Are the Reds the Biggest Threat to the Brewers in the NL Central?

[Kyle Ginsbach]

The MLB offseason is far from over, but one of the Brewers' division rivals is rumored to have finished building their team. The question is; are the Reds the biggest threat in the NL Central?

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The NL Central has been in a constant state of flux, with experts and fans alike having trouble picking a winner of the division for the past handful of years. No one has repeated as the division winner since the Cubs in 2017, so a Brewers repeat is anything but guaranteed. As it stands now, every team in the Central has a chance to dethrone Milwaukee, but perhaps no team has a better chance than the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds had an interesting 2023 campaign. They got off to a slow start, before enjoying a red-hot June and July, then cooling off down the stretch. They enjoyed breakout seasons from T.J. Friedl, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer, and had an electrifying debut from then-top prospect Elly De La Cruz that made Cincinnati the hottest baseball town in America for two summer months. They struggled to find reliable starting pitching and consistent bullpen work, despite good seasons from closer Alexis Diaz and starter Andrew Abbott. Notably, the Reds struggled to beat the Brewers last year, ending with a 3-10 record against Milwaukee. They would finish the season 82-80, but are undoubtedly aiming for a higher win total this year.

So that begs the question: Where will Cincinnati's improvement come from?

Offseason Additions
The Reds haven’t made the big splash some expected, but they have added to a weak pitching staff with some proven major leaguers. They first padded their bullpen by adding pitchers Emilio Pagan (2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 IP in 2023) and Nick Martinez (3.43 ERA in 110 1/3 IP), both of whom found success in their roles last year. They also added veteran starter Frankie Montas, who only pitched a third of an inning last year, but did finish sixth in the Cy Young voting as recently as 2021. Perhaps their biggest splash was signing infielder Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45-million contract after his breakout season in 2023, wherein he slashed .251/.336/.471 with the Nationals and Cubs. In total, the Reds have committed $105.25 million to their roster for 2024, a number nearly $10 million higher than the Brewers' projected payroll.

By adding Pagán and Martinez, the Reds are aiming to find some consistency behind their star closer, Díaz, and with the addition of Montas they are hoping for a dependable back-end rotation arm, with a high ceiling. The signing of Candelario, while expensive, raises their offensive ceiling, and gives the team flexibility within their infield, as Candelario can play both third and first base. To hear the team tell it, they're essentially done making other major additions.

Better Health and Internal Improvements
There was no player the Reds missed more last year than Hunter Greene, who pitched in only 112 innings due to a hip injury.  Despite never putting together an above-average season, Greene's raw pitching talent is Cy Young-caliber. The Reds expect Greene to be their ace, and a fully healthy season will be the first step in that process. Their other starters battled injuries, as they had no pitcher eclipse 150 innings, and only four got past the century mark in innings. The additions of Montas, Pagán, and Martinez will take some of the workload off the depth-challenged 2023 pitching staff, so the team should be able to find more consistency in 2024.

The Reds will also count on the further development of their young stars, specifically De La Cruz, who has obvious All-Star potential. Bounce-back seasons from Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson could make a difference for them. Players like Will Benson and Noelvi Marte will benefit from more playing time next year, too, while McLain, Steer, and Friedl will aim to continue to build on their impressive 2023 campaigns.

Obviously, they'll need the largest improvements is in starting pitching. Greene, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo will all have to perform better next year, while Montas and Martinez will need to be consistent in their rotation spots, as well. All five men have the talent to form a good rotation, but that remains to be seen.

Conclusion
The seeds of improvement have already been planted in Cincinnati, but will it be enough to contend for a division title? Simply put, yes. There’s no reason the Reds won’t be in the hunt. They’ve made the most substantial additions in the offseason, and despite losing former MVP Joey Votto, the Reds arguably didn't lose any real value on their roster. Like Milwaukee, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, they have numerous promising young players who will improve as they spend more time in the league. Overall, they might be in the best position to succeed.

There’s no other team in the NL Central that has greater potential to improve during the coming season than the Reds. They may have finished 10 games behind Milwaukee, but they’ve done more than enough to help close that gap. With the Cubs still yet to make offseason upgrades to their roster, the Reds might just be that single biggest threat to Milwaukee in the division. Do you believe Cincinnati can seriously challenge the Crew in 2024?

