College Basketball Thread 2015-16

[patrickgpe]

 

Seriously, it's hilarious watching all the experts at ESPN and CBS pick their brackets. I don't think i've seen a single upset outside of a 9 beating an 8 (and I think three 9's are favored in Vegas)

 

it would appear that there are very few hot upset picks like normal, i know there will be some but there isn't that potential cinderella that everyone is talking about.

[fondybrewfan]

I thin UW got a reasonable draw. They are better than Pitt and they have a fighting chance against Xavier. Out of all the 2 seeds they are the weakest IMO.

 

Everybody and their mom is picking Michigan St. IDK maybe it just seem to obvious. Virginia did get screwed over having to play in the Chicago regional against primarily Midwest competition including MSU and Purdue.

 

My very preliminary picks are Kansas (Region just looks easy), Oklahoma (IMO toss up between OK, Oregon, and A&M. I will probably flip), Virginia, and West Virginia.

[MrTPlush]

I have always been back and forth on West Virginia. They are a team I could easily see making the Final Four, but I just don't think they are balanced enough to do it. Yes they press the whole game and randomly trap, but any half competent team can overcome that. Not to mention it gives other teams easy baskets and open 3s. They have no perimeter game and I just can't see them winning without one.

 

I just don't think that is a good blue print to win 4 games in a row to get into the Final Four.

[MrTPlush]

Kansas is currently the most popular pick to win it all at 22% according to ESPN and Michigan State is picked on approximately 19.5% of brackets.

[Baldkin]

I have always been back and forth on West Virginia. They are a team I could easily see making the Final Four, but I just don't think they are balanced enough to do it. Yes they press the whole game and randomly trap, but any half competent team can overcome that. Not to mention it gives other teams easy baskets and open 3s. They have no perimeter game and I just can't see them winning without one.

 

I just don't think that is a good blue print to win 4 games in a row to get into the Final Four.

 

I think if the Badgers make it, and play WVU, they might lose by 40.....

[fondybrewfan]

Just look at WV's schedule. They have played a lot of really good teams and won a lot of them. They gave Kansas all they could handle. If they run into a team that has an incredible backcourt they could have trouble but I don't see that in the East. They certainly count on the press a lot but I think their half court offense is a lot better this year than it has been in the past. Very balanced.

 

UW would really struggle with that press. They don't have the ball handlers or the really strong shooters or finishers on the break. If they did break the press they wouldn't have much time to run the swing either.

[MrTPlush]

I have always been back and forth on West Virginia. They are a team I could easily see making the Final Four, but I just don't think they are balanced enough to do it. Yes they press the whole game and randomly trap, but any half competent team can overcome that. Not to mention it gives other teams easy baskets and open 3s. They have no perimeter game and I just can't see them winning without one.

 

I just don't think that is a good blue print to win 4 games in a row to get into the Final Four.

 

I think if the Badgers make it, and play WVU, they might lose by 40.....

 

Well yah a lot of it depends on match ups. North Carolina and Kentucky specifically are teams I think would have good odds vs. WVU. They might be able to get Kentucky to turn it over enough to win though. I am not hating on the pick for anyone making it because they are a good non 1/2 seed to make it.

 

I mean heck someone could take #5 Maryland to the Final Four and that would be acceptable. There are no dominant #1 seeds this year so it could really open up the door...especially if one of them manages to lose before the Sweet 16.

[MrTPlush]

Seriously, it's hilarious watching all the experts at ESPN and CBS pick their brackets. I don't think i've seen a single upset outside of a 9 beating an 8 (and I think three 9's are favored in Vegas)

 

They are looking at each match up and picking a winner based on who is better. That alone is going to make almost every higher seed win. The only upsets are going to be bad match ups or teams seeded inaccurately.

 

On another note I feel like Texas A&M will bust my bracket. They have 7 losses to teams worse than 50 in the RPI rankings...yikes. I like that team and how they play, but I am pretty concerned looking at them on paper.

[DHonks]

MrTPlush, I think it shows a lack of creativity on their behalf.

 

Last I checked, 7 low seeds favored over higher (better) seeds. Pretty crazy as I've only seen that a handful of times in the years I've gone to Vegas for MM

[davego]

Am I wrong to pick Oklahoma to win the whole thing in a couple of brackets?

[MrTPlush]

Last I checked, 7 low seeds favored over higher (better) seeds. Pretty crazy as I've only seen that a handful of times in the years I've gone to Vegas for MM

 

Only real upset picks I saw were VCU and Gonzaga winning. If you call a #9 seed winning against an #8 an upset....well...lol.

 

What do you want them to do? Do what we do? Just flip a coin and see what sticks?

[MrTPlush]

Am I wrong to pick Oklahoma to win the whole thing in a couple of brackets?

