Keston Hiura has a .984 OPS in Nashville

[Fear The Chorizo]

32 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Low average hitter who Ks excessively and can't hit lefties to save his life. Not really the solution this offense needs right now.

Is this statement to describe Hiura or 90% of the current Brewer MLB roster?

I think Keston would've been up a month ago if not for his injury - if and when he does get called up, it needs to be for an extended full time role as this team's DH. If Counsel plans on trying to utilize him again in some sort of platoon role where he faces more LHP than RHP, then he'd be better off staying down in AAA.

I also think the reverse splits Hiura has are a bit overstated due to sample size, but I do think he hits righties at least a bit better than lefties because of his natural instinct to let the ball travel to him and use his hands.  If he'd get nothing but sliders from RHP at the MLB level, he'd OPS north of 1.500.  Obviously he'll need to prove that his swing adjustments have allowed him to handle high in the zone gas more effectively at the MLB level, because that's all he'll get until he proves he's not the auto out he used to be in that zone with velocity.  There's only one way to find out, and it's not letting Hiura continue mashing down in Nashville.

[Samurai Bucky]

43 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think Keston would've been up a month ago if not for his injury - if and when he does get called up, it needs to be for an extended full time role as this team's DH. If Counsel plans on trying to utilize him again in some sort of platoon role where he faces more LHP than RHP, then he'd be better off staying down in AAA.

Hypothetically, at what point would you consider his callup a success?  Likewise, what would be considered a failure?

I would expect him to do better than Winker or Tellez.  Calling him up and having him do the same as the majority of the roster is not a success.

If he hits .220 and K's 35% of the time in 100 ABs, then it would be time for a DFA.  Contrary to some, I'm stuck on the big K numbers.  As said in the other thread, his K% in AAA this year is down to 23%, so I'm hopeful he will do better this time around.

Perhaps now would be a time to trade him since he appears to have some value.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hypothetically, at what point would you consider his callup a success?  Likewise, what would be considered a failure?

IMO it will be a success if he's called up over the AS Break and proceeds to get everyday at bats as the DH, so the Brewers will have ~2.5 months of a regular season to assess whether it's worth plugging Hiura in as the Opening Day 2024 DH for this team or if they part ways with Hiura and wish him well elsewhere (whether that's in a Korean/Japanese league ala Thames or with a different MLB organization).  Stats-specific, if Hiura can hit mid-200s and maintain a mid-upper 700s OPS I think he's worth bringing back next season and frankly that's plenty of production to improve their offense this season compared to what they've gotten from DH so far...and I think Hiura still has a higher ceiling than that.

It will be a failure if Hiura is called up and not given an extended shot at everyday ABs and the Brewers are left without a clear decision to make with Keston moving forward - or if they shuttle him to random defensive positions to keep his bat in the lineup (1B/OF/2B)...if Hiura is going to have a lengthy MLB career it will be as a DH that has righthanded pop.  He'll probably always have a higher than average MLB K%, but if he keeps it between 30-35% he'll hit enough to justify an everyday spot in the lineup.

 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hypothetically, at what point would you consider his callup a success?  Likewise, what would be considered a failure?

IMO it will be a success if he's called up over the AS Break and proceeds to get everyday at bats as the DH, so the Brewers will have ~2.5 months of a regular season to assess whether it's worth plugging Hiura in as the Opening Day 2024 DH for this team or if they part ways with Hiura and wish him well elsewhere (whether that's in a Korean/Japanese league ala Thames or with a different MLB organization).  Stats-specific, if Hiura can hit mid-200s and maintain a mid-upper 700s OPS I think he's worth bringing back next season and frankly that's plenty of production to improve their offense this season compared to what they've gotten from DH so far...and I think Hiura still has a higher ceiling than that.

It will be a failure if Hiura is called up and not given an extended shot at everyday ABs and the Brewers are left without a clear decision to make with Keston moving forward - or if they shuttle him to random defensive positions to keep his bat in the lineup (1B/OF/2B)...if Hiura is going to have a lengthy MLB career it will be as a DH that has righthanded pop.  He'll probably always have a higher than average MLB K%, but if he keeps it between 30-35% he'll hit enough to justify an everyday spot in the lineup.

 

He cannot have a K% at or near 35% and put up production making it worthwhile for the Brewers to roster him. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He cannot have a K% at or near 35% and put up production making it worthwhile for the Brewers to roster him. 

His 2019 MLB production (mid-900's OPS with a K rate around 31%) says otherwise

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

His 2019 MLB production (mid-900's OPS with a K rate around 31%) says otherwise

That's not 35% last time I checked....And his 2019 MLB production was driven by an astronomical .402 BABIP. He's come back down to earth and then some with the regression of that BABIP to the mean. 

