Camp Storylines: Is Jackson Chourio a Legit Big-Leaguer Now?

[Jason Wang]

Spring training is a great time to get a sneak peek at Brewers players heading into a fresh season, but no player has more eyes on him than Jackson Chourio. How should fans expect him to hold up at the major league level in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

It makes sense that a player with a record-breaking contract extension has high expectations. Meant to be the future face of the franchise, Jackson Chourio is an exceptionally well-rounded talent with incredible speed and fielding. He played an outstanding center field in Double A last year and stole 43 bases, earning his 70-grade run tool and a minor-league Gold Glove for his troubles. Expanding on these tools, MLB.com had this to say:

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With plus-plus speed, Chourio pushed the envelope more than ever on the bases last season. He’s more than capable of tracking down balls in the gaps as a center fielder, though he still needs work going aggressively into the walls. And while elbow trouble early in his career limited his arm strength, the Brewers gave him some looks in right.

Offensively, he had a strong slash line of .280/.336/.467 over 559 plate appearances but that only tells part of the story. He also had a strikeout rate of 18.4% with a walk rate of 7.3%, notably walking at a much higher 10.8% when facing lefty pitching. 

While we don’t have a ton of great data on things like slugging percentage by zone or exit velocity for Double A, we do have spray charts and boy do they thicken the plot. While many players tend to land most of their batted balls and home runs to one side of the ballpark, Chourio is truly capable of hitting to all parts of the field, making it difficult for opposing defenders to position against him. Here’s a spray chart for all of his hits with the Shuckers in 2023. 

While one might expect a power righty to pull most of home runs to left field, Chourio defies expectations and has roughly the same amount of home runs on both sides. Many of his singles actually went up the middle to right field. 

If he does make the opening day roster and sticks around, we’ll get to see how he adjusts the major league pitching, quite the step up from Double A. We got a taste of how much he’s already improved this offseason by seeing him post a .984 OPS over 75 plate appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League, a big improvement over the .644 OPS he posted in the same league last year. He has also played in just one spring training game thus far, going 2-for-4 with two RBI against the Padres. 

For the season ahead, ZiPS has him projected to slash .263/.306/.408 for a slightly below-average wRC+ of 92, but has incredible long-term numbers according to Dan Szymborski. This is an important note, as it can be easy to forget that he’ll be a fresh-faced 20-year old on opening day and his contract is an investment into the future. Chourio has a long way to go, but he’s a top prospect for a reason. It won’t be long before he earns the title of “legit” big-leaguer.

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How do you think Chourio will perform in his rookie year? What do you think are his main areas of improvement? Let us know in the comments?

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[Ignitor 4ever]

My opinion is that he is on the opening day roster.  The contract extension was the signal that the team believes he is ready to make the jump.  I'll predict that April and May will be rough months for him and many on here will start to throw out questions about sending him down to Triple-A.  However, I think by June he will start to figure things out.  That seems to be his track record.  I'm with Yelich, just let him play and figure it out.  He has the talent.  If nothing else, he will give us good defense, speed on the basepaths and a bat that has a high ceiling that will only improve over the course of the season.  This is the season for Chourio to really get his feet wet.

[Bashopolis]

Considering the contract, Chourio will have to play his way off the opening day roster this spring rather than play his way onto it.  

I'm not sure that is the right call, but likely the reality.  I would have liked to have seen the Brewers provide Chourio the opportunity to mash at AAA.  Hitting has a lot to do with confidence and being one of the top 10 hitters at AAA for two or three months could have helped Chourio's confidence going into the majors.  

My real concern is that the Brewers haven't produced an above average hitter out of their farm system in a very long time.  I don't have great confidence that they have adequately prepared Chourio.  Many recent prospects have come to the majors with a major hole or deficiency. (there is no way Weimer should have made it through the system with that swing.)  Chourio may be the unusual talent that overcomes the deficiencies the Brewers have in producing above average hitters.  But I would prefer the Brewers are careful considering their track record.  Chourio can be a generational player IF the Brewers get this right.  

And for this year, there are other options to be sorted in the outfield in April and May.  So delaying Chourio for a couple of months could make sense.  

[Trax]

He's a great talent, I'm glad I got to see him play at Appleton.  My only concern is putting too much pressure on this young developing player too soon, but he's likely ready for the big move.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

When blue chip prospects have "it", I don't think there is any longterm benefit to playing them in AAA a few months vs having them finish their development in the major leagues.  Chourio has been playing winter ball against grown men the past few offseasons in Venezuela.  He is ready for the show.

None of the other young brewer OFs should prevent Chourio from everyday mlb playing time just because they are a few years older.  They are also less talented ( and I think all three are good to really good everyday mlb OFs).

[kalle8]

That spray chart is one of the most impressive I've ever seen.