My crazy (or is it?) offseason plan for the Brewers

[Madhawk23]

With the very exciting news regarding the long term deal for Chourio this week, I'm now 100% on board with this franchise hitting the "reset" button and going with more of a youth movement - with the goal of becoming a pennant contending team in '25 and beyond.  I know this plan might seem crazy to some here, but I really think the following moves would make us a contending team for many years to come and give us plenty of "bites at the apple" in upcoming years.  Here are my suggestions:

• Trade Burnes for the best offer you can get on the market this winter.  Some teams that might be interested and potential packages:
  • Dodgers - Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso
    • Or, go BIG here and include both Burnes and Adames in a deal to LA for Michael Busch, Frasso, Gavin Stone and River Ryan
  • O's - Coby Mayo and Cade Povich
    • Or, go BIG here and include both Burnes and Devin in a deal to the O's for Mayo, Joey Ortiz and either Povich OR DL Hall
  • Braves - AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep
  • Giants - Carson Whisenhunt, Rayner Arias, Reggie Crawford and Mason Black
  • Jays - Alex Manoah (assuming we think we can fix his issues from last season) and Orelvis Martinez
  • D-backs -  Brandon Pfaadt and Yu-Min Lin
  • Mets - David Peterson, Ronny Mauricio and Colin Houck
  • Phillies - Mick Abel, Griff McGarry and Orion Kerkering
  • Rangers - Jack Leiter (only if we feel strongly that we can fix him), Brock Porter, Kumar Rocker and Owen White
  • Yankees - Chase Hampton, Drew Thorpe and Roderick Arias
• Trade Adames (if you can't do the above deal to LA for Burnes and Adames):
  • Giants - Whisenhunt and Black (if you don't get them in a Burnes deal)
  • Red Sox - Ceddane Rafaela and Wikelman Gonzalez
  • Jays - Orelvis Martinez and Brandon Barriera
• Devin's trade value will never be higher than it is right now, and with the emergence of Abner Uribe - now is the time to trade him:
  • Phillies - Griff McGarry, Orion Kerkering and Aidan Miller
  • Padres - Jairo Iriarte, Adam Mazur and Jakob Marsee
  • O's - Joey Ortiz, Cade Povich and Mac Horvath
• This one might sting more than the others, but I would also take advantage of his full trade value and deal Freddy this winter:
  • O's - if they don't like the idea of trading for just one year of Burnes, offer them Freddy for - Mayo, Povich and Connor Norby. 
    • Or, go BIG here and include both Freddy and Devin in a deal to the O's for Mayo, Ortiz, Povich and DL Hall
  • Dodgers - if they don't want one year of Burnes, offer up Freddy for - Gavin Lux, Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso and Joendry Vargas
    • Or, go BIG here and include both Freddy and Willy in a deal with LA for Lux, Stone, Frasso, Vargas and Michael Busch

If we traded these 4 studs above, it would open up quite a bit of payroll for next season, so we could then be somewhat active in the F/A market to patch some holes.  Here are the signings I'd try to make:

• Rhys Hoskins - if the market doesn't open up for him coming off the injury, maybe we can sign him on a "prove it" one-year deal for around 18-20 Million?
• Frankie Montas - again, if market doesn't open up for him coming off of injury, maybe we can sign him on a "prove it" one-year deal for around 10-12 Million?
• Wade Miley - 1 year, 5 Million

Obviously, there are a lot of potential 2024 roster scenarios depending on which potential trade packages would get accepted from above, but just for fun - let's say that Arnold and co. were to pull off two of the big "blockbusters" from above: Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers and Freddy and Devin to the O's.  In this scenario, here is what our roster could look like next year:

C: Contreras (would need to find a backup C on the cheap)

1B: Hoskins, Black 

2B: Busch, Turang

SS: Ortiz, Turang

3B: Mayo, Black

OF: some combination each game of Yeli, Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Taylor

DH: Yeli, Hoskins, Black, etc.  

SP: Montas, Houser, Miley, Ashby?, Rea, Hall, Povich, Frasso, Stone, River, Gasser, C. Rodriguez

RP: Uriber (closer), Payamps, Peguero, Wilson, Milner, Misiorowski (at some point next year - and then maybe we still try to make him into a SP in '25 and beyond?)