If Hiura wants to be a major league player, he's gotta have that K rate around 30 percent at maximum.

[Fear The Chorizo]

37 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That's not 35% last time I checked....And his 2019 MLB production was driven by an astronomical .402 BABIP. He's come back down to earth and then some with the regression of that BABIP to the mean. 

If Hiura wants to be a major league player, he's gotta have that K rate around 30 percent at maximum.

I stated between 30-35% in the post you initially quoted, and you stated 'at or near' 35%...if I replaced extra base hits with a dozen or more Ks from those 2019 numbers to lower his average, slugging, etc. and bring his 2019 K rate to ~35%, he would've still been around a 0.900 OPS player that season.

saying "gotta" and "absolutely has to" around 1 single stat (K%) for a player to have an extended big league career is foolish.  If Hiura would get his K rate below 30%, he'd have the potential to be an all star at the DH position...so striking out at higher rate than some arbitrary threshold rate doesn't automatically disqualify Hiura from being a major league player.

 

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I stated between 30-35% in the post you initially quoted, and you stated 'at or near'...if I replaced extra base hits with a dozen or more Ks from those 2019 numbers to lower his average, slugging, etc. and bring his 2019 K rate to ~35%, he would've still been around a 0.900 OPS player that season.

saying "gotta" and "absolutely has to" around 1 single stat (K%) for a player to have an extended big league career is foolish.  If Hiura would get his K rate below 30%, he'd have the potential to be an all star at the DH position...so striking out at higher rate than some arbitrary threshold rate doesn't automatically disqualify Hiura from being a major league player.

 

Yes, at or near 35%. 35% isn't near 30%. If you told me he would K at 30%, then I would say bring him up because he can have some success with that, based on recent history th/o the league. But Hiura K'd 42% of the time last year...

K% isn't "arbitrary". It's correlated with production. Long at-bats which end in a K are useless because there's a 0% chance of getting on base, plating a run etc.. So, the more K's you rack up, the less your production will be.

Joey Gallo is the only player w/ K rates consistently as high as Hiura who has been able to establish themselves in the big leagues. And even then, Gallo is one of the most maddeningly inconsistent players in the game. Not to mention he has a leg up on Hiura in 3 major ways; specifically, his BB%, his defense, and his EV/Barrel%. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, at or near 35%. 35% isn't near 30%. If you told me he would K at 30%, then I would say bring him up because he can have some success with that, based on recent history th/o the league. But Hiura K'd 42% of the time last year...

K% isn't "arbitrary". It's correlated with production. Long at-bats which end in a K are useless because there's a 0% chance of getting on base, plating a run etc.. So, the more K's you rack up, the less your production will be.

Joey Gallo is the only player w/ K rates consistently as high as Hiura who has been able to establish themselves in the big leagues. And even then, Gallo is one of the most inconsistent players in the game. Not to mention he has a leg up on Hiura in 3 major ways; specifically, his BB%, his defense, and his EV/Barrel%. 

I didn't say K% is arbitrary, and I do value contact more than some other posters on this board...What is arbitrary is you setting a specific K% number on what Hiura needs to be at or below in order to be a major league player.  So if Hiura over the course of a 600 plate appearance regular season hit 35+ HR and drove in close to 100, while OPSing around 0.800 also struck out 35.2% of the time (211 Ks), he's not a MLB player in your book?  Would he be a MLB player if he found a way to strike out two fewer times over the course of 600 plate appearances to lower that K rate to 34.8%?

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I didn't say K% is arbitrary, and I do value contact more than some other posters on this board...What is arbitrary is you setting a specific K% number on what Hiura needs to be at or below in order to be a major league player.  So if Hiura over the course of a 600 plate appearance regular season hit 35+ HR and drove in close to 100, while OPSing around 0.800 also struck out 35.2% of the time (211 Ks), he's not a MLB player in your book?  Would he be a MLB player if he found a way to strike out two fewer times over the course of 600 plate appearances to get that K rate to 34.8%?

It's not arbitrary. It's based on history/data. Look at fangraphs/baseball savant and give me an example of a player with a K% at 35% who has been able to establish themselves in the major leagues.

The only one is Gallo, and as I pointed out, Gallo has a leg up on Hiura in 3 major ways (BB%, EV/Barrel Rate, Defense). 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not arbitrary. It's based on history/data. Look at fangraphs/baseball savant and give me an example of a player with a K% at 35% who has been able to have sustained success and be an above average hitter in this league. 

