Matt Arnold Is Confident In Aaron Ashby, Should Fans Feel The Same?

[Bashopolis]

Aaron Ashby missed all of the 2023 season with a shoulder injury. Is he ready to contribute to the 2024 Brewers?

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers are getting some promising news on Aaron Ashby. Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold has said that Ashby is “Doing well; these shoulder injuries are always tricky. Excited about what he can do for us this year.” Recently, Arnold has spoken about Ashby being part of the Brewers' starting rotation.      

It isn't easy projecting what to expect from Ashby, so many haven’t been projecting much. ZIPS projects Ashby to pitch 81 innings in 26 games, including 17 starts, but they don’t include him as one of the Brewers' top six starting pitchers. They are bullish on his skillset, predicting Ashby to have a better ERA than any other Brewers starting pitcher not named Freddy Peralta.    

If healthy, Ashby could show some significant development. He is entering his age 26 season, statistically, when a pitcher provides the greatest WAR and innings pitched to a team. If Ashby had not been injured last year, one would expect his arm to be built up to workhorse levels by this year, being his third full season in the majors. 

In addition to returning from injury, some other red flags may limit our expectations for Ashby. Primary amongst these is his inability to win battles later in a start or during a jam. Ashby’s career OPS against when facing a hitter for a third time through the lineup is .903. His OPS against runners on base is .815, and his OPS with two outs and runners on base is 1.098. Those aren’t good numbers. 

But he has the stuff. Brewer Fanatic pegged Ashby as a potential breakout player before the 2023 season. In 2022, his slider was ranked ninth in vertical movement and 24th in horizontal. movement His sinker ranked 30th in horizontal movement. Is it just knowing how to pitch in key situations and use his stuff best? Do these adjustments come with experience?    

An optimistic comparison for Ashby would be Brandon Woodruff’s age 26 season. That is the year Woodruff put things together, lowered his walk per nine from 3.0 to 2.2, and showed his potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter (3.62 ERA) through 121 innings. Even though he has more major league innings than Woodruff did at age 26, Ashby could see this type of breakout.   

Ashby has a different pitch mix and has greater issues with control (career 3.8 walks per nine), so Woodruff's level of development may be too much. A more tempered but optimistic projection can have him on the same trajectory but toward being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. In this scenario, Ashby could throw around 120 innings in 2024 with an ERA of around 4.00, roughly league average starter material.       

To begin the season, the Brewers will likely be very careful with how they use Ashby, perhaps limiting him to 60 to 80 pitches an outing. It would be best to do this as a starter to ensure consistent rest between outings. An Aaron Ashby/Bryse Wilson piggyback may be seen quite a bit. If Ashby is successful, he could stretch out to go deeper into games. Robert Gasser, who pitched 135.1 very good innings in Triple-A Nashville last season, is also pounding on the door to see big-league time in Milwaukee later this summer.

Any projection for Aaron Ashby is presented with two caveats.  Will he be healthy? Labrum tears have derailed several pitchers’ careers. And will he take the developmental steps to harness his raw stuff and improve results later in innings and games?

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[Joseph Zarr]

If he made huge strides this off-season, sure he could make an impact. Those shoulder injuries are so tricky so I don't think any if us, including the Brewers, really knows what it's going to look like this Spring. The Aaron Ashby we saw rehabbing last year, however, if we're simply being brutally honest wasn't even a Double-A pitcher. His velocity was way down. His movement was restricted - from the pitch to his physical body on the mound. He was extremely hittable and the results bore that out outing after outing.  I don't begrudge Ashby for that in any capacity (tho I do question why he was sped up the affiliate ladder in playoff pursuits) - it was fabulous to see him going through the steps on the mound. BUT, it greatly tempered my own expectations heading into 2024. I'd just like to see him stay healthy and work back to some semblance of his former self before I have expectations of what he might do for the Big League roster. I heard Arnold's thoughts this past month and felt they were pretty bullish all things considered.

[JohnBriggs12]

Well Arnold's faith in him might be a big part of the reason that Houser was dealt.  Will be interesting to which pitcher has the better season, Ashby or Houser?  My money is on Houser in the short term.  My inkling is that Gasser starts more games than Ashby too.  Arnold has to be patient with Ashby.  He's signed through 2027.

Edited February 1, 2024 by JohnBriggs12
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[rock80911]

Ashby is being seen as a middle rotation starter. A previous article has Gasser as a middle of rotation starter. Misiorowski has less than a handful of games over 5 innings and many see him as a possible closer more than a starter (hope not). Question is, where is our future 1-2 starter with Freddy?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, rock80911 said:

Ashby is being seen as a middle rotation starter. A previous article has Gasser as a middle of rotation starter. Misiorowski has less than a handful of games over 5 innings and many see him as a possible closer more than a starter (hope not). Question is, where is our future 1-2 starter with Freddy?

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

I'm also concerned about the state of the Brewers rotation beyond this season (and even somewhat this season). The Stearns/Arnold era produced so many great starters in a short period of time but we've yet to see anyone materialize in the past several years.

Is Ashby that guy? I hope so but I'm skeptical. A lot is banking on Misiorowski.