Report: D-Backs sign Corbin Carroll to 8 year $111 million extension

[MrTPlush]

18 hours ago, homer said:

I've seen a few pundits say they think Carroll will regret signing this deal. 

Doubt it. Imagine being able to sit on a $111mil pile of cash and comfortably just play. Instead of playing three years just to get a couple million hoping you don’t end up sucking and/or have some career altering injury.

Also, if he is in any position to think about regretting this deal..,he will be hitting FA to probably go make half a billion. At which point I don’t see what there is to complain about.

[monty57]

20 hours ago, homer said:

I've seen a few pundits say they think Carroll will regret signing this deal. 

How many of those pundits were offered a deal at 18/19 years of age that set them up so even if they got injured tomorrow and never worked another day in their life, they would still be one of the richest people on the planet?

[monty57]

The Brewers should absolutely use this as a template for a Chourio deal. I think it's safe to say that they plan to bring him up either this September or early next year. If they can sign him to this deal starting next year, he can be up on opening day and the team has gained extra years of control and cost certainty for a guy who looks to be a star they can build around.

Then, they can work on Peralta/Ashby-style extensions for some of their other prospects, and they'll have a nice core group locked up long-term.

[MrTPlush]

19 minutes ago, monty57 said:

The Brewers should absolutely use this as a template for a Chourio deal. I think it's safe to say that they plan to bring him up either this September or early next year. If they can sign him to this deal starting next year, he can be up on opening day and the team has gained extra years of control and cost certainty for a guy who looks to be a star they can build around.

Then, they can work on Peralta/Ashby-style extensions for some of their other prospects, and they'll have a nice core group locked up long-term.

Then probably have 25%+ of the payroll going to Christian Yelich and prospects that flop. All while having no cheap pre-arby contracts on the books.

[homer]

57 minutes ago, monty57 said:

How many of those pundits were offered a deal at 18/19 years of age that set them up so even if they got injured tomorrow and never worked another day in their life, they would still be one of the richest people on the planet?

He's 22 and it's a matter of scale and what the market will pay. Why not sign for $50 million if all you're looking to do is get set up for life? Heck why not sign for $10 million? Point is some people (NOT ME) think he didn't get enough. Obviously there are many guys that prefer the security over other potential 20% bump in lifetime earnings.

[monty57]

37 minutes ago, homer said:

He's 22 and it's a matter of scale and what the market will pay. Why not sign for $50 million if all you're looking to do is get set up for life? Heck why not sign for $10 million? Point is some people (NOT ME) think he didn't get enough. Obviously there are many guys that prefer the security over other potential 20% bump in lifetime earnings.

You may be talking about Carroll, I was talking about Chourio, who was born 3/11/2004, so he turns 19 in 2 days.

From previous posts, I think we agree on our take on extensions.

I was just pointing out that generally speaking the "some people" who like to argue this were never put in that position. They're probably a bunch of old guys who are still working because they haven't saved enough to retire and they're shouting that young players should go year-to-year to maximize their potential return.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, monty57 said:

You may be talking about Carroll, I was talking about Chourio, who was born 3/11/2004, so he turns 19 in 2 days.

From previous posts, I think we agree on our take on extensions.

I was just pointing out that generally speaking the "some people" who like to argue this were never put in that position. They're probably a bunch of old guys who are still working because they haven't saved enough to retire and they're shouting that young players should go year-to-year to maximize their potential return.

Never mind that we're not talking about robots here. Maybe Carroll just likes Arizona and knowingly "sacrificed" many millions of dollars to stay a place he likes and feels comfortable.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Then probably have 25%+ of the payroll going to Christian Yelich and prospects that flop. All while having no cheap pre-arby contracts on the books.

Yelich's contract goes through 2028 (not including option buyout and deferred money). The Chourio extension I mentioned would start in 2024. The first six years of any of these extensions will still be cheaper than the final "free agent" years, and probably cheaper than they would be expected to get if they went year-to-year to maximize their potential pay. by the time he'd get more expensive, Yelich would be gone.

Ashby/Peralta-type deals never really get too expensive (Freddie's making $3.735M this year, and $5.735M next year before the option years kick in). Again, the point of guaranteeing the extension money is that you pay less than what you would expect to pay without the guaranteed extension.

Therefore, Chourio and others who would sign would still be in their "cheap" years while Yelich was still under contract. Some of the players may underperform, while others would overperform. However, the team would have cost certainty on these players and would be able to budget accordingly.

Most of the prospects probably won't take a Peralta-style extension, although the thought that Chourio and others are locked in may help sway them to accept. The ones that do should easily fit into the budget for the "Yelich years." A Woodruff/Burnes/Adames extension would be far more burdensome on payroll than these extensions would be, as they would be really expensive at the same time Yelich is making $26M/year.