The only one is Gallo, and as I pointed out, Gallo has a leg up on Hiura in 3 major ways (BB%, EV/Barrel Rate/Defense). 

so now you're shifting the goal posts to "above average hitter in this league" instead of "major league player"??  

defense has nothing to do with a leg up at the DH position, btw...and Gallo has been allowed to slog through full seasons of ABs (when healthy) to put up his numbers - Hiura goes through a 10-game slump and he's gone for months back down to the minors.

All the while, the current Brewers' 2023 DH production could probably have been outproduced by letting a healthy Brandon Woodruff take those ABs.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

so now you're shifting the goal posts to "above average hitter in this league" instead of "major league player"??  

defense has nothing to do with a leg up at the DH position, btw...and Gallo has been allowed to slog through full seasons of ABs (when healthy) to put up his numbers - Hiura goes through a 10-game slump and he's gone for months back down to the minors.

All the while, the current Brewers' 2023 DH production could probably have been outproduced by letting a healthy Brandon Woodruff take those ABs.

It's not really shifting the goalposts considering Hiura has to be an above average hitter to be a major league player...

Defense has a heck of a lot to do with considering it's part of the whole package. Hiura is terrible on defense and effectively limited to DH. Thus, he has to hit at a higher level than someone like Gallo, who has been a GG fielder. Don't you think that might have something to do with why Gallo has been allowed to "slog through full seasons of ABs" compared to Hiura? Not toomention Hiura doesn't hit the ball as well as Gallo does when he actually does make contact....

BTW, I'm still waiting on you providing me some examples of players with a K% of 35% who have been able to establish themselves in this league...

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's not really shifting the goalposts considering Hiura has to be an above average hitter to be a major league player...

2022 MLB average OPS - 0.706

2022 Hiura OPS (with that 42% K rate you love to mention) - 0.765

Joey Gallo had a 0.638 OPS over 410 plate appearances last season, btw.

[Samurai Bucky]

11 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Joey Gallo had a 0.638 OPS over 410 plate appearances last season, btw.

I want to make sure I understand -- is OPS is the only thing that comes into play when talking about Keston Hiura?  If so, then he is a prototypical definition of a 3PO player, correct?

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

It's not really shifting the goalposts considering Hiura has to be an above average hitter to be a major league player...

2022 MLB average OPS - 0.706

2022 Hiura OPS (with that 42% K rate you love to mention) - 0.765

Joey Gallo had a 0.638 OPS over 410 plate appearances last season, btw.

I have no clue why you're having such a hard time understanding the fact that defense/position plays a big role in this..Different positions carry different expectations. Keston Hiura is a DH, where the offensive expectations are the literally the highest because that's where the entirety of your value comes from... Joey Gallo, on the other hand has been a GG outfielder in his career. When you're limited to DH or play terrible defense like Hiura does, you need to hit at a certain level which Hiura hasn't been able to achieve since 2019, largely as a result of his K-rate (88 wRC+/.5 fWAR/38.5% K).

Hiura's 2022 OPS was always unsustainable with that 42% K rate. Case in point: .334 wOBA vs. .317 xwOBA + 89 wRC (-.1fWAR) from Aug 20 to the end of the season. That doesn't exactly help your argument. 

Again, still waiting on those examples...

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Low average hitter who Ks excessively and can't hit lefties to save his life. Not really the solution this offense needs right now.

So I am assuming you are completely done with Hiura as a Brewer?  Many others seem to be as well.  I think the kid deserves another shot.  If he fails miserably this time, cut ties.

[rickh150]

It’s a double standard by many here… you can’t defend being against Hiura with offensive stats, whether this year or last. When you try, you realize over half the team fails that standard too. It’s a gotcha. His bat of course has to play on this group of Perkins, Jones, Tapia, Winker..

let’s just say Hiura was a CC favorite and hit 2022 stats at DH this first half. Would there be a call to get rid of Hiura? The ol boys club here, with CC as unquestioned leader, would fight tooth and nail for anyone daring to question CC’s decisions. It’s getting to be like the emperor has no clothes with keeping Hiura down and giving others time here first on this DH OPS worst struggling offensive team. 

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I don't think Hiura fixes anything but we've got a whole thread about trading for a 1B in the rumor forum talking about marginal upgrades that will cost prospects and/or money. Keston costs nothing but the roster spot of one of our current horrible hitting players.

👍

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Low average hitter who Ks excessively and can't hit lefties to save his life. Not really the solution this offense needs right now.

Mismanaged to the extreme in 2022… never given a shot at DH… hit .274  as DH last year with .949 OPS in in 98 PA… what screams dont continue letting this guy hit DH?  

[TURBO]

It seems some like to argue for the sake of arguing.

