The 3 Big Problems with Keeping Corbin Burnes on the 2024 Brewers

[Tim Muma]

As the offseason rolls along, more people sense the Milwaukee Brewers will keep Corbin Burnes for the 2024 season. We know the positive value that would add to the upcoming campaign, but it's important to consider the legitimate concerns involved with bringing Burnes back.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Never mind my preference that the Milwaukee Brewers trade Corbin Burnes for a topflight prospect. While I believe that's the best strategic option for the team in 2024 and beyond, the right deal might not exist. If GM Matt Arnold doesn't get what he's looking for in a swap, it's perfectly reasonable to put Burnes back at the top of the rotation, add some pieces and look to win another NL Central crown. Brewers fans should be happy to bring back the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, if that is the best route. But even if that turns out to be the most beneficial option, it has its own potential issues.

Burnes' Mental State and Negative Impact
Does Burnes really want to be pitching in Milwaukee? In no scenario would Burnes intentionally pitch below his talent level in 2024 as some protest against the Brewers. However, one's mental state can have a bearing on physical performance. At times, Burnes has seemed to be affected by externalities, such as his grievance with the Brewers after last offseason's arbitration hearing or Josh Hader getting traded during the 2022 campaign. He has acknowledged multiple times that a long-term commitment wouldn't happen in Milwaukee, and like his former manager, Burnes might already be eyeing a new opportunity.

Speaking of getting traded, that could be another item weighing on the righthander's mind. The rumors will probably be rampant early in the season. Even if the Crew are playing well, memories of the Hader trade will resurface, reminding everyone that they might ship off a main contributor if the right offer comes along, regardless of where they are in the standings. Most players say they ignore that stuff and focus on the field, but that can be easier said than done, and again, Burnes seems more susceptible to outside forces diminishing production than the average guy.

Can the Brewers Acquire Enough Offense for a Title Run?
While the pitching staff had issues in the 2023 postseason (Burnes included, ironically), the offense needs the most help going forward. Milwaukee was below league average in runs scored and lacked power, ranking 24th in home runs, and owned a .385 slugging percentage (25th). Bringing on Carlos Santana and Mark Canha midway through the season was a big boost, but both are gone now, and the lineup still lacks juice. Can the Brewers find enough offense to truly compete in 2024 without dealing Burnes?

If the Crew keeps their 29-year-old ace, it takes away a huge chip that could be cashed in for an MLB-ready power bat with a high ceiling and plenty of team control. Instead, it would leave the team to scrounge around the free-agent market, where quality options are limited, risky and potentially costly. Santana could still return, but he will be 38, and his power is not guaranteed. Free agent Rhys Hoskins could handle first base, if he committed to Milwaukee. Hoskins hit 27 and 30 home runs in 2021 and 2022, respectively, posting an OPS+ over 120 each season. However, he's coming off a torn ACL, which adds to the risk. Conversely, the uncertainty with his knee might make him more open to a one-year deal to increase his value, something the Brewers would be happy to entertain. Hoskins has had plenty of interest from other clubs, though.

"If [the Cubs] keep waiting on Hoskins, they might miss him too."@jonmorosi joins #MLBNHotStove to give insight on the market for Rhys Hoskins and reports surrounding Twins trade possibilities. pic.twitter.com/R19fHE7ylI

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 18, 2023

The third realistic option could be Jorge Soler, who hit 36 bombs with an .853 OPS last season after an injury-shortened 2022. He would cost more than Hoskins--probably three-plus years--and mostly fill the DH role, as his outfield defense is below-average at best. Milwaukee might not be willing to dedicate the DH spot to one player, preferring to use it for multiple guys in rotation. However, rosters can change quickly due to injury or opportunity, so adding thunder like Soler's could be a worthy gamble.

