Closers and tie games.

[Thurston Fluff]

From what I've seen teams tend to use the closer at home in a tie game in the 9th inning for a long time. With the Ghost runner in extra innings does that make sense now? It seems like giving a lesser pitcher a clean inning vs a runner at second is better. Last night was a perfect example. Williams comes in and shuts the door stranding the runner. That only happened because the Brewers were behind going into the bottom of the 9th. Would standing the runner in the 10th been as likely if the Brewers had been tied going into the 9th and Williams pitched the 9th?

[Oxy]

I'm okay with using your best in the 9th at home, just to ensure that he gets in the game and you are doing you best to extend the game.  However, when on the road and pitching the bottom of the 9th, you already know that best case scenario you'll have to pitch the bottom of the 10th as well, so I'd use somebody else to start the bottom of the 9th and bring on DWill if guys get on base early in the inning, but hopefully save him for the 10th.

[KeithStone53151]

I've been on to this exact thought process since the ghost runner started. It drove me nuts that we'd use a strikeout pitcher like Hader in the 9th in a tie game, and then throw Suter or Boxberger in for the 10th. Those guys have a pretty good shot at pitching a clean 9th...but a much lower chance of pitching a clean 10th and stranding a runner at 2nd considering they don't strike out 15 batters per 9. Even those guys having a successful inning, like a groundball to 2b and a medium deep can of corn to CF...that's a run. I feel like 2017/2018 CC would have figured this out, over the last few years he's become much more traditional and less creative. 

[nate82]

At home in the 9th inning of a tie game you should definitely use your best reliever.  Your offense just needs to score one run (please note this is a general statement and not about the Brewers current offense) so keeping the game tied in the top half of the 9th is your ultimate goal with your offense scoring in the bottom half. 

The 10th inning really shouldn't be coming into play until it actually happens.  To me Devin is more of a one inning pitcher so you can't stretch him out over multiple innings.  Hader could go multiple innings but by the time last year rolled around it was too close to FA where he wasn't going to risk the big payday if he got hurt or if his numbers started to drop. 

On the road this is another story you would probably want to keep your closer for the bottom of the 10th.  The only time I would use my closer would be if the top or the middle of the order is coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th.  You would want to use your best reliever in that spot versus holding them back. 

[KeithStone53151]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

At home in the 9th inning of a tie game you should definitely use your best reliever.  Your offense just needs to score one run (please note this is a general statement and not about the Brewers current offense) so keeping the game tied in the top half of the 9th is your ultimate goal with your offense scoring in the bottom half. 

The 10th inning really shouldn't be coming into play until it actually happens.  To me Devin is more of a one inning pitcher so you can't stretch him out over multiple innings.  Hader could go multiple innings but by the time last year rolled around it was too close to FA where he wasn't going to risk the big payday if he got hurt or if his numbers started to drop. 

On the road this is another story you would probably want to keep your closer for the bottom of the 10th.  The only time I would use my closer would be if the top or the middle of the order is coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th.  You would want to use your best reliever in that spot versus holding them back. 

That's the conventional approach before the runner on second thing started. This probably does vary by team. In the Brewers case this season, I would strongly argue you are much better off running out Payamps, Uribe, or Chacin in the 9th and Williams in the 10th if available. Those 4 relievers all have a relatively equal chance of pitching a clean inning with no runners on base. Williams may be slightly ahead, but it's real close. As for the 10th, Williams has a much better shot at pitching a clean inning with his high k numbers than any of the other 3. There's also value to not using Williams at all if Uribe can throw a clean 9th in a tie game and the Brewers close it out in the bottom half. I would say this is probably situationally dependent...I could see Williams making sense in the 9th if he hasn't pitched in 4-5 days or something. I would bet a deep analysis of this would show that we win more using the closer in the 10th and another high end reliever in the 9th. I tried looking for analysis of this situation and couldn't find anything easily on the internet. So I can't exactly support my opinion.

[owbc]

The score doesn't matter -- tied or ahead by 1-2 runs should have the same strategy. In close games, you want your best reliever against the middle of the opposing lineup. The Pirates had 6-7-8 due up in the 9th so I agree with the decision to go with Payamps there. Then 1-2-3 were due up in the 10th so you go with Williams in that scenario. I think it was the right move. 

If 1-2-3 was due up in the 9th, then Williams should have gone in the 9th. 

[nate82]

I think some are thinking to far ahead and over complicating a situation.  If you are tied going into the 9th inning at home you will want your closer to be in the game.  You want to keep the score tied.  To me this is a save situation and you want your best reliever in the game at that time.  If the other team scores then the 10th inning isn't guaranteed.  You want to keep the chances the other team can score to be as low as possible.  That means bringing in your best reliever for that moment.  If it is the bottom half of the order sure save your best reliever if you need them in the next inning but not if you are facing the top or the middle of the batting order. 

Even with the ghost runner at 2nd to start the 10th inning I would rather put myself in a position to win in the 9th than relying on maybe getting to the 10th inning.