Could the Brewers Replicate Their Legendary 2018 Double Move?

[Ryan Pollak]

Six years ago, the Brewers made two of the biggest acquisitions in team history within hours of each other. As it turned out, they turned the corner from hopeful challengers to NL Central champions that day. Can Matt Arnold repeat that miracle?

Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s look back at one of the greatest days of Brewers franchise history: January 25, 2018. After a 2017 season wherein they ended one game shy of the second Wild Card spot, the Brewers looked ready to compete with their young crop of players. Travis Shaw, Orlando Arcia, Jonathan Villar and Eric Thames filled out the infield nicely. Manny Piña and Jett Bandy at catcher seemed decent for the immediate future. With Hernán Pérez and Jesús Aguilar set as reserves, it seemed the lineup was all but set--that is, except for the outfield.

Besides Ryan Braun, the other outfielders on the roster were all under the age of 25. Domingo Santana had been called up and down for the last few seasons. Keon Broxton was great defensively, though boom-or-bust at bat. Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips were just getting their feet wet against MLB pitching. That’s pretty much it.

Then, on a random Thursday in January, the Brewers changed their franchise forever by adding Christian Yelich from the Marlins and Lorenzo Cain via free agency. Just like that, the Brewers had a roster craving their first World Series appearance since 1982. They didn’t get there, but they were one win away. But for the dual heroics of Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig, they'd have gotten over the hump.

We are coming up on six years since that team-altering day. Surely, there is no way of replicating that feat, right? Well, what if they can? The Brewers' projected 2024 payroll is only around $96.5 million which is $30 million less than what it was at the end of the 2023 season. With the second-best overall farm system (according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook) and money to spend, they have the potential to do something huge again. This will be a series, fleshing out three different scenarios in which the Brewers could try to recapture the magic of that one day in January 2018. Today, it's this one.

Trade for Luis Arráez and Sign Rhys Hoskins
With the recent news that the Miami Marlins are listening to offers on anybody on their roster, it could intrigue the Brewers to trade for the player who won batting titles for each of the last two seasons. The two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner is coming off his first year with Miami, providing a .354/.393/.469 line fueled by a 5.5 percent strike out rate.

He would not provide much pop in the lineup, as he only has 24 career home runs over five seasons. However, loanDepot Park is considered a pitcher-friendly ballpark, whereas American Family Field is the opposite. The best example is Yelich himself; he was averaging around 15 home runs a season before coming to Milwaukee. I’m not saying Arraez will start mashing the ball as a Brewer, but we might see some sort of jump in raw power numbers.

The Brewers could use Arráez as the leadoff hitter and play him at second base. If they want to see current second baseman Brice Turang step up this season, then Arraez can slide to first, where he has played 619 innings in MLB and rates as an average-plus defender.

Arráez, 26, has two years of club control remaining and hasn’t settled on a deal with the Marlins this season. Those parties (or Arráez and his new team) are headed toward an arbitration hearing in February. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, he will make either $10.8 million or $12 million if the two sides don’t come to an agreement.

The deal that would make most sense to me is one of the young outfielders (in this case, Joey Wiemer) and a prospect set to make his MLB debut this season, Tyler Black. As the roster stands, Wiemer is one of two outfielders who are right-handed hitters. If Jackson Chourio is going to get the lion's share of the playing time in center field in 2024, Wiemer will have to try to find at-bats on the short side of a platoon with Sal Frelick and as a defensive-minded stopgap for Yelich.

Black was drafted as a second baseman back in 2021, but could play third, first and/or the outfield if the team desires. His arm strength isn’t the greatest, and he's still trying to find a role within the organization. He would fill the role that Arráez had in Miami, with four or five extra years of team control. In 39 games with Nashville, Black hit .310/.428/.514, with four homers and eight walks.

Yes, it would suck to lose a player of his caliber, but it must hurt a little bit to acquire an All-Star. Given the legitimate questions about Black's power projection, Arráez offers a balance of certainty and upside that Black can't match, despite his promise. However, the Brewers still could use an upgrade at first base. The revolving door could come to a stop in its frame, if the Crew sign former Philadelphia Phillies first baseman, Rhys Hoskins.

Hoskins was out for the entirety of the 2023 regular season and the playoffs, due to a torn ACL he suffered in spring training. With Bryce Harper becoming the regular first baseman for the Phillies, Hoskins is now looking for a new club that needs one. Hoskins has hit 148 home runs in six seasons, and has an OPS+ of 125. He would provide pop in a lineup that could use some, with Rowdy Tellez, Mark Canha and Carlos Santana no longer part of the club.

Hoskins is projected to make $16-18 million a year in free agency. Maybe the Brewers can offer him a three-year deal worth $52 million, with a club option for the third season. Like the Kolton Wong deal in 2021, the Brewers can defer some money for future seasons, or backload the deal to alleviate the payroll impact for the 2024 season.

If the Brewers can pull this off, they could add $25-30 million to the payroll and stay at roughly the same amount as they paid out last season. At the same time, they would add two important pieces to the lineup, without destroying an incredible minor-league system.