Still, in these scenarios, the Brewers would add just one big bat, leaving some holes in other spots. Of course, they should be willing to listen for their young outfielders now that Jackson Chourio has shot up the depth chart with his new contract. Would Arnold swap potential and long-term control for a one- or two-year veteran that might help them offensively on the infield? There would, undoubtedly, be some takers for Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer. Does Burnes's return make the club more or less open to trading one of them?

Getting "Nothing" in Return for Burnes
Especially in smaller markets, there is often the fear among fans that the team doesn't get "anything" for a player who leaves via free agency, which is why they are more apt to want a trade. Of course, suppose Burnes reaches free agency after the 2024 season, and he doesn't accept the qualifying offer the Brewers will extend to him. In that case, Milwaukee does get a compensatory pick in the upcoming draft. That could definitely become an impact player down the road.

However, fans like to have a name and face to attach to the transaction of losing a star player--immediately. Moreover, in many cases, the prospects you might trade for have a greater probability of being a high-quality big-leaguer than a new draftee. That's where organizations must decide what they value and whether or not what they've been offered in a trade is likely to be better than what they might get in the form of that draft pick.

There is another worst-case scenario with keeping Burnes throughout the 2024 season. There's always the risk of injury, particularly a major one that changes all the variables, much like what happened with Brandon Woodruff. Should Burnes suffer an injury that will knock him out for most or all of the 2025 season, the Brewers probably wouldn't be motivated to submit a qualifying offer, because Burnes would accept it. Hence, the Brewers would let him go for free, and the fans' greatest fear would be realized.

There are always pros and cons to these significant decisions that teams must make. The most important thing is that the Brewers lay out all their options, choose what they feel is the best route and fully commit thereto. Keeping Burnes instead of trading him is a viable option, with varying degrees of concern. Are those potential issues impactful enough to alter their strategy, or just another normal part of running an MLB club? What would be your biggest concern if the Brewers held on to Corbin Burnes for the 2024 season?

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[Frisbee Slider]

We did not trade Prince Fielder, I expect we won’t trade Burnes, either. I think Corbin is smarter about the business of baseball today and he will pitch to his highest potential during his final season 

[Frisbee Slider]

We had an obvious replacement for Hader’s 55 IP per year. 
 

We do not have equal replacement for Burnes’ 200 IP.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yes Santana and Canha did boost the offense the last 2 months of the 2023 season, but a big boost came from Tyrone Taylor who slugged .542 in August and .595 in September.  Which is why this is not the time to trade Taylor who should be penciled in to start the season in RF.  If Taylor can start the season anywhere close to how he finished 2023, he'd greatly increase his trade value at the deadline if they want to make room for Chourio.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Yes Santana and Canha did boost the offense the last 2 months of the 2023 season, but a big boost came from Tyrone Taylor who slugged .542 in August and .595 in September.  Which is why this is not the time to trade Taylor who should be penciled in to start the season in RF.  If Taylor can start the season anywhere close to how he finished 2023, he'd greatly increase his trade value at the deadline if they want to make room for Chourio.

I like Taylor, too, but between his inconsistency and his injury history, gosh, I do not want to see them relying on him to do anything especially important in 2024. As a complement to Frelick or Mitchell, as a platoon DH, that's fine. You can't be in a position where he needs to bat fifth or play every day, because he's just never shown the ability to sustain success and stay healthy over a decent span to a level that would fulfill those responsibilities.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Burnes has chosen to gamble on himself staying healthy in order to reach that huge free agent payday next offseason - at this point anything related to injury risk and his state of mind goes almost exclusively on his shoulders....not sure the Brewers should be too worried about a guy's desire to pitch like an ace during his free agent year.

