hollywood right now, doesn't matter what anyone else is doing.

 

I'll bet most sportswriters who are based more than 500 miles from Phoenix don't even know who Kennedy is.

 

Lincecum gets good pub, but Halladay is the guy that most of the voters are going to look at, simply based on past performance.

[cwolf2012]

"How many saves would Axford have to have at seasons' end to factor into the discussion? He's saved 32 consecutive games at this point...if he gets up to 45 in a row (which would put his season total at 49), and / or gets his ERA under 2, I suspect he'd at least draw some votes."

 

According to an ESPN podcast, he's not even in the top 8 closers in the game.

[The Mexican Weez]

"How many saves would Axford have to have at seasons' end to factor into the discussion? He's saved 32 consecutive games at this point...if he gets up to 45 in a row (which would put his season total at 49), and / or gets his ERA under 2, I suspect he'd at least draw some votes."

 

According to an ESPN podcast, he's not even in the top 8 closers in the game.

so would those eight be "whoever is closing for Boston, New York, New York, Philadelphia, Altanta, Tampa, Florida, and maybe the Dodgers"?

 

edit - forgot to put in blue

[TauPentaRei]

I don't see it. In my view, the guy who has the best chance to unseat Halladay is going at Miller Park tomorrow, and it's not Estrada.

 

uh, yeah... what he said

[GAME05]

How many saves would Axford have to have at seasons' end to factor into the discussion?

K-Rod was never really considered in his record year, and Lidge had a perfect year in the Phillies' WS year and didn't get a mention. no way Axford even enters into the conversation, especially considering a lot of his saves have been close calls and not the no-chance 1-2-3 innings that Eckersley got in his MVP season. it seems like you're at an immediate disadvantage with the Cy Young if you're a closer and not a starter to begin with.

[jmeks23]

If Greinke's ERA and maybe wins as well (since the voters care about that for some reason) were better he would probably get a lot of votes because of that K/BB ratio. Incredible man.