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Cubs Rotation 2007 ERA's vs. Historical


Can we really expect the Cubs rotation to keep this up? All but Zambrano is pitching above their career averages with regards to ERA. Now, I know ERA is not the only tool used to measure pitching performance, but as of today:


Zambrano: 4.04 ERA

Career: 3.20 ERA


Hill: 3.49 ERA

Career: 4.40 ERA


Lilly: 3.84 ERA

Career: 4.52 ERA


Marquis: 3.31 ERA

Career: 4.42 ERA


Marshall: 3.50 ERA

Career: 5.02 ERA


All but Zambrano are also ahead of their career averages in WHIP as well. Is this information irrelevant, or does it bode well for the Crew in the 2nd half? Cubs currently have 80% of their rotation bettering their career ERA's by .70+.


Meanwhile, the Crew has Sheets (.58 under career ERA) and Vargas (.55 under career ERA) ahead of their career norms, while Suppan, Bush, and Capuano are all below their career averages.

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I'd discount Hill and Marshall's career numbers, due to everyone's favorite catchphrase on BF, (say it with me) Small Sample Size.


I think that's relevant when projecting Lilly and Marquis, however. I also think it bears up the notion that Zambrano will continue his impressive string of performances over the past month plus.

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In the case of Hill and Marshall -- I don't think that their "historical" (essentially one season, that being their first) means much of anything.


I think Lilly is right about where he should be -- if you figure he had a 4.52 ERA the last 3 years in the AL East -- I don't think a 3.84 in the NL central is that far of a deviation.


I expect Zambrano will pitch better.


I think that Marquis is pitching way better than his historical data indicates he should -- and I suspect he could get shelled a couple times here and there -- but should it be something the Brewers should be excited about -- probably not.

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Ted Lilly is a very, very underrated pitcher.


I actually expected him to have a lower ERA than he has moving from one of, if not the, best offensive divisions in the league to one of the worst. I would expect him to be around 3.50-3.60 and have right around 200 K's this year. One of the best signings of the offseason, which is a rare thing to say when talking about a move the Cubs made.


Zambrano is one of the best pitchers in the league, and he's been hitting his stride lately. I could easily see Rich Hill maintaining what he's done so far and getting around 200 K's, as well. They're probably going to lead the league in K's.


Marquis is going to blow up, though and Marshall's not much.


All that said, ERA isn't really a great thing to use to evaluate pitchers, since so much of it is team-dependent. Results are results, which is all that matters this season, but they don't tell everything about true ability.

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While a good observation, this doesn't tell us much.


Zambrano -- it tells us he'll get better, which we should already know.


Lilly -- has spent his entire career in the AL, much of it in the AL East. I expected his ERA to drop between .5 and 1 runs this year


Marshall & Hill -- Very young lefties. Of course they'll get better.


Marquis -- Marquis isn't as good as his ERA this year, nor is he as bad as his ERA last year. I'd expect his ERA to settle in right about the midpoint of his current & career numbers.


The Cubs bullpen will shake out, too. Eventually Carlos Marmol will get hit and expect Eyre & Howry to straighten things out a bit.

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