I've long looked at pitchers from the lens of how a small market team needs to prioritize getting value out of them through their mid-late twenties pitching for you, then determine the best way to find an off-ramp to avoid being saddled with a cumbersome, overpriced contract for an arm too far on the wrong side of 30 - even if it means sacrificing a few late 20's prime years by either letting him walk in free agency and getting a comp pick or trading him at the deadline.  After the next few key agent starters sign elsewhere, there will be a couple teams interested in trading for Burnes before the season starts, and the question becomes if the trade packages offered are worth the Brewers trading him away, or if one more season with him anchoring a still solid pitching staff is more valuable to a roster that at present is still the best team in the division with Burnes on it.  Trading Burnes in the offseason does get more return for him, but it also essentially punts on trying to be a true contender this year - which might not be the right plan for the rest of the roster.  

I'm a proponent of rolling with Burnes as the Brewers' 2024 Opening Day starter unless they get an incredibly valuable trade return, then if the Brewers are in playoff position come the trade deadline they add more via trade, otherwise if things don't get off to a great start the Brewers can get aggressive and get Burnes on the trade market well before July to still get a quality return.

Reality is, at this point there are zero problems with keeping Burnes on the Brewers' roster to start 2024.  If the Brewers turn around and resign Santana to play 1st and splurge on Soler to be their DH via free agency, suddenly their lineup looks alot more balanced.  It really will be interesting to see what direction the Brewers will take things with a roster that already will have a bunch of young and exciting talent on it.

[Outlander]

I don't think Burnes will be negative, he knows what to expect from arbitration and based on some of his comments is content with this being the last season with the Brewers. The Brewers have done a lot of half measures over the years, balancing staying competitive and still bringing in fans. If they do keep Burnes I hope they make some moves to make this offense better. If they roll with the youngsters I don't see it going well and being to make it up with a couple of mid season pickups like they did with Canha/Santana.

[jay87shot]

I don't think Burnes would be a negative drain on the clubhouse. Last year was essentially the same as next year will be from a contract perspective. As long as we don't overuse him I think he will be who he was.

6 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We had an obvious replacement for Hader’s 55 IP per year. 
 

We do not have equal replacement for Burnes’ 200 IP.

We probably couldn't replace Cy Young version of Burnes but the Burnes from last year we can. Burnes was worth 3.5 WAR (baseball-reference) last year, Lauer, Teheran, Houser, Rae were worth 1.9 WAR in over 60 starts (essentially the 4/5 rotation spots) So between the ace and 4/5 spots we would need to replace 5.4 (say 6 WAR). Peralta wasn't great so he could easily pick up a win or two more. Getting 3 two win pitchers won't be to crazy. Now replacing Woodruff may be more difficult because he had 2.4 WAR in 11 starts, which a more effective Burnes and Peralta could do on their own.

I think the only problem is losing him for just a comp. pick. (or nothing if an injury.

[monty57]

Holding on to Burnes is the best way to assure that we will need a rebuild period. If we don't get a top-tier prospect back from him, it'll make it a lot harder to compete in the coming years.

For those who think that we couldn't be competitive if we trade him this year (getting a top-tier young MLB-ready player back), how the heck are we going to remain competitive in the coming years without him or the top-tier young player we didn't get because we didn't make the trade?

I believe that we could be just as competitive with someone like Ricky Tiedeman or Kyle Harrison in the rotation from the trade, while using the money we would've spent on Burnes to sign someone like Hoskins, as we are with Burnes in the rotation for one more year with our current offense. Then, next year, we'd still have Tiedemann/Harrison playing for around league minimum, while the other team would be wondering how to replace Burnes (or paying him $40M+ in an extension). 

The Brewers can't spend like some other teams, so they can't just rebuild through free agency. They need to maintain a steady stream of young, cheap talent, so they can't afford to lose the value they'd get from a Burnes trade. Woodruff's injury (and the loss of ability to trade him) is a huge setback. We can't double-down and lose out on the return we could get from trading Burnes. 

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

we don't get a top-tier prospect back from him, it'll make it a lot harder to compete in the coming years.

Sometimes top prospects end up being Nick Neugebauer, Lewis Brinson or Jose Capellan.
Burnes won Cy Young in 2021 and provides the organization the best bite at the apple opportunity we have for the near future.

