2020 Miscellaneous NFL News

[FVBrewerFan]

The Packers don’t really have the cap space for a splashy trade.

 

They have about $6 million in cap space this year and $4 million in cap space next year (assuming the salary cap stays the same). That means they have $4 million to sign all of their draft picks, plus Aaron Jones, David Bahktiari, Corey Linsley, and Kevin King. Sure, they’ll get some relief by cutting and re-structuring, but the money has been spent. The free agency splurge in 2019 (Z. Smith, P. Smith, Amos, and Turner) will cost the Packers a combined $54 million in 2021. Add Rodgers ($36mm) and Adams ($16mm) and you have 6 players taking up 58% of next year’s cap. It’s hard to argue with the results, but I wouldn’t count on a big trade due to the financial situation.

 

I wouldn’t mind seeing the Packers use mid to late round picks to patch holes in the current roster, assuming they are contenders going into the trade deadline.

 

This made me check out the Packers salary cap, I haven't looked at 2021 in quite a while. WOW. This is probably the worst position they've been in cap wise in many years. Not only do they have very little cap space, their options for increasing it are really limited. In the past there were always a couple of big cap guys who could be cut without a lot of dead cap money. Not next year. It will be tough to sign one of those guys, let alone 2 or 3 of them or sign a FA of an significance. You can free up $8MM cutting Smith, but hard to see them eating $10MM in dead cap to do that.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, not much leeway there, barring some serious Russ Ball cap maneuvering that may be possible that we're just unaware of.

 

They can free up ~$9-10mil moving on from Lowry and Kirksey, so that's something.

[nodakfan17]

Yeah, it’s bad. They can probably extend their competitive window another year by cutting (Kirksey, P. Smith, and either Wagner or Turner) and re-structuring (Adams, Amos, and Z. Smith), but those are short-term fixes. Eventually, there will have to be a salary cap repair year. You can’t argue with the results during during this 17-3 run, but there’s a trade off.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, it’s bad. They can probably extend their competitive window another year by cutting (Kirksey, P. Smith, and either Wagner or Turner) and re-structuring (Adams, Amos, and Z. Smith), but those are short-term fixes. Eventually, there will have to be a salary cap repair year. You can’t argue with the results during during this 17-3 run, but there’s a trade off.

 

Second draft related hot take- they not only drafted with the intention of the guys they took having little contribution this year, but they also did so with this 'cap reckoning' in mind....

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, it’s bad. They can probably extend their competitive window another year by cutting (Kirksey, P. Smith, and either Wagner or Turner) and re-structuring (Adams, Amos, and Z. Smith), but those are short-term fixes. Eventually, there will have to be a salary cap repair year. You can’t argue with the results during during this 17-3 run, but there’s a trade off.

 

Second draft related hot take- they not only drafted with the intention of the guys they took having little contribution this year, but they also did so with this 'cap reckoning' in mind....

 

Aaron Jones is playing himself into a massive contract. I wonder if there's a chance that he'll be franchise tagged, then dealt?

[nodakfan17]

Assuming the cap stays flat (remember, it could go down) and they use the $4 million in available cap space next year to sign their draft class, realistically, how much cap space can they create through *magic* (strategically cutting and re-structuring)? Remember, cutting guys only relieves you of their non-guaranteed money. It also accelerates the remaining amortized portion of their signing bonus into the current year. Often times, the immediate net savings is not all that significant. Realistically, I think they can only re-sign Bakhtiari, which means Jones, Linsley, and King all walk. Best case scenario, they have to let Jones walk, but can scrounge up enough to keep Williams.

[PeaveyFury]

Assuming the cap stays flat (remember, it could go down) and they use the $4 million in available cap space next year to sign their draft class, realistically, how much cap space can they create through *magic* (strategically cutting and re-structuring)?

 

Kirksey- $6million savings

Lowry- $3.3 million

Wagner (keeping Turner)- $4.25 million savings

 

= $13.5 million. Definitely enough to sign Bakh, but as you say, not much else via cuts. You also don't lose much by letting these guys go, assuming you can address LB/OT depth in the draft, and Lowry is just a d-line warm body.

 

Restructures? Depends on what the Smiths would be willing to do. There's probably $15-18 million there if they restructure, but I'm less confident of that.

[nodakfan17]

Assuming the cap stays flat (remember, it could go down) and they use the $4 million in available cap space next year to sign their draft class, realistically, how much cap space can they create through *magic* (strategically cutting and re-structuring)?

