Joey Ortiz Needs to Be in the Top Half of the Brewers' Lineup

[Tim Muma]

It’s time to get away from narratives and “favorites” when it comes to the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup. It makes little sense to have a hitter with Joey Ortiz’s stats and approach relegated to the bottom third of the batting order.

Image courtesy of © Max Correa / The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

As always, with lineup construction discourse, many people think batting order doesn’t matter--that it's a pointless argument. I generally disagree, and believe there are mental and “skill diversity” aspects that have an impact. Thus, the Milwaukee Brewers need to give Joey Ortiz a serious run in the top half of the lineup, to stabilize the recently inconsistent offense and to see if his brand of tenacious competitiveness could make the difference in the postseason.

Whether looking at full-season stats or just the past month, Ortiz has better numbers than some who have had more opportunities in the top five slots in recent weeks. While power still fuels run-scoring, getting on base for better hitters and working a pitcher into deeper counts has great value. Many probably forget how good Ortiz was early in the season, before he suffered a neck injury that first hampered his performance, then landed him on the IL. Over his first 40 games, Ortiz slashed .293/.387/.538. He wasn't going to stay at that MVP level, but even with some struggles, he is still among the team's best hitters. His placement in the lineup doesn't reflect that.

Among active Brewers this season with at least 60 plate appearances, Ortiz ranks second in OBP (.341), trailing only William Contreras. He also sits fifth on the team in OPS (.739), ahead of Rhys Hoskins, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Brice Turang and Sal Frelick. That list alone should make you tilt your head in wonder, as to how Ortiz hasn’t found his way closer to the top of the order.

2-run double from Joey Ortiz gives the Brewers back the lead!

📺: FS1 pic.twitter.com/m2NmOt8KhK

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 22, 2024

Additionally, Ortiz shows the plate discipline teams should cherish near the front of the lineup. His 12.3% walk percentage (BB%) is second on the team, to playing time-limited Andruw Monasterio. Meanwhile, Ortiz’s 19.5% strikeout percentage (K%) is third-lowest on the Brewers, behind Turang and Frelick. From that perspective, if the argument is Ortiz versus Turang or Frelick, do you value more walks and more strikeouts or fewer of each? But one thing is certain: Mitchell’s 32.1 K% has no business in the top half of the lineup, as the Brewers have tried a few times in August.

Even turning your attention away from an on-base and plate discipline focus, Ortiz’s other stats outpace many. Among Milwaukee hitters, Ortiz is fifth in both wRC+ (108) and wOBA (.325), as well as sixth in SLG (.398) and extra-base hit percentage (7.8%). All of these numbers show Ortiz is likely the fourth-best hitter on the Brewers, following Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio and Contreras.

But let’s look at more recent production, too. Since Aug. 10, Milwaukee has averaged just four runs per game. That is 0.81 runs per game fewer than their season average, and would rank the Brewers 24th in MLB if they did it over the entire year. So, in the last 17 contests, Milwaukee has had its struggles to consistently put up runs, especially compared to what they have done for much of 2024.

Some of the issues stem from various hitters’ poor performances in August:



As you can see, though, while Ortiz’s production isn’t jumping off the page, his numbers are still better in most areas than others who have (or could) hit in front of him. The more concerning story might be Turang’s troubles–both recently, as seen above, and over the course of the season, wherein his .318 OBP ranks ninth on the Brewers and his .677 OPS sits 10th.

But back to Ortiz. His value as a hitter goes beyond the numbers. He does what it takes to help the team win games, whether fighting off an inside pitch to the right side to move over a runner; finding a way to hit a sac fly with two strikes; or coming up with a big hit late in the game. Ortiz is always willing to put forth a “team at-bat,” where he is determined to do a job. He is far more likely to execute a hit-and-run or deliver an RBI with a runner on third and less than two outs, particularly over guys like Mitchell, Bauers or Frelick. He's avoided double plays better than Turang or Jackson Chourio. He's driven in a higher percentage of the runners on base when he comes up than Adames or Rhys Hoskins.

In modern baseball, teams often overlook the importance of such strategic pieces. Yes, home runs are the key to winning in the playoffs, but baseball has been shifting the past couple of seasons, and it has room for players who are “gamers,” doing the dirty work and grinding out an October victory.

With his skill set and the makeup of what should be the other four hitters in the top half of the lineup, Ortiz would make an intriguing third hitter for the Brewers. He could hold down the leadoff spot, or manage to produce in other spots, but the three-hole likely allows him to utilize all of his tools of plate discipline, bat control, bunting and creating runs.

Should Murphy and company want to keep giving Turang a shot at leadoff against righties, it makes the lineup easy at the top:

1.  Turang
2. Chourio
3. Ortiz
4. Contreras
5. Adames

Against left-handed pitchers, Turang should be gone, and Gary Sánchez needs to get additional looks. Reader’s choice on the one-two slots, but the likeliest look is this:

1. Chourio
2. Contreras
3. Ortiz
4. Sánchez
5. Adames

I couldn’t care less about all the right-left matchup stuff, especially with your first five hitters, who should simply be your best options to score early and often. Of course, it seems like Murphy does care, but maybe continued performance trends will force him to abandon his commitment to alternating by handