Is It Time To Reboot The Brewers?

[Matt Breen]

The Brewers are at a crossroads. In 2024, the team can keep to their familiar formula and make another run at a division title - and a chance at the World Series. But such a move will have a price.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Several key players on the team - Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, and Willy Adames - are free agents after the 2024 season. Devin Williams is a free agent after the 2025 season. 

Does the team cash in these chips while they’re still valuable and look at 2024 as a reboot? 

I honestly don’t think there is a wrong answer to this question. 

Keeping these players and running the gang back out for another year is a legitimate option. The Crew has lost Brandon Woodruff and Wade Miley but hopes for a young arm like Robert Gasser to step into the breach. And who knows Aaron Ashby's status? If he can return, he could be a boon to the staff. A rotation of Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, and Gasser isn’t terrible. It’s not great either - but it has some promise. The team would have enough money to buy a back-of-the-rotation arm, maybe even try and bring back Miley. 

If the team did such a thing, they’d need to address a couple of holes in the lineup, specifically first and third base. Tyler Black is a prime candidate - depending on where the club sees his future on the field. But for now, in this situation, he will probably play third base. A reunion with Carlos Santana to play first base would fill out the infield at a reasonable price. 

The Crew would also be looking for bigger - and more productive - contributions from Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, and Turang. It’s not a stretch to think they will be better (and healthier) after a year in the Big Leagues.

The question looming is, what about beyond 2024? It’s unlikely the club will re-sign Burnes or Adames. The latter is a good player but inconsistent. And spending $15-20 million a year for such a player is not something the Brewers usually do. As for Burnes, he recently said, “I think a couple of years ago, I was probably open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know we're a year away from free agency and want to see what the market can bring.” That’s a man with a foot out the door.

So, the club would be looking at filling two pitching slots, first base, and shortstop next off-season. Of course, other young players could step up - such as Jackson Chourio in the outfield and Carlos Rodriguez in the rotation. And perhaps Brice Turang improves enough to be a legit starting shortstop. Or maybe Jacob Misiorowski, Brock Wilken, and Eric Brown, Jr. make huge leaps within the system. But none of the latter three players has had much time above A ball - so we shall have to see.

No matter what, the team could be woefully thin in the rotation, and infield help is a little way out. 

With all that in mind, the other option is to sell valuable assets that will be gone sooner than later to replenish the club with some high-upside bats and starting pitching.

What follows is a rough idea of how the club could proceed. 

Trade Burnes to Tampa for Curtis Mead, who would immediately step into the second base slot. Mead has one of the best hit tools in the minor leagues. He is one of the top 30 or so prospects in the game. Scouts expect 15-20 home run and a high batting average. Mead’s a mediocre fielder and likely slots in at 2B long-term. The Brewers probably could extract an extra lower-level arm or two in a trade. The Rays have Isaac Paredes at 3B, Brandon Lowe at 2B, and Sandy Diaz at 1B, thus they can afford to part with Mead in exchange for a much-needed starter. Would Tampa take on Burnes' salary? Perhaps not - but we can at least try. 

Trade Willy Adamas to the LA Dodgers for starter Ryan Pepiot (and an extra lower-level arm or two). The Dodgers have a small stable of good looking young arms, so they should be able to part with a player such as Pepiot, who goes right into the Brewer rotation for 2024. 

Trade Devin Williams to Baltimore for INF Joey Ortiz and pitcher DL Hall. While Williams is not a free agent until after the 2025 season, there’s little reason to keep him if the club is throwing in the towel for 2024. Hall steps into the rotation immediately, while Ortiz (ranked 50th on MLB Pipeline) battles it out with Turang for starting shortstop rights. Both are superior defensive players, but Ortiz has had more success with the bat (although he is already 25 years old). The Orioles, by the way, have Jackson Holliday waiting in the wings to play shortstop. And Jordan Westburg looks like he's destined for second base. This leave Ortiz as infield depth - so the club is dealing from their excess depth.

Trade Freddy Peralta to Minnesota for SS Brooks Lee, RHP David Festa, and RHP Marco Raya. Okay, this trade has a couple of red flags. First, should the Brewers be dealing Peralta, one of the organization’s top players? He has three years left on his very affordable contract, so would they be pulling the trigger too early on this? The answer is - maybe - but the goal is to grab another top-flight bat in the form of Brooks Lee. Lee is one of the top 20 prospects in baseball, a guy with one of the minor league’s best hit tools (similar to Curtis Mead). He is a switch hitter who best fits in at third base - where scouts say he could be a gold glove-type fielder. He may need more time at AAA, but giving him a roster spot right away isn’t out of the question. Also, he is blocked by Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. The pitchers in this deal are nothing special - but they are all right. The club could easily swap out other arms that they like better. 