Starting pitching is obviously the biggest question mark in that "fantasy" roster above, but.....damn that would be a fun team to watch develop over the next few years!  

And, let's not forget that we have other intriguing prospects that would potentially be joining this group in the next 2-3 years, like: Quero (either we use him as a trade piece or it allows us to trade Contreras in the next couple of years if we can't extend him?) Wilken (replaces Hoskins?), Lara, Pratt, Bitonti, Knoth, Boeve, Henderson, etc.  

I know it would absolutely suck to see the quartet of Burnes, Adames, Devin and Freddy leave this winter - but let's face it: we're going to lose them all eventually in the next couple of years.  So, let's maximize their value and trade them all this winter.  

Feel free to pick apart my fantasy scenario here.  I appreciate the feedback - both positive or negative.  

[Brewcrew82]

I don’t see a need to trade Freddy in addition to Burnes unless blown away which those proposals don’t really do. Freddy’s value isn’t going to be much different a year from now and the team has repeatedly stated they desire to be perennially competitive and not adopt a full-on rebuild.

[Madhawk23]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don’t see a need to trade Freddy in addition to Burnes unless blown away which those proposals don’t really do. Freddy’s value isn’t going to be much different a year from now and the team has repeatedly stated they desire to be perennially competitive and not employ a full-on rebuild.

Fair enough. To me though - this really doesn't represent a full-on rebuild.  In fact, I think the roster that I laid out above could be somewhat competitive as early as next year.  Maybe it's not quite a playoff team in '24, but I could see that roster at least being in the mix heading into August/September.  But, in '25 and beyond I could see that roster being a perennial playoff contender - assuming that we "hit" on a number of our own prospects along with the prospects we'd pick up in this trades.  Obviously, there is always risk involved with prospects, but it's really the only way a small market franchise like Milwaukee has to build a consistent winner, so you have to hope that your evaluations of these kids are correct more often than they're not.  

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Fair enough. To me though - this really doesn't represent a full-on rebuild.  In fact, I think the roster that I laid out above could be somewhat competitive as early as next year.  Maybe it's not quite a playoff team in '24, but I could see that roster at least being in the mix heading into August/September.  But, in '25 and beyond I could see that roster being a perennial playoff contender - assuming that we "hit" on a number of our own prospects along with the prospects we'd pick up in this trades.  Obviously, there is always risk involved with prospects, but it's really the only way a small market franchise like Milwaukee has to build a consistent winner, so you have to hope that your evaluations of these kids are correct more often than they're not.  

Maybe it would be competitive, though that SP staff is really weak and would probably be their undoing. But I see no reason to trade Freddy for those packages you outlined when his value should be similar a year from now.  

[Madhawk23]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Maybe it would be competitive, though that SP staff is really weak and would probably be their undoing. But I see no reason to trade Freddy for those packages you outlined when his value should be similar a year from now.  

You very well could be right about the SP.  But, let's remember that we made it all the way to a game 7 in '18 with Chacin as our #1 starter that year.  Yes, I know we had a lights out pen that year as well with Hader going multiple innings every few days, but it's still remarkable to think how far we made it that season with very mediocre starting rotation.  It's also pretty depressing to think how little postseason success we had over the past 3-4 seasons with guys like Burnes, Woody and Freddy at the top of our rotation!  

[holy rollers]

Would be fun to watch. The value of rookie contracts and early locked-in guys like Chourio, Freddy and Ashby is huge for the payroll flexibility down the line. 

How about trading Adames and Williams (saves $19 million) and re-sign Burnes. It gives you one legit ace to pair with a ton of young cheap guys for the next three years.  That way we see which of the young hitters pan out while having enough pitching to be competitive (Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Rea, Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Gasser - all of them would be under contract for at least next 3 years). 

Though the idea of trading everyone for the Future Game lineups would be fun also!  Either way, roster has a ton of flexibility and options right now. 

 

[TURBO]

Just say no to Gavin Lux.  Dude is coming off MAJOR injuries, and just isn't the kind of talent I want back for Burnes, Adames, or Williams.