Article: Brandon Woodruff Will Be Gone a While: 3 Ways the Brewers Can Stop Their Rotation Gap

[Matthew Trueblood]

Over the last two days, the prognosis on Brandon Woodruff's shoulder has gotten markedly worse--or at least, we've become more aware of how serious the issue is. It's time to talk about how the team can survive a prolonged absence on the part of its co-ace.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

At first, Brandon Woodruff hitting the injured list with shoulder inflammation seemed like just a passing cloud on a sunny day. Amid the Brewers' hot start and with both the player and team talking about the possibility that he would return at the end of a minimum-length stay on the sidelines, it felt more like a nuisance than a genuine threat. Suddenly, that cloud has taken on all the lugubriousness of a coal-black storm stack. Woodruff is dealing with a subscapular strain that could easily cost him the next two months.

Brandon Woodruff will know more when he sees the doc back in Milwaukee, but you get a sense here that he’s looking at an extended absence.

You also get a sense of what kind of teammate he is. pic.twitter.com/r7p1qzGbRu

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) April 15, 2023

During that time, and even after Woodruff returns, the Brewers are going to have to deviate from whatever ideal plan they might have formulated even as recently as a week ago. They have a few good options, though, because of the depth of their organization on multiple fronts. Let's explore those possibilities.

Auditions Are Open

Already, we've seen Janson Junk and Colin Rea take turns in the rotation since Woodruff fell out of it, and it's safe to guess that at least one more hurler will get a similar opportunity in the near future. Robert Gasser isn't on the 40-man roster, but he's looked very good thus far with Triple-A Nashville. Adrian Houser just began a rehab assignment, and although the plan for Houser has been to restore him to the big-league team as a multi-inning reliever, that can be tweaked if needed. It could all be as simple as one of these guys seizing the job and holding down a spot by keeping the team in the game every fifth day until Woodruff can make it back. 

Robert Gasser went 5.1 strong in his second start for Nashville with 16 swings and misses

5.1 IP / 2 H / 2 R / 7 K#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/5R2GR6Hh3W

— Brewers Player Development (@BrewersPD) April 14, 2023

Bryse Wilson shouldn't be ignored, either. His four outings to open this season have covered nine total innings, and three of the four have involved multiple frames. In those three, he's thrown 49, 34, and 50 pitches, and he's using a sufficiently varied repertoire to make it easy to imagine him stretching back out to a starter's workload. It might mean a shorter start or two as he builds up from 50 pitches to full readiness for 80 or 90, but it's a change that could be made on the fly at this stage.

Revert to the Six-Man Rotation

Recall that, in 2021, the Brewers thrived with a six-man starting rotation, largely as an adaptation to the weirdness of playing a full season on the heels of the shortened pandemic year of 2020. They went back to the five-man plan in 2022, but it's not too late to flex back out to the longer loop this month. With Woodruff down, it becomes more important to preserve the health of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, and Wade Miley. The latter three of that quartet arguably stood to benefit from a six-man staff anyway, and Burnes alone provides only half the incentive to stick to five that Burnes and Woodruff offered when both were healthy. 

With those four and any two of the arms listed above, the team could run a perfectly respectable six-man circuit, and they'd still have good bullpen depth. If Wilson and/or Houser were slated to start, it would mean more arms (like Jake Cousins, Tyson Miller, Cam Robinson, Elvis Peguero, and the newly acquired Bennett Sousa) in the bullpen. Obviously, relying on any or all of those guys is not ideal, but nor is the fact of Woodruff's injury. Having a strong six starters and seven relief slots, with the ability to rotate pitchers through at least three of them pretty liberally, could be the best approach.

Surplus and Need, Supply and Demand: Let's Make a Deal

Of course, the juiciest conversation this situation opens up is one about the possibility of trading for an ace to replace the (temporarily) fallen one. This is where the Brewers' broader depth becomes a major asset to Matt Arnold. It's too early to hope to see immediate action, but if the prognosis on Woodruff still looks poor in a month (and if the team continues to play well in the meantime), there are plenty of interesting deals that the team might entertain.

