REPORT: Jackson Chourio, Brewers Discussing Record-Setting Extension

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's much too soon to guess what it means, or even whether it will come to fruition, but the Brewers are talking to their top prospect about a contract that would change the course of the franchise in the short and long term.

Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / Milwauke | 2023 Mar 6

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jackson Chourio and the Brewers are in discussions about a contract extension that would run longer and pay Chourio more money than any player has ever received before making their big-league debut. Chourio, 19, is the linchpin of whatever comes next for the Brewers. This deal, if it gets completed, would just lend greater clarity to that standing.

Brewers discussing deal with top prospect Jackson Chourio that could influence team’s direction. Story: https://t.co/XZqKCvfO26

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 28, 2023

While Rosenthal speculates about the two courses the Brewers could follow in the wake of this kind of move, he's noncommittal about them, and it's not clear to me which direction it would push them to pursue. Obviously, signing Chourio to a deal lasting more than six years and fixing his position at the center of their competitive universe would influence the team's decisions about Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are trade candidates this winter. Less obvious is whether it would give them greater conviction and the goodwill with the fan base to pull the trigger on deals involving one or both, or whether it would represent the kind of investment on which Mark Attanasio would want to maximize the immediate return.

I know which way I lean. Burnes and Adames are guys worth keeping if the team wants to maximize their chances of winning the NL Central in 2024, but signing Chourio to a deal like this would indicate a commitment to the direction we already know Attanasio and Matt Arnold to prefer: steady, consistent, conservative competitiveness. In that case, as soon as Chourio's name is on the dotted line, the move is to get the best possible offers for Burnes and Adames. There's no mandate to trade them, but presumably, Arnold would find pretty good talent available in exchange for players of that quality. If so, he should move them. The team can probably acquire at least one player who can help them (albeit less) right away in that process, but locking Chourio into one outfield spot for most of the next decade would also give them the flexibility to trade more fearlessly from the stockpile of young outfielders around them.

The guy in that group with the highest trade value is Sal Frelick. In this scenario, I would be looking to get a controllable mid-rotation starter in exchange for Frelick, letting Chourio take over center field for the next few years and filling right field with whatever amalgam of the myriad others on hand works best. The best version of this plan, pending further details on the offer and (of course) its actual execution, involves a quarter-step back for 2024, with an eye toward regaining a firm footing on the top of the NL Central hill from 2025 onward.

Rosenthal doesn't report things like this without real fire fueling the smoke. There will be further news about this soon. In the meantime, it's fun to debate and to wonder: How long, and on what team-friendly terms, will Chourio be a Brewer? And what will the next step be?

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[SF70]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

It's much too soon to guess what it means, or even whether it will come to fruition, but the Brewers are talking to their top prospect about a contract that would change the course of the franchise in the short and long term.

author-tracker.gif author-tracker.gif

Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / Milwauke | 2023 Mar 6

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jackson Chourio and the Brewers are in discussions about a contract extension that would run longer and pay Chourio more money than any player has ever received before making their big-league debut. Chourio, 19, is the linchpin of whatever comes next for the Brewers. This deal, if it gets completed, would just lend greater clarity to that standing.

Brewers discussing deal with top prospect Jackson Chourio that could influence team’s direction. Story: https://t.co/XZqKCvfO26

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 28, 2023

While Rosenthal speculates about the two courses the Brewers could follow in the wake of this kind of move, he's noncommittal about them, and it's not clear to me which direction it would push them to pursue. Obviously, signing Chourio to a deal lasting more than six years and fixing his position at the center of their competitive universe would influence the team's decisions about Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are trade candidates this winter. Less obvious is whether it would give them greater conviction and the goodwill with the fan base to pull the trigger on deals involving one or both, or whether it would represent the kind of investment on which Mark Attanasio would want to maximize the immediate return.

I know which way I lean. Burnes and Adames are guys worth keeping if the team wants to maximize their chances of winning the NL Central in 2024, but signing Chourio to a deal like this would indicate a commitment to the direction we already know Attanasio and Matt Arnold to prefer: steady, consistent, conservative competitiveness. In that case, as soon as Chourio's name is on the dotted line, the move is to get the best possible offers for Burnes and Adames. There's no mandate to trade them, but presumably, Arnold would find pretty good talent available in exchange for players of that quality. If so, he should move them. The team can probably acquire at least one player who can help them (albeit less) right away in that process, but locking Chourio into one outfield spot for most of the next decade would also give them the flexibility to trade more fearlessly from the stockpile of young outfielders around them.