I think that with a few of these deals in place, there would still be money left over for some 1-2 year free agent signings to fill in the inevitable holes in the roster.

[monty57]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Never mind that we're not talking about robots here. Maybe Carroll just likes Arizona and knowingly "sacrificed" many millions of dollars to stay a place he likes and feels comfortable.

No, they're not robots. They're kids who are being offered a chance to lock in a guaranteed life-changing sum of money vs. shouldering the risk injury or underperformance to potentially make more.

They are going to be facing pressures from all sides, so they really need to rely on their agents to give them good advice, and hopefully they have some other people in their lives they can trust to help guide them through this. It's a huge decision that most people will never have to confront. 

I understand and respect the player for whichever decision they choose (taking the guaranteed money or going year-to-year). The thought that some "pundits" will deride them for the choice they make shows the character of the pundits.

I just think that it would be prudent of the Brewers to explore the option and offer what they think makes sense for them. The prospects will each make their own individual decisions on whether or not to take the offers, and the Brewers should then act accordingly. If they sign an extension, the team knows they have a core piece to build around. If they choose to go year-to-year, the team needs to understand that the player will be trying to maximize their earnings, so they should look to trade them when they're in their arby years.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

The Brewers should absolutely use this as a template for a Chourio deal. I think it's safe to say that they plan to bring him up either this September or early next year. If they can sign him to this deal starting next year, he can be up on opening day and the team has gained extra years of control and cost certainty for a guy who looks to be a star they can build around.

Then, they can work on Peralta/Ashby-style extensions for some of their other prospects, and they'll have a nice core group locked up long-term.

Let's pump the brakes a bit and acknowledge Corbin Carroll has been a significantly better player than Chourio so far in their career.  In 657 minor league PAs Carroll has put up a .310/.426/.588 line.  Chourio in 628 PAs is .290/.355/.512.

Hard to believe it, but Chourio would have to actually up his game to reach Corbin Carroll like production. There is nothing wrong with signing players to team friendly extensions, but I think they'll be a little more shrewd before handing out a 100 million dollar guarantee. 

 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

Let's pump the brakes a bit and acknowledge Corbin Carroll has been a significantly better player than Chourio so far in their career.  In 657 minor league PAs Carroll has put up a .310/.426/.588 line.  Chourio in 628 PAs is .290/.355/.512.

Hard to believe it, but Chourio would have to actually up his game to reach Corbin Carroll like production. There is nothing wrong with signing players to team friendly extensions, but I think they'll be a little more shrewd before handing out a 100 million dollar guarantee. 

 

Carroll has also been significantly older. His minor league stats encompass ages 18-21, Chourio’s cover ages 17-18.

If Jackson has another big summer, culminating in a taste of MLB in September, I would guess a 2024 extension would come in closer to Wander Franco terms than what Corbin just signed for.

[jerichoholicninja]

At some point the union is going to start complaining about these deals aren't they? In Tom Glavine's book he talks about wanting to stay with the Braves and not wanting to sign with the Mets but the Mets offer was so much more he didn't want to anger the union by taking an offer that was below market value especially since he was a player rep. 

[sveumrules]

22 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

At some point the union is going to start complaining about these deals aren't they? In Tom Glavine's book he talks about wanting to stay with the Braves and not wanting to sign with the Mets but the Mets offer was so much more he didn't want to anger the union by taking an offer that was below market value especially since he was a player rep. 

Why would the union complain? Corbin just received a record contract for a player with his limited amount of service time. He also got almost $40M more than Michael Harris II signed for last summer, that's raising the bar pretty significantly.

[jerichoholicninja]

52 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Why would the union complain? Corbin just received a record contract for a player with his limited amount of service time. He also got almost $40M more than Michael Harris II signed for last summer, that's raising the bar pretty significantly.

At this moment in time yes but as other have pointed out he could be costing himself a boatload of money by signing away some of his free agent years. And there certainly has been a bit of a snowball the last few years as more and more guys are taking deals like this which is suppressing the salaries of guys who could be making bank in free agency.

 

What will really be interesting is if one of these guys goes Mike Trout and turns into the best player in baseball while being paid a middle of the pack salary they signed for. Will we start to see NFL style holdouts to get a new, bigger extension?

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

At this moment in time yes but as other have pointed out he could be costing himself a boatload of money by signing away some of his free agent years.

He's already getting paid for healthy, star level production through Arby and signed away his first three free agent seasons for $84M, it's a pretty slim range of outcomes that would cost him a boatload of money at this point. 

And if somehow that slim range of outcomes does come to fruition six, seven, eight years from now he'll have $111M to fall back on.

This is a guy whose 2019 season ended with a shoulder injury and then in 2021 sustained a posterior capsular avulsion fracture and a labrum tear during a swing on which he homered. He just transferred the majority of the risk over the next half decade plus from himself to the team.