With The Tigers Increasingly Likely To Sell, What Is Starting Pitcher Jack Flaherty's Value?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cody Stavenhagen, The Athletic's Detroit Tigers beat writer, recent wrote a piece examining the possibility of Jack Flaherty being a trade candidate before the trade deadline.

With each passing day, it feels more likely the Tigers will sell (and it's being speculated they could consider moving cost-controlled assets like young starter Tarik Skubel). They're currently fourth in the American League Central division, 15 games behind the Cleveland Guardians. They're also 6.5 games out of third Wild Card spot, behind four other teams.

Flaherty has turned out to be a fantastic offseason pickup for Detroit. Signed to a one-year, $14 million deal, he has started 14 games this season, pitching to a 2.92 ERA with a 2.69 FIP. His groundball rate is the highest since his rookie season in 2017 and he's striking out 11.66 batters per nine innings.

The complicating factor for the Tigers is that Flaherty can be given a Qualifying Offer this offseason. Projected to be a little over $20 million in 2025, if Flaherty continues pitching as he has, the QO becomes a no-brainer for Detroit. That means the Tigers would have to be confident their trade return exceeds the value they will receive from a 35-ish overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.

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[Lloyd330]

If they are willing to Listen on Skubal, i would offer any prospect we have. We would have him this year and the next two for sure. 

[wallus]

21 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

If they are willing to Listen on Skubal, i would offer any prospect we have. We would have him this year and the next two for sure. 

Exactly. Skubal is a guy you trade Mis and ++ for.

[jay87shot]

Tigers won't trade Skubal, I live in Michigan and the fans would probably boycott if they sold off there best player(s) other than Flaherty.

The Angels got Edgar Quero for Lucas Giolito last year, my guess is that would be a fair value. Quero was a top 100 prospect in most publications. 

[Lloyd330]

18 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Tigers won't trade Skubal, I live in Michigan and the fans would probably boycott if they sold off there best player(s) other than Flaherty.

The Angels got Edgar Quero for Lucas Giolito last year, my guess is that would be a fair value. Quero was a top 100 prospect in most publications. 

Not really a good comparison -

Giolito had a 3.79 ERA with a 4.43 FIP with 117 ERA+ at the time of the trade

Flaherty has 2.92 ERA with a 2.70 FIP and a 143 ERA+

 

Flaherty will cost a bit more. 

 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/26/2024 at 9:30 AM, Lloyd330 said:

If they are willing to Listen on Skubal, i would offer any prospect we have. We would have him this year and the next two for sure. 

I'd REALLY hate to trade Misiorowski...you'd get a good idea of what the organization thinks. 

We're in a bit of a tough spot with Quero out for the year, Gasser, Chourio up, Turang, Ortiz are both firmly planted in the Bigs. 

They have a really good farm system, but will some of these guys be valued as we think they should?

Lara, Yophery, Pratt, Bitonti...

I'd be more inclined to part with the likes of Wilken, Black...maybe Frelick. But it'd have to be Misi or it'd have to probably be 4-5 players of their choice?

I don't know, he's dominant, so it'd be a trade I'd love, but I wouldn't want to make it. If Miz hits his ceiling, you've traded away one helluva pitcher that you'll have for ~7 years of team control. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Not really a good comparison -

Giolito had a 3.79 ERA with a 4.43 FIP with 117 ERA+ at the time of the trade

Flaherty has 2.92 ERA with a 2.70 FIP and a 143 ERA+

 

Flaherty will cost a bit more. 

 

Yeah...but consider this. The Angels are stupid. So...there's that.