The guy in that group with the highest trade value is Sal Frelick. In this scenario, I would be looking to get a controllable mid-rotation starter in exchange for Frelick, letting Chourio take over center field for the next few years and filling right field with whatever amalgam of the myriad others on hand works best. The best version of this plan, pending further details on the offer and (of course) its actual execution, involves a quarter-step back for 2024, with an eye toward regaining a firm footing on the top of the NL Central hill from 2025 onward.

Rosenthal doesn't report things like this without real fire fueling the smoke. There will be further news about this soon. In the meantime, it's fun to debate and to wonder: How long, and on what team-friendly terms, will Chourio be a Brewer? And what will the next step be?

 

View full article

 

10 year extension and start Chourio in CF OD. Keep all of the OF’s because I think it would be selling low even with Frelick.

Move Yelich to mostly DH, with Frelick in LF and Mitchell in RF and just watch them run everything down. Wiemer to AAA. TT can get sold this offseason. At the trade-deadline or next offseason an OF can get sold.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

10 year extension and start Chourio in CF OD. Keep all of the OF’s because I think it would be selling low even with Frelick.

Move Yelich to mostly DH, with Frelick in LF and Mitchell in RF and just watch them run everything down. Wiemer to AAA. TT can get sold this offseason. At the trade-deadline or next offseason an OF can get sold.

LOL...there HAS to be a better way to articulate this!

Seriously though, I wouldn't trade Taylor. I don't know that you get a ton for him and it certainly doesn't hurt to have an athletic RHed bet off the bench. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

It looks pretty obvious that at some point one or more of the OFs will be dealt. But I don't want it to be Frelick. Looking at the way he handled himself at the plate in his first go-around, I see him becoming one of those guys that the opposition would just hate to see come to the plate late in a close game.

Agree with SF70, hoping Wiemer has the developmental year in AAA that was robbed from him last season. And as BrewerFan alluded to, I think the production you'd get from TT in '24 is greater than whatever you'd receive in trade.

[SF70]

6 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

It looks pretty obvious that at some point one or more of the OFs will be dealt. But I don't want it to be Frelick. Looking at the way he handled himself at the plate in his first go-around, I see him becoming one of those guys that the opposition would just hate to see come to the plate late in a close game.

Agree with SF70, hoping Wiemer has the developmental year in AAA that was robbed from him last season. And as BrewerFan alluded to, I think the production you'd get from TT in '24 is greater than whatever you'd receive in trade.

I’m conflicted after reading what you and Brewerfan had to say regarding TT. 

My thing is I just don’t see much playing time for TT next season. I think Mitchell-Frelick need to play everyday and my gut tells me Wiemer smashes AAA pitching and forces his way back to MKE as another RH hitting option.

They also have Perkins as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

My thing is I just don’t see much playing time for TT next season. I think Mitchell-Frelick need to play everyday and my gut tells me Wiemer smashes AAA pitching and forces his way back to MKE as another RH hitting option.

This is how I see it playing out as well.

[Seth Stohs]

The balance needed on this is so tough to navigate. 

If we say that they work a 10-year, $90 million deal: 

- For the team, the risk is him just being a guy, or getting hurt and never becoming more than a decent regular. In that case, he would get nearly league-minimum for 3 years, then maybe $10-20 million total in three arbitration years. And there would be four free agent years (and probably 85% of the dollars) remaining. 

- For Chourio, who signed for a $1.8 million bonus with the Brewers just a couple of years ago. At 19, with all the risks involved, it would sure be hard to turn down $90 million guaranteed. The risk is that he becomes Ronald Acuna and could get $400-600 million (as a 26-year-old free agent). That's a lot of money left on the table. That said, at 10 years, he'd be a 29-30 year old free agent (still young for free agency) and could still get another monster contract. 

Good stuff from Eduardo Perez here: 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 hours ago, SF70 said:

I’m conflicted after reading what you and Brewerfan had to say regarding TT. 

My thing is I just don’t see much playing time for TT next season. I think Mitchell-Frelick need to play everyday and my gut tells me Wiemer smashes AAA pitching and forces his way back to MKE as another RH hitting option.

They also have Perkins as well.

The only part of this post I question is Mitchell playing every day. I'd love to see him take that step, and it's certainly possible. But the strikeouts have to be addressed. To me, it's just a killer when a guy with his speed & baserunning ability is plagued with too much swing-and-miss. It appeared there was some improvement late last season in that area. Hopefully it wasn't a small-sample mirage.