Could this be the year the Rockies finally realize they're bad, and trade Germán Márquez? Will the Giants, Red Sox, White Sox, or even Phillies listen to offers on their veteran arms if their rough starts don't smooth out? One way or another, the Marlins figure to be open to a trade for one of their young, controllable, high-upside starters by mid-summer, even if it be only as their best avenue to improving their lousy offense. 

The catch with any of those, of course, is that if the Brewers want to add a starter who moves the needle in what figures to be a push for the NL Central title and beyond, they're going to have to be willing to give up one of their young outfielders. It's almost impossible to imagine a pitcher good enough to tempt Arnold into surrendering Jackson Chourio, but Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick all have to be considered candidates, if the right deal materializes and the rest of the team's outfielders are playing as expected. Remember, the current outfield picture will only get more crowded as the season progresses, as long as Tyrone Taylor recovers as expected from his elbow injury.

This much creativity and intrigue is usually reserved for conversations about a team around and after Memorial Day. Woodruff going down and the team starting so well have conspired to give us some fascinating things to ponder before Earth Day. For now, though, the best thing for which to hope is that Woodruff will recover quickly and be at full strength for the stretch drive--regardless of the size or the specific makeup of the rotation he would then re-join.

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[SF70]

Hoping to see Robert Gasser rotation sooner rather than later. He’s fully stretched, has whiff ability and is part of the post-Burnes/Woodruff rotation anyhow. 

A few more Nashville starts with improved stride-throwing should do the trick.

 

[Harold Hutchison]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Hoping to see Robert Gasser rotation sooner rather than later. He’s fully stretched, has whiff ability and is part of the post-Burnes/Woodruff rotation anyhow. 

A few more Nashville starts with improved stride-throwing should do the trick.

 

This is where maybe extending Houser would not be a bad idea. He'd probably come reasonably cheap ($5 million or so), and having him as a solid back-of-the-rotation guy at worst probably helps moving forward.

At this point, go with a five-man of Burnes, Rea, Lauer, Peralta, Miley, then expand to six when Houser finishes his rehab. Start stretching out Ethan Small to fill in for the rotation, and have him, Junk, and Gasser ready to backfill any holes.

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

This is where maybe extending Houser would not be a bad idea. He'd probably come reasonably cheap ($5 million or so), and having him as a solid back-of-the-rotation guy at worst probably helps moving forward.

At this point, go with a five-man of Burnes, Rea, Lauer, Peralta, Miley, then expand to six when Houser finishes his rehab. Start stretching out Ethan Small to fill in for the rotation, and have him, Junk, and Gasser ready to backfill any holes.

Houser still has another year of team control. There's zero reason to give him an extension.

[Brewcrew82]

Honestly, I’d be fine with trading any of our prospects not named Chourio or Misiorowski for a starter. Garrett Mitchell, in particular, would be a great sell-high candidate…

[Brewcrew82]

Mitch Keller from the Pirates is someone we should target imo. Former top 20 prospect with a few of years of control left who has put up middling numbers despite his high-level stuff. 

Sounds like a familiar story (Cole, Musgrove, Taillon)...

Would be a nice back of the rotation addition at the very least with the potential for more if our pitcher development system is able to work its magic once again. Also, would add another option for next season, when we'll presumably be without Burnes. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Mitch Keller from the Pirates is someone we should target imo. Former top 20 prospect with a few of years of control left who has put up middling numbers despite his high-level stuff. 

Sounds like a familiar story (Cole, Musgrove, Taillon)...

Would be a nice back of the rotation addition at the very least with the potential for more if our pitcher development system is able to work its magic once again. Also, would add another option for next season, when we'll presumably be without Burnes. 

Keller's a great name. I like that a lot. Obviously, there'd be some hesitation on one side or the other about an intradivisional trade, but it goes up near the top of the list for me.

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Houser still has another year of team control. There's zero reason to give him an extension.

To be fair, I am pretty sure it was Clancy that wanted to give Hernan Perez tens of millions. After we dumped Perez he managed 27 PAs and hasn’t played since 2021.

Wanting to extend middling guys is kind of his thing. Houser is nice…but the more expensive he gets, he becomes pretty worthless. I think his value is underrated, but I wouldn’t want to start commuting multiple years to him.

[igor67]

When mid-range players drop off they become replacement level pretty fast. The top level players can fall off and still give you 3-4 WAR seasons, which might not be great but still contributes positively to the team.