He'll Never Hit for Power, But Sal Frelick Has to Get Some Air Under the Ball

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a season that has seen mostly encouraging, pleasantly surprising performances from young Brewers hitters, one former top prospect has struggled. A more successful May points the way for him to establish himself more fully as the summer arrives.

Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

It was a nightmarish April for Sal Frelick. Early in spring training, he was one of the biggest stories of the Brewers' camp, and not just because of the juicy possibility of a position switch. After he demonstrated some impressive bat-to-ball skills (to complement great defense and good speed) in 2023, the hope was that he would take a big step forward and become a consistent top-of-the-order presence for the 2024 Crew. Pat Murphy wrote him in as the leadoff man in 19 of the first 35 games.

Frelick failed to consolidate his skill set, though, and floundered his way through March and April, with a .262/.343/.313 line. He hasn't been back to the leadoff spot over the last 24 contests. In fact, he's batted seventh 14 times, including 10 since May 14. He's no longer an everyday player; he's been on the bench the last six times the Brewers have faced a left-handed starting pitcher. Yet, thanks only partially to shielding from lefties, Frelick has emerged since May 1. He hit .269/.360/.397 in May, and though he's off to an 0-for-6 start in June, he's trending in the right direction. His strikeouts are down; his walks are up. The math whizzes in the room will notice an uptick in power, as (after hitting just three doubles and a triple in 111 plate appearances through the end of April) Frelick socked four doubles and two homers in 89 trips to the dish in May. 

Given all that, it might surprise you to know that Frelick's hard-hit rate (maligned in these pages more than once in recent months) has actually decreased since May 1. He's still one of the lightest-hitting batters in baseball, and in one reading of that statement, we might surmise that he's merely been lucky--that what little hope May evinced was a mirage, and that he really does need to continue being marginalized within the mix of Brewers lineup options.

Not so fast--literally. Because here's the thing: Frelick doesn't do better when he hits balls harder. He actually gets more of his hits when he focuses on squaring up the ball and getting a little air under it. Almost no one in baseball needs exit velocity less than Frelick does, and examining the fraternity of players who need it least reveals a lot about his profile. It even gives us a roadmap to the highly successful version of Frelick that has been missing for most of his fledgling MLB career.

Here's the leaderboard for the players with the smallest gap between the average exit velocity on their hits and that on their outs on balls in play, along with a few other numbers that merit our attention here.

Player	Team	Hit-Out EV Diff.	LowHit%	MedHit%	HighHit%	Weighted SS EV	Well Hit LA	Sweet Spot EV	ExitVel	LaunchAng	Hit95+%	LA10-30%	Barrel%	FBDst
Steven Kwan	CLE	-1.4	31.30%	37.50%	31.30%	92.6	9	86.8	82.8	10.3	19.50%	35.20%	10.20%	298
Bryson Stott	PHI	-0.7	28.60%	33.80%	37.00%	93.6	13.6	90.3	85.4	16	26.10%	33.30%	11.80%	307.4
Sal Frelick	MIL	0.9	45.40%	31.90%	22.70%	82.7	2.5	84.9	84.5	4.3	22.10%	26.20%	5.00%	282.5
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	TOR	1.2	36.10%	32.60%	29.90%	91.3	12.5	88.1	82.6	7	23.20%	34.50%	14.10%	289.2
Jurickson Profar	SD	1.3	31.80%	36.90%	31.30%	95.9	8.7	91.1	89.4	11.7	40.90%	35.80%	15.90%	329.4
Alex Verdugo	NYY	1.5	36.20%	34.00%	29.80%	93.5	11.6	91.9	88.2	9.1	37.80%	31.40%	18.10%	313.8
Amed Rosario	TB	1.8	43.40%	33.80%	22.80%	92.3	4.9	92.5	86.6	4.2	37.20%	31.00%	15.90%	307.5
José Caballero	TB	2	35.20%	32.80%	32.00%	85.9	14.9	84.2	80.7	10.7	24.80%	28.80%	11.20%	315
Jared Triolo	PIT	2.4	32.80%	36.60%	29.90%	93.6	6.4	88.9	87.6	8.6	37.60%	35.30%	18.80%	299.4
Cody Bellinger	CHC	2.4	23.40%	27.90%	48.70%	94	18.9	91.5	88.1	20.7	33.80%	31.80%	14.90%	301.2

Most of these are hitters you want to emulate; most of them are very good hitters. Just below the top 10, you'll be unsurprised to hear, sit José Altuve and Luis Arráez. This is a list of hitters who don't hit the ball that hard, period, but still find plenty of hits, even in the modern, power-centric game.