Would you be in favor of this bold move, aimed at keeping the Brewers atop the NL Central heap in the medium term but potentially applying pressure for the team to bolster its pitching staff when Corbin Burnes departs next winter? Would a lineup with Arráez and Hoskins intermingled with Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames, and the team's less certain young players be good enough to get them past any of the National League's titans come October? Jump into the comments to discuss it, and come back tomorrow for another vision of how Arnold could pull this off.

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[sveumrules]

One of Mitchell or Wiemer makes sense given the OF surplus, but I wouldn’t want to include Black since that just creates a bigger hole at 3B for the MLB club in 2024.

The Brewers internal evaluation of Arraez glove would likely be a big factor too.

If they think he is a scratch defender at 2B like DRS does (+2 career), that’s probably fine next to Hoskins (-7 DRS | -11 OAA career) coming off an ACL.

If they think Luis at 2B is closer to his OAA marks (-25 career), they might have him pegged as more of a 1B/DH only guy on the defensive spectrum.

[jay87shot]

I wouldn't mind that scenario however I don't know if adding 30 or so million to the payroll would really work (I would like it to). Maybe you create a 3 team trade where Burnes goes somewhere and we get Arraez. 

1. We get Arraez, Edward Cabrera, and lotto type prospect from both Phillies and Marlins, the Phillies get Burnes and Payamps, the Marlins get Mick Abel, Aiden Miller, Christopher Sanchez, Willy Adames (maybe Adames somewhere else)
2. Sign Hoskins (I would prefer Justin Turner)
3. Trade Weimer for Alex Manoah or Emerson Hancock or Gavin Stone

1)DH Yelich 2)C Contreras 3) 2B Arraez 4) 1B Hoskins/Turner 5)RF Mitchell 6) CF Chourio 7)LF Frelick 8) 3B Black 8) SS Turang

1)Peralta 2) Cabrera 3)Manoah 4)Miley 5) Rae/Gasser

Not to bad

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

59 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers internal evaluation of Arraez glove would likely be a big factor too.

If they think he is a scratch defender at 2B like DRS does (+2 career), that’s probably fine next to Hoskins (-7 DRS | -11 OAA career) coming off an ACL.

If they think Luis at 2B is closer to his OAA marks (-25 career), they might have him pegged as more of a 1B/DH only guy on the defensive spectrum.

The biggest problem with Arraez isn't his defense, it's his health. When he's healthy, he can hold his own at second base. He's not great by any means but with that bat, he's far from a liability.

The problem is that the guy cannot keep his lower body healthy and he's only getting older. And when his lower body starts to be a problem, even if he stays on the field he's diminished in every capacity, and by a lot.

Luis Arraez is fantastic if he's feeling good and hitting .330. But what happens is that he gets banged up and hits .270 for a couple of months with brutal defense. And his player type just isn't valuable at .270.

But he's legitimately one of the most fun players to watch on a nightly basis.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not worried about giving up either Black or Wiemer.  They drafted Brock Wilken to be the long term answer at 3B not Black and there's a chance he'd be ready by 2025.  With Arraez at 2B they could move Turang to SS and Adames to 3B in the short term.  Another option is to give Monasterio the first shot at 3B.

If they can't get Hoskins, Justin Turner doesn't make a bad consolation prize (at least for 24) and he can still play occasionally at 3B.

I don't think these moves them much closer to the Dodgers and the Braves but at the very least could keep them competitive in the division.

[gregmag]

I'm not sold that the positive difference between Arraez as a 2b-1b and Black as a (3b?-)2b-1b will be worth the cost.  Black appears to have more power and more speed.  He's substantially younger and healthier.  He's substantially cheaper, if you believe opportunity costs are relevant for this front office (and whether or not you believe it, I'm pretty sure the front office does).

 

We're just about to see the baseline, the starting point, for what Black can do in MLB.  That seems like a terrible time to trade a guy who can potentially do things we need.  The presence of Wilken shouldn't cause us to devalue Black, any more than the presence of Quero should cause us to devalue Contreras.  Let's learn whether, hopefully how, Black can make us better. 

[Harold Hutchison]

I'd actually look at a three-team deal with Burnes going to a team, who sends their prospects to Miami, who sends the Crew Arraez.

Here's one I worked out with the Astros.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/161174

Brewers get: IF/DH Luis Arraez

Astros get: RHP Corbin Burnes

Marlins get: OF Jacob Melton and RP Bryan Abreu

 

Brewers line-up after the deal:

CF: Frelick

1B: Arraez

DH: Yelich

C: Contreras

RF: Mitchell/Wiemer

SS: Adames

3B: Black

LF: Chourio

2B: Turang/Monasterio

 

The Crew can then see how things go in 2024, not just with trying to extend Arraez, but how Wes Clarke and Ernesto Martinez develop at first, and how Wilken progresses. Then. they can flip Arraez or if they can reach an extension... then Frelick and Arraez become a real potent 1-2 punch.