The moves above net us two immediate starters and a few other arms that may help down the road. And they bring the club two premium bats - something the offense needs. It also clears a lot of salary off the books to allow the club to target needed players.

The 2024 roster would play out as such:

• C - Contreras (R)
• 1B - Black (L) - his fringy arm plays best here
• 2B - Mead (R) 
• SS - Lopez (R) / Turang (L)
• 3B - Lee (S)
• OF - Yelich (L), Mitchell (L), Frelick (L), Wiemer (R), Taylor (R)
• INF - Montesorio (R), Miller (R)
• SP - Gasser, Hall, Pepiot, Houser, Rea
• RP - Uribe, Milner, Peguero, Payamps, Wilson, Megill

DH is handled on a rotating basis - primarily with the outfielders. 

I’m not counting on Ashby for anything in 2024 - so if he does help - it’s a bonus. 

As I said earlier, I don’t think there’s any right or wrong answer regarding a reboot. Each option has its merits. Rebooting the club probably means giving up in 2024 as the young kids get their feet wet. But doing so would give us a better chance of success post-2024. 

Also, the players I have targeted could easily be switched around based on availability and the Brewers' preferences. The club might prefer going after a third baseman, Coby Mayo, who is with the Orioles organization, rather than Lee. No matter your preference, the idea would be to add several quality bats and arms to help the club for the next six to seven years. 

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Interested in building your own roster like the one in this article? Be sure to check out our easy-to-use blueprint payroll tool and build your own 2024 Brewers roster!

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[wibadgers23]

Yes, I think the Brewers should reboot this offseason but I think they’ll do more of a staggered rebuild - Burnes this offseason, Adames at the deadline and then Williams and Peralta in future trade deadlines/offseasons. I have a hard time seeing Mark A do a complete sell-off in one offseason. I like all of your trade scenarios but really do not think the Rays would trade for one year of Burnes. He just seems destined to go to the Dodgers. Also, I would hope we could get more for Devin Williams but I understand teams are no longer giving up multiple top prospects even for elite relievers.

[Trax]

I believe the team needs to make moves that help in certain areas this year but with the eye on the future.

Burnes and Adames do not appear to be in our future.

But what you're proposing is a bottom out rebuild, granted the recovery could be fairly swift.

I think unless they don't get great offers for Adames and Burnes they absolutely need to move them now.  With an eye towards the near future.  No fire sale of course.  If they don't get offered enough start the season with them but keep talking.  We NEED to get value return for both of them.

I would not trade Williams now unless blown away by a way above value offer.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The Brewers have a top 5 minor league system, so I dont think they need to tear the team down to rebuild. I can see trading Burnes and Adames assuming they get a good return. But trading Peralta impacts the 2024 team too much. I just dont see the Brewers doing that big of a teardown. They could still be competitive trading Burnes and Adames as long as they get close to ML talent back.  I'm on the fence with Devin. It has to be a good return.  We have depth there so I would be ok with a trade just need to get someone back who can help the ML team next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yes, I think the Brewers should reboot this offseason but I think they’ll do more of a staggered rebuild - Burnes this offseason, Adames at the deadline and then Williams and Peralta in future trade deadlines/offseasons. I have a hard time seeing Mark A do a complete sell-off in one offseason. I like all of your trade scenarios but really do not think the Rays would trade for one year of Burnes. He just seems destined to go to the Dodgers. Also, I would hope we could get more for Devin Williams but I understand teams are no longer giving up multiple top prospects even for elite relievers.

Yeah, I wonder if Arnold believes the difference in value between Peralta today and Peralta 12 months from now isn't substantial... and he's probably right (barring catastrophic injury, of course). It's really hard to see the Brewers contending without Woodruff, Burnes, AND Peralta. So maybe just hold on to Freddy as a bridge for a little while longer.

[jay87shot]

I would wait on Peralta, he will still be young with controllable years. If some of the young guys show promise he can lead a young rotation. If the young guys aren't quite up to speed then he can bring in a couple great young arms.

I prefer retool not rebuild, turn Burnes and Adames into a solid IF and upside starter or two. If you throw in Williams we can still improve our team by improving the weak offensive positions from last year.