[monty57]

14 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Sometimes top prospects end up being Nick Neugebauer, Lewis Brinson or Jose Capellan.
Burnes won Cy Young in 2021 and provides the organization the best bite at the apple opportunity we have for the near future.

And sometimes former MVPs get extended and start playing like a replacement level player. There's risk to anything the team does. 

If he is not traded Burnes will be here for one more year, and then he is going to sign a monster deal elsewhere. He is not going to be a Brewer beyond 2024. 

When Melvin decided to hold onto Fielder, he traded the farm for Marcum and Grienke (both with two years of team control) in an attempt to "go all in" and win it all. It didn't work out, and we continued to get worse over the next few seasons as we didn't have any pre-arby guys coming up, so we had to fill out the roster with expensive older guys in a downward spiral that eventually led to Attanasio blowing things up and bringing in Stearns to go a different route.

There are proponents to "going all in," and I see the allure even if I don't think it's a good long-term plan. However, if we are going to "go all in," which would seem the only logical strategy if we are holding Burnes for the year and then letting him walk, then we need to add a lot more talent than we have. We need to trade away a bunch of our prospects to get some better options for places like 1B, 3B, DH, and SP. We'll also need to push the payroll higher than it appears they are willing to go this year. 

In other words, we'll need to undo much of what Stearns and Co built that has led to arguably the most successful run of baseball in Brewer history in order to "go for it all" this year. Otherwise, I don't see any logical reason to hold Burnes. Your betting against the odds thinking that having Burnes this year (with the current make-up of the team) gives us a better chance of winning it all than trading him and getting a lot of prospect talent back for the next 5-6 years.

Also, Neugebauer wasn't one of the top prospects in baseball. He had a big arm, and it was exciting for a team starved for pitching to finally have a guy in the minors to cheer for, but I would expect a better prospect than him in return for Burnes. I get your point that the prospect may fail, but the guys I mentioned are already MLB ready, and we'd have full 6+ years of control. That limits the risk vs trading for a couple of guys in the lower minors.

Again, there is risk to anything the team does. I just think the team needs to stick with the longer-term method of team building that they implemented when Stearns was hired. It has had success for a team that doesn't have a very successful history, so I'd hate to blow things up just to hold onto a good player for one more year when logically it makes sense to trade the likely 3-4 WAR he'll provide this season for the potential of far more value than that over the next half-decade in a prospect(s) that will form the next core along with guys like Chourio, Contreras, Frelick, etc. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

When Melvin decided to hold onto Fielder, he traded the farm for Marcum and Grienke (both with two years of team control) 

Losing Cain stung, although that loss was pretty easily offset by the addition of Gomez in a future trade, but besides Cain the only other thing they lost was a knucklehead known more for his 40-hands photo than anything he did at the MLB level on the field and a slick fielding SS who never hit enough to miss him.  Odorizzi also made a nice career for himself as a mid to bottom of the rotation starter, but the upside that Greinke brought to a Brewers team desperate for a TOR starter but good enough to win it all offensively was well worth sending over a handful of prospects.

I don't think there's an obvious "only way" to approach Burnes this year for the overall longterm helath of the franchise - it's not a cut and dry "trade him no matter what" or "roll with him 1 more season before he leaves".  The Brewers have the budget flexibility to play "wait and see", afford whatever arbitration salary Burnes will earn if they retain him through arbitration, and see how things shake out with any trade offers between now and the deadline.  Given the current state of the NL Central, I think the Brewers would have to get a massive trade offer to move Burnes now - if it seems just like a fair deal, why not hold onto him into the season and then see how the Brewers start?  If they're scuffling, they could get a "fair deal" a month or two into the season as well, particularly if a team obviously geared up to try and win it all has some significant pitching injuries in their rotation.  The Dodgers and Rangers are already in that spot with arms that either won't be ready to start the season (DeGrom/Scherzer) or starters with extensive injury histories that could easily struggle early (Buehler, Glasnow, Kershaw, ...basically the entire Dodger rotation at this point).