 

Kirksey- $6million savings

Lowry- $3.3 million

Wagner (keeping Turner)- $4.25 million savings

 

= $13.5 million. Definitely enough to sign Bakh, but as you say, not much else via cuts. You also don't lose much by letting these guys go, assuming you can address LB/OT depth in the draft, and Lowry is just a d-line warm body.

 

Restructures? Depends on what the Smiths would be willing to do. There's probably $15-18 million there if they restructure, but I'm less confident of that.

 

I’m not suggesting they’d take a pay cut. By ‘restructuring,’ I’m saying they’ll convert future salary to a signing bonus, which allows the team to push the cap hit out because the signing bonus is amortized over the remaining life of the contract. What player would object to receiving a portion of next year’s salary today? For the team, it provides short-term cap relief, but eventually, it all comes due in-full.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think Aaron Jones is on the team next year. You can't pay market value for a 5'9" RB when your QB is on a $100 million guaranteed deal. The wrinkle here though is that Williams is also a UFA. I think the Packers would be totally fine moving forward with Dillon and Williams but it may be Dillon and someone else. If you have to make the difficult call to let someone go due to cap constraints, RB is going to be at the top of the list.

 

Adams is a UFA after next season by the way. I just can't see a way they keep Jones around because I don't see him as their priority amidst all these other guys. Not when they used a 2nd round pick on his position.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think Aaron Jones is on the team next year. You can't pay market value for a 5'9" RB when your QB is on a $100 million guaranteed deal. The wrinkle here though is that Williams is also a UFA. I think the Packers would be totally fine moving forward with Dillon and Williams but it may be Dillon and someone else. If you have to make the difficult call to let someone go due to cap constraints, RB is going to be at the top of the list.

 

Adams is a UFA after next season by the way. I just can't see a way they keep Jones around because I don't see him as their priority amidst all these other guys. Not when they used a 2nd round pick on his position.

 

Exactly. Some team is going to back up a Brinks truck for Jones, and that team probably cannot be the Packers, unless they want to turn into the salary cap hellscape that is the Minnesota Vikings. Williams isn't nearly as dynamic as Jones, but he's still a very good RB. I think Dillon was drafted exactly for that scenario playing out.

 

I still think there's a chance that they franchise Jones and deal him, though, rather than just let him walk for a compensatory 3rd rounder.

[CheezWizHed]

I believe Jones, King, and Linsely will all be gone next year. Going into this year, I assumed Dillon was drafted for next year more than this year. I love Jones, but the history of the league says you don't pay RBs big money. There are some exceptions in history (Jones probably wants a Marshall Faulk comp...), but we are a passing league and RB lifespans rarely justify it.

 

I could see Turner being cut - though he seems to be playing better this year than last.

 

But the biggest bang available.... wait for it... extend Rodgers. I'm not going to try to theorize how or future impacts because I'm not cap expert. But:

- The way Rodgers is playing now, it would be foolish to switch to Love in a year or two (if he continued his 2018-2019 decline - yes, but not now).

- I think Rodgers would be open to helping the team as he is having fun and really playing well. Just not sure how much...

- Rodger's contract is the poison pill that is causing most of our cap difficulties.

[jerichoholicninja]

Titans and Patriots with more positive COVID tests.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There is always dealing Rodgers next offseason to create cap room...99 percent of me is kidding with things all roses and butterflies so far this season, but stranger things have happened.

 

The thing is, if the salary cap stays flat or declines due to reduced league revenues, a very likely scenario, then a LOT of teams will be in salary cap hell. Most big contracts are set up under the assumption there's no way league revenues will ever drop - thats likely to change across the board. For the NFL, it wouldn't surprise me if they figure out a way to have an emergency 1-2 uncapped seasons until league revenues stabilize. If they don't, there are going to be a ton of players cut or forced to restructure deals that wind up costing them alot of $.

[PeaveyFury]

A tag-and-trade of Jones makes a lot of sense to me, if feasible. It's been so long since the Packers used one of their tags, I haven't kept up on the details.

[PeaveyFury]

There is always dealing Rodgers next offseason to create cap room....

 

Oddly, the way Rodgers' contract is currently structured, they'd only free up ~$4-5 million next year if they trade him. Their real 'out' is AFTER the 2021 season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There is always dealing Rodgers next offseason to create cap room....

 

Oddly, the way Rodgers' contract is currently structured, they'd only free up ~$4-5 million next year if they trade him.

