At the Halfway Point, the Brewers Have Shortened the Season By a Week

[Matthew Trueblood]

Early this season, some fans worried that Brewers manager Pat Murphy was burning up his bullpen too much, and risking burning them out. That risk remains real, but 81 games into the 162-game marathon, Murphy and his team have bought themselves an entire week.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The regular-season schedule lasts 162 games, no matter what. Good teams have to be built and managed such that they have at least something left in the tank thereafter, to play on into October. However, the season isn't a race to 162 games; it's a race to the number of wins you'll need to reach the postseason. This year, the Brewers can very safely expect to claim either the NL Central title or the first Wild Card spot if they win at least 88 games, so their season is a race to 88.

After 81 games, they're a full week ahead of schedule. At 48-33, their current winning percentage would get them to 96 wins, so they could give back a few games from here and still comfortably reach the postseason. Their win total is 54.5% of the 88 wins they truly need, and 54.5% of 162 is 88, so they're seven games ahead of the pace on that front. A strong, balanced offense, a remarkably deep bullpen, and Murphy's management of each have the team in position to easily weather a dreadful week sometime in the heat of summer, or to put it in cruise control late in September and still claim a strong position for the postseason.

The risk in playing so hard to win to this point--in having Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig on pace to pitch 86 and 84 innings on the season, respectively, for instance, or in letting William Contreras and Willy Adames play every day at their highly demanding positions--is that injury or fatigue leaves a team unable to play like their best selves at the time of year to which fans attach the greatest importance. Brewers fans won't feel very good about the season if, after winning another division title, the team is unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs again. Again, though, winning so much in the first half means Murphy can use players more judiciously in the second.

Just as importantly, having firmly established themselves as favorites to win the Central, the Brewers can now count on some reinforcements by the end of next month. Counting Thursday, the Crew have eight days off between now and Jul. 31, including an overgrown five-day All-Star break. Of their 27 games over the next five weeks, they play the lowly Rockies, Marlins, Cubs, Pirates, and Nationals 19 times. They'll have a relatively low-intensity month of July, with ample chances to rest, and they should have at least an additional starting pitcher in their mix thereafter.

We've seen Brewers teams go on losing jags that really hurt their standing heading into All-Star breaks in the past. That could happen again. It also feels like the team is just one or two more injuries from really having the cumulative effects of so many hurt players land on their heads. Still, they're in excellent position.

They can tentatively expect Devin Williams back sometime before the end of July. They have depth both in the infield and in the outfield, and their farm system is far from fallow. Neither winning a division nor advancing in the postseason is ever easy, but the team has rarely been as well-positioned to do both. Murphy is to be commended for working his way out ahead of the pace, and the team deserves credit for a lot of big hits, big plays, and little things done well. They've earned the inside lane in the long pennant race.

View full article

[Team Canada]

27 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

they play the lowly Rockies, Marlins, Cubs, Pirates, and Nationals 19 times

The Pirates are not lowly, and arguably the Nationals aren't either. They're roughly .500 like the majority of the NL.

[Matthew Trueblood]

51 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

The Pirates are not lowly, and arguably the Nationals aren't either. They're roughly .500 like the majority of the NL.

Being "roughly .500" in the 2024 NL doesn't preclude being bad, which is what I mean by "lowly". The Pirates are 31-36 against all teams except the A's, White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies, who are barely big-league teams. The Nationals are 27-37 when you remove those four opponents. They're lowly.

[Team Canada]

10 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Being "roughly .500" in the 2024 NL doesn't preclude being bad, which is what I mean by "lowly". The Pirates are 31-36 against all teams except the A's, White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies, who are barely big-league teams. The Nationals are 27-37 when you remove those four opponents. They're lowly.

Well sure, let's just remove the games everyone plays against bad teams and get a new adjusted record. Of course they're going to have a worse record when you remove those wins. That's what makes them a better team than those teams. 2 games under .500 is definitionally mediocre. They're in the middle of the NL. They can't be lowly if they're in the middle. They may not be great, but it's a stretch in my mind to malign them as "lowly" when that implies there's no middle tier - just playoff teams and the "lowly" rest of the league.

Regardless, we can all agree no one expected to have a 6-7 game lead on the rest of the division at the break.