[Frisbee Slider]

30 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Also, Neugebauer wasn't one of the top prospects in baseball.

In fair to Neugebauer, he was #17 prospect in baseball for 2002, per Baseball America. Ahead of Josh Hamilton, Adam Wainwright, Brandon Phillips and Justin Morneau.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2002~BA/

[Frisbee Slider]

16 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I don't think there's an obvious "only way" to approach Burnes this year for the overall longterm helath of the franchise - it's not a cut and dry "trade him no matter what"

I agree. Not that it should matter a ton but perhaps there is also a little bit of boosting the psyche of Brewers fans that we don’t always trade our pending free agents.

[wibadgers23]

If they want to hold onto Burnes and try and make another run in 2024, then as monty pointed out, they better not half-ass this offseason. Get some guys who can hit the ball. Spend some money. Do what you have to do to surround the pitching staff with a halfway decent offense.

[monty57]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:33 AM, Frisbee Slider said:

In fair to Neugebauer, he was #17 prospect in baseball for 2002, per Baseball America. Ahead of Josh Hamilton, Adam Wainwright, Brandon Phillips and Justin Morneau.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2002~BA/

Thanks for that. I remember the excitement, but I guess I forgot he was that highly regarded nationwide. Shame for a team and a fanbase that really needed a boost that he had his injury issues.

[monty57]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:21 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

When Melvin decided to hold onto Fielder, he traded the farm for Marcum and Grienke (both with two years of team control) 

Losing Cain stung, although that loss was pretty easily offset by the addition of Gomez in a future trade, but besides Cain the only other thing they lost was a knucklehead known more for his 40-hands photo than anything he did at the MLB level on the field and a slick fielding SS who never hit enough to miss him.  Odorizzi also made a nice career for himself as a mid to bottom of the rotation starter, but the upside that Greinke brought to a Brewers team desperate for a TOR starter but good enough to win it all offensively was well worth sending over a handful of prospects.

I don't think there's an obvious "only way" to approach Burnes this year for the overall longterm helath of the franchise - it's not a cut and dry "trade him no matter what" or "roll with him 1 more season before he leaves".  The Brewers have the budget flexibility to play "wait and see", afford whatever arbitration salary Burnes will earn if they retain him through arbitration, and see how things shake out with any trade offers between now and the deadline.  Given the current state of the NL Central, I think the Brewers would have to get a massive trade offer to move Burnes now - if it seems just like a fair deal, why not hold onto him into the season and then see how the Brewers start?  If they're scuffling, they could get a "fair deal" a month or two into the season as well, particularly if a team obviously geared up to try and win it all has some significant pitching injuries in their rotation.  The Dodgers and Rangers are already in that spot with arms that either won't be ready to start the season (DeGrom/Scherzer) or starters with extensive injury histories that could easily struggle early (Buehler, Glasnow, Kershaw, ...basically the entire Dodger rotation at this point).

Cain gave the Royals 20.80 fWAR in his time there. Escobar added 11.40 fWAR as a Royal, Odorizzi was part of a trade for James Shields, and gave the Rays 6.20 WAR in his time as a Ray. The only one who didn't really work out for the Royals was Jeffress.

Grienke posted 3.3 WAR for the Brewers in 2011 and was traded as the Brewers disappointed in 2012.

This is why I think it's best for the Brewers to trade Burnes away. He's projected to add around 3.8 WAR in 2024. You insinuated that the Brewers didn't really give up that much, but just in the Grienke trade, the Royals got 38.40 WAR (and two World Series appearances, one win) in return for 3.3 WAR in 2011. At least Grienke was able to get traded away, Burnes will not, he'll simply leave as a free agent.

A bigger revenue team can make up for that by signing a big-named free agent. Those trades really hurt teams that can't build through free agency.