 

Oklahoma is really good and a fine dark horse to win it. My problem is I see both Kansas and Michigan State making the Final Four. If that is the two teams they would have to play to win it all I just can't see it.

[fondybrewfan]

I am pretty sure one of Kansas and MSU is not going to make it; something crazy will happen. Unfortunately for me I am not sure which one that is. MSU playing in Chicago is such a monumental advantage. They will basically have home court. But Virginia and Purdue could both beat them and maybe Utah could.

 

Kansas will run into Maryland or Cal which are both very talented. If they get by that game I don't see anyone on the bottom 1/2 of that bracket beating them.

 

I think OK will make the Final 4. I think they have a relatively easy road to the Elite 8; I don't buy Texas A&M at all.

 

I have WV out of the East but that is the death bracket were about 5 different teams could potentially make it out.

[Funketown]

Kenpom ratings of top five teams:

 

South:

{1, 5, 13, 21, 23}

 

West:

{9, 8, 17, 22, 24}

 

East:

{4, 15, 6, 7, 14}

 

Midwest:

{2, 3, 29, 18, 10}

 

They did a horrible job with the Pac-12. I have no idea how Utah is justified as a 3-seed, or Oregon State as a 7-seed for that matter. Indiana, Purdue, Kentucky, and I'm sure at least a few others are more deserving of the 3. It's hard for me to reconcile Oregon's non-conference schedule with that of a #1 seed (two sub-100 losses). Realistically Virginia probably is one of the four best teams in the country, so there's no problem with me on that one, but giving a #1 to Oregon instead of Michigan State is pretty silly. Duke was given a gift of a bracket, and as much as I hate to say it they have a pretty decent chance of getting out of it.

[MrTPlush]

Pac-12 is going to be at the end of multiple upsets....so many teams seeded wrong.

 

Anyone have a lower seed they are taking deep into the tourney? I have #6 Arizona making it to the Elite 8. No reason other than the fact I like them over Miami and the fact I don't like Villanova making it to the Elite 8. I just swept Arizona's garbage resume under the carpet.

[fondybrewfan]

I think you are pretty nuts taking AZ to the Elite 8. They just haven't looked good whenever I watch them. I agree that Villanova is going nowhere fast but I would rather take Miami or Wichita St / Vandy to the Elite 8 than Arizona.

[MrTPlush]

That's true, but then again when does the tournament ever make sense? I took Arizona because they have the talent and my bracket got too boring. What's the fun in having a similar (horrible) bracket to someone else?

[FVBrewerFan]

Captain Obvious here, I know, but it really comes down to who's hot or not for the entire tourney, or even one game. A #1 or #2 seed could lose in the 2nd round to a team that just shoots the lights out and/or they have a bad game themselves. Now that has an effect on the rest of that bracket for the remainder of the tourney.

 

I mention this, because this makes predicting impossible- either for us or the experts. It WILL happen to someone, but it's nothing more than guessing to predict which team has that happen to them.

 

I'm not saying the whole tourney is a crap shoot, don't get me wrong. But we give ourselves too much pain when we get a team wrong. If I pick Mich St or Kansas to win it all and they lose in the 2nd or 3rd round, it doesn't mean it was a stupid pick, it means they got upset and that happens. Some of these upsets you can predict more than others, and that's what pools are all about. Like I said...Captain Obvious. But just look at all the teams we could legitimately say COULD make a run to the Final 4. It's a pretty long list this year.

[MrTPlush]

A good read on some of the head scratching moves this year:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/112470/the-committee-got-so-much-wrong-and-here-is-how

[fondybrewfan]

Got Oklahoma, Wichita St, West Virginia, and Texas Tech at my auction last night. Go Big 12!!!!

[Funketown]

Gonzaga and Wichita State are two #11's that I think I can see making the sweet 16. Gonzaga is a 1.5 point favorite vs. Seton Hall and then faces a weak #3 in Utah, while Wichita State faces a tougher route but is very highly rated by Pomeroy and ESPN's BPI. I also think Stephen F. Austin may be a good bet if you're looking to be a bit crazier.

[superfly]

Wichita St and Gonzaga are S-16 bound I think, and if they get A&M on an off day Northern Iowa could push for it too...they're nasty.

[MrTPlush]

I erased Arizona out of my Elite 8 and have them losing first round. However I don't have WSU going to the S16.

 

I have Seton Hall upsetting Gonzaga. I refuse the hype and will instead have Seton Hall making the S16

 

My one big upset is UNI. I like some of the other potential upsets, but don't want to pick too many. Picking too many usually kills a bracket.

[yoshii8]

Rob Jeter just got fired by UWM. To me, it seems like he hasn't done anything in a while, so I'm not surprised. But according to twitter this is the worst decision ever.

[nodakfan17]

^

Billy Donlon at Wright State was let go too. Linc Darner has raised the bar in the Horizon League.