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[SF70]

It’s the depth of young talent that is staggering. Maybe not the generational talent of an Adley & Gunner, but if pitching is included, maybe more overall team talent than Baltimore.

Regression is coming from some of their positionals, but they go 10-11 deep, so they can option and replace to get better performance and their pitching is better than they showed last year. 

A healthy Lodolo will give the rotation a boost, and with a healthy Montas? they go 6 deep at worst with #4 starters. No team in the division can match that.

Connor Phillips and his upper 90’s FB is knocking at the door as well. 

Very underrated bullpen of last year returns with Pagán and Martinez likely improving the performance of the pen overall.

Definitely a NL Central title contender this season and should become a SM monster in the seasons ahead.

The NL Central is trending towards being the best division in baseball over the next 3-4 years. Every team has a nice young core and top 5-10 farm system except St Louis.

[Frisbee Slider]

‘They may have finished 10 games behind Milwaukee, but they’ve done more than enough to help close that gap.’

Close the gap, sure. However, the Reds did not improve their roster by 5+ wins and the Brewers did not get five games worse.

Milwaukee lost Woodruff but he only pitched 67 innings. Canha had 178 AB. We can add another Canha at the deadline this year, too. I bet we resign Santana.

EDLC had .628 OPS after the all star break. He could even start the year in Triple-A.

I think Milwaukee’s young talent improves by equal or greater measure than Cincinnati.

[Fear The Chorizo]

At this point in time, I think the Reds are solidly the 2nd best team in the division because the Cubs have gotten markedly worse pending any additional roster moves (honestly, besides paying CC $40M to manage they've done squat besides see key bats for their 2023 roster in Candelario and Bellinger leave the roster, plus their 2023 Opening Day starter is also a free agent), and the Brewers have actually improved their roster from the 2023 club that won 92 games.

If the Brewers truly do plan on rolling with Burnes during his free agent year and keep Adames/Williams in their roles to start 2024 instead of trading them, they are still the clear favorite to win the division with a ballclub capable of churning out 88-94 wins.  And, I think they have a chance to make significant roster upgrades at 1B, DH, or 3B via free agency to further separate themselves from the Reds.  The Cubs could obviously throw a ton of $$ at Bellinger, a starter, and a closer/reliever, but honestly if they did all 3 of those things it would basically get them back to where they were in 2023 in terms of win projections.

[jay87shot]

On 1/4/2024 at 9:12 AM, Frisbee Slider said:

‘They may have finished 10 games behind Milwaukee, but they’ve done more than enough to help close that gap.’

Close the gap, sure. However, the Reds did not improve their roster by 5+ wins and the Brewers did not get five games worse.

Milwaukee lost Woodruff but he only pitched 67 innings. Canha had 178 AB. We can add another Canha at the deadline this year, too. I bet we resign Santana.

EDLC had .628 OPS after the all star break. He could even start the year in Triple-A.

I think Milwaukee’s young talent improves by equal or greater measure than Cincinnati.

I do feel like the Reds have gotten well better than 5 games. Don't forget McClain, Strand, Elly, Benson, Marte played less than 100 games. There is some regression from some that could be assumed but some of those young guys will be better or at least defensively not play out of position.

They also got 52 starts from starters with ERA'S over 6. With a rotation of Greene, Montas, Martinez, Lodolo, Abbott, Ashcraft, Williamson and young high ceiling starters like Phillips, Lowder, and Petty not to far away. Not to mention a bunch of quality bullpen arms even though none are elite after Diaz maybe.

[jay87shot]

I still expect the Cubs to sign a quality bat and starter. I am going to guess Hoskins/Chapman and Imagana/Snell. I don't think they will be much better unless they get a couple bullpen arms as well.

The Cards improved their rotation and still have a high potential offense, 

The Pirates are young and get O'Neil Cruz back. Gonzalez, Perez, Rowdy don't move the needle much but I doubt they are worse.

Something has to give hopefully not us.