Hiura more than likely, with great probability, will outperform all the garbage we've tried at DH this season, yet there are people so hung up on his K% (even though he has improved that stat immensely this year at AAA), his defensive inflexibility, etc., that they can't understand that his only role on the team would and should be as our every day DH.

It's that simple.

Bring the kid back up, tell him he will be the daily DH, and go with it.

I know what CC will do, and so do many others here.  He will get brought up, get 2 or 3 starts a week, probably against lefties, which he struggles with, then everyone will jump on his back saying how horrible he is, and "see, he sucks!".  It's happened before, and I see it happening again once he gets the call.  It's almost like CC and the organization want him to fail for some weird reason.  Do I think they want him to fail, no.  Yet they continue to put him in situations that do not allow him to reach his potential.  I think what we have done to him mentally is a baseball crime.  It's asinine.

If we aren't going to use him, I truly hope they find a trade partner who can see some value in him, even if it means we get peanuts in return.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

It’s a double standard by many here… you can’t defend being against Hiura with offensive stats, whether this year or last. When you try, you realize over half the team fails that standard too. It’s a gotcha. His bat of course has to play on this group of Perkins, Jones, Tapia, Winker..

let’s just say Hiura was a CC favorite and hit 2022 stats at DH this first half. Would there be a call to get rid of Hiura? The ol boys club here, with CC as unquestioned leader, would fight tooth and nail for anyone daring to question CC’s decisions. It’s getting to be like the emperor has no clothes with keeping Hiura down and giving others time here first on this DH OPS worst struggling offensive team. 

I wouldn't have any problem with Hiura getting a chance over Winker at this point because it's hard to do worse than Winker has done, and the Brewers would be well-served to find out what he's got before the deadline. But, like Winker, his terrible defense and lack of defensive value/versatility means he needs to hit at a certain level for him to be more than a replacement-level player. 

There's zero guarantee that Hiura would hit at that level, and his K rate, which has gotten worse and worse since 2019, doesn't inspire a ton of optimism that he would get there. 

Could he be an improvement over Winker? Very possibly. Is he likely to solve the Brewers' DH woes? No. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I want to make sure I understand -- is OPS is the only thing that comes into play when talking about Keston Hiura?  If so, then he is a prototypical definition of a 3PO player, correct?

3PO...is that something from star wars?  I think you mean 3TO...and I'd loosely agree with your point had Hiura not been hitting over 0.300 and K-ing well below 30% in AAA so far this season.  We don't have any 2023 MLB stats for Hiura after swing and approach changes made this offseason, and I think he's producing enough in Nashville to deserve one last extended chance in Milwaukee.  That's my main point, and I don't get the hangup over giving him another shot because of a high K rate in limited opportunities at the MLB level last season when the worst he would do now is provide better offensive output than what the Brewers have gotten the first ~400 or so DH plate appearances this season.  The other aspect of this is he's in the organization now, and won't require any sort of significant trade involving other prospects to get onto the big league roster - it would be as simple as DFA-ing one of the other veteran scrubs.

And no, OPS isn't the only thing that comes into play when evaluating whether or not Hiura's bat would benefit the Brewers at the MLB level compared to what their roster looks like right now...it's more valuable than K% IMO, but it's not the only thing.  I really could care less what Hiura can or can't do defensively, because it doesn't factor in wanting him getting everyday DH at bats for a team that already has more than enough marginal offensive players whose calling card is positional versatility.

In the end, Hiura might just be snakebit as a Brewer - getting injured earlier this season probably kept him from flat-out forcing the Brewers to give him another MLB opportunity weeks ago with how he was hitting.  I hope he gets one more shot with the team that drafted him, but if it doesn't happen I'll root for him wherever he winds up.

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Mismanaged to the extreme in 2022… never given a shot at DH… hit .274  as DH last year with .949 OPS in in 98 PA… what screams dont continue letting this guy hit DH?  

98 PAs of dramatic overperformance doesn't cancel out what we saw from 2020-2021 and then in the last month and a half of the season last year. 

And you're accusing other people of cherrypicking...

[Robocaller]

Hiura is hitting .333 vs. LHP this year. His splits have been inconsistent. If he magically started hitting LHP as well as a RHH should, he's an every day player.

[rickh150]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

98 PAs of dramatic overperformance doesn't cancel out what we saw from 2020-2021 and then in the last month and a half of the season last year. 

And you're accusing other people of cherrypicking...

 Take all his stats then… include 2019 if you are going to take 2020.

Or take ALL of his MLB 2022 stats. You don’t want to compare those though. That doesn’t fit.

Or take what he has done at AAA for what two or three years.

I understand his Spring Training was bad. I would have had a tough time putting him up to start the season, but I probably would because he would have hit DH for me in 2022.

 So yes, of course you cherry-pick stats. I do too.