 

That's right - I got a season ahead of myself remembering when Clark's deal really jumps and makes it almost impossible for the Packers to have both him and Rodgers on the roster with their current deals.

 

On a non salary cap related but still bad note for the Packers - the Vikings look like they got a really good WR in Jefferson - impressive the last couple weeks with how he is torching press man coverage as a rookie WR

[PeaveyFury]

I’m not suggesting they’d take a pay cut. By ‘restructuring,’ I’m saying they’ll convert future salary to a signing bonus, which allows the team to push the cap hit out because the signing bonus is amortized over the remaining life of the contract.

 

No, I follow you. If we're assuming that the Smiths would be on board, you can conceivably free up ~$3 million more from Preston Smith and ~$4 million from Z. Combined, that's less than you'd save from just cutting Preston.

[wildcat83]

Sounds like "Snacks" is signing with Seattle without even taking his visit to Green Bay.

[nodakfan17]

I’m not suggesting they’d take a pay cut. By ‘restructuring,’ I’m saying they’ll convert future salary to a signing bonus, which allows the team to push the cap hit out because the signing bonus is amortized over the remaining life of the contract.

 

No, I follow you. If we're assuming that the Smiths would be on board, you can conceivably free up ~$3 million more from Preston Smith and ~$4 million from Z. Combined, that's less than you'd save from just cutting Preston.

 

Does Preston Smith have trade value? Assuming the Packers eat the amortized signing bonus at the time of trade, his contract becomes a bit more palatable to a team who potentially trades for him.

[PeaveyFury]

No, I follow you. If we're assuming that the Smiths would be on board, you can conceivably free up ~$3 million more from Preston Smith and ~$4 million from Z. Combined, that's less than you'd save from just cutting Preston.

 

Does Preston Smith have trade value? Assuming the Packers eat the amortized signing bonus at the time of trade, his contract becomes a bit more palatable to a team who potentially trades for him.

 

They structured Preston's deal a bit odd in the fact that he received a relatively low signing bonus relative to his base salaries in the back end of the deal. You'd have to bank on a team thinking that even with the Packers eating the pro-rated signing bonus, that he's worth a $12m cap hit in 2021 and a $12.5 mil cap hit in 2022. His drop off this year has been fairly huge thus far, so it remains to be seen whether that's a 4-game anomaly or the start of a downward trend.

[nodakfan17]

Thanks, I did not know that about Preston’s contract. It’s good to know the Packers have an out, if necessary. That’s the nature of free agency. You hit on some, but not others.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

A tag-and-trade of Jones makes a lot of sense to me, if feasible. It's been so long since the Packers used one of their tags, I haven't kept up on the details.

 

Packers tagged and traded Corey Williams to the Browns back in 2008 for a 2nd rounder. The last player to receive the franchise tag was Ryan Pickett in 2010, and that was only for a short period while they worked out a long-term deal.

[PeaveyFury]

Thanks, I did not know that about Preston’s contract. It’s good to know the Packers have an out, if necessary. That’s the nature of free agency. You hit on some, but not others.

 

Honestly, today is the first time since he signed that I actually looked at the structure of his contract. It's actually apparent now that the Packers only intended it to be a 2-year deal even when it was signed. I see very, very little way they keep him on the roster with a $16 million cap hit in each of the next two seasons. He's either restructured or gone this off season.

[nodakfan17]

A tag-and-trade of Jones makes a lot of sense to me, if feasible. It's been so long since the Packers used one of their tags, I haven't kept up on the details.

 

Packers tagged and traded Corey Williams to the Browns back in 2008 for a 2nd rounder. The last player to receive the franchise tag was Ryan Pickett in 2010, and that was only for a short period while they worked out a long-term deal.

Honestly, tagging and trading Aaron Jones for a second round pick is probably the best possible scenario short of Jones signing an extremely team friendly deal.

[nodakfan17]

Thanks, I did not know that about Preston’s contract. It’s good to know the Packers have an out, if necessary. That’s the nature of free agency. You hit on some, but not others.

 

Honestly, today is the first time since he signed that I actually looked at the structure of his contract. It's actually apparent now that the Packers only intended it to be a 2-year deal even when it was signed. I see very, very little way they keep him on the roster with a $16 million cap hit in each of the next two seasons. He's either restructured or gone this off season.

 

FWIW, Over The Cap says Preston Smith’s 2021 cap number is $16 million. If they cut him, there would be $8 million in dead money, but $8 million in savings. His 2022 cap number is $16.5 million with only $4 million in dead money and $12.5 million in potential savings.