What separates Frelick from the rest of them? It's pretty simple, and easy to see. He hits too many ground balls. Specifically, he hits way too many balls downward, with launch angles under 2 degrees. (LowHit% is all batted balls under 2 degrees, as a percentage of the total. MedHit% is balls at 2-25 degrees. HighHit% is balls hit 25 degrees upward or higher. The league hits an equal number of balls in each of those bins, so being over 41% in LowHit% means hitting low ground balls at a very disproportionate rate.) 

Somewhat surprisingly, Frelick doesn't really have an exit velocity problem--not, anyway, if his goal is to be a player like Kwan, Stott, or Arráez, which is a great goal for him. He has a launch angle problem. He stands out as carrying a lower average launch angle than the rest of this group, and he stands out even more for the low launch angle on balls struck well. 

It's wildly counterintuitive to say that a player without power (and who isn't going to mutate into a power hitter, no matter what) needs to get under the ball better, but that's exactly the case for Frelick. You can be a successful hitter with his bat control and feel for the barrel, even without the ability to hit it hard. To do so, though, you have to hit line drives, not ground balls. That's where the hits live for players like this, and as Kwan and others prove, there are plenty of them to be found.

Let's take those numerical statements and render them for more visual learners. Frelick has a lousy average swing speed, and that hasn't changed throughout this season, even when he's been hot. However, he meets the ball squarely--that is, he gets a high percentage of the possible exit velocity allowed by his swing and the incoming pitch--at an above-average level, and has surged toward elite status when feeling good over the last month.

So, he specializes not in bat speed, but in hand-eye coordination. We knew that. Frelick himself knows that. Hitting the ball squarely (and thus, hitting line drives) should always be his focus. It's telling, though, that even his ability to meet it that way doesn't match up neatly with his getting hits. Here's a heat map showing the solidity of his contact (not exit velocity or launch angle, but the percentage of possible exit velocity created on that swing, meaning that he's hitting a bigger piece of the ball) based on pitch location.

Now, here's a heat map showing his batting average on balls in play by location.

We just said he needs to square up the ball to get hits, but the place where he struggles most to square up the ball is the place where he gets most of his hits. What gives? Ok, last picture.

It's pretty simple: Frelick hits everything out away from him downward, even though he hits it relatively hard. He gets hits on pitches inside because that's where he lifts the ball. He mishits it quite often in there, but it doesn't matter. Mishit line drives and low flies are better, for him, than hard-hit balls that go only downward after contact.

On balance, this is all good news. Again, Frelick is managing his strike zone better lately, and we can now see how he can get to a zone of success that matches that of the league's other great singles hitters--using that term as a compliment, rather than a gentle insult. Frelick has to make some further approach and swing adjustments, because he won't be able to cash in his skill set's potential until he learns to hit the ball upward. When he does, he won't hit 20 homers a year, or even 15. He will, however, start landing a lot of balls in the outfield grass, where Kwan and others Frelick should want to emulate are making their fortunes.

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[Trax]

Good breakdown.  I'm sure the two Brewer hitting coaches are working on this.  It may take time, don't want to force him focusing strictly on this and see his average plummet worse.  He may need some time at Triple A once we get healthier at the position.   

[Matt Breen]

Nice. Thank you.

[Kripes - Brewers]

I wonder what techniques they are trying? Do you start simple - take a half step forward in the box so you contact it at a slightly higher path as it comes in, deepen your crouch so you are already situated a bit lower, maybe try a slightly heavier bat? Trying to change your swing path angle seems a lot more difficult to do without hurting your contact rate.

[Sixtolezcano]

Very well written article! Conclusion makes a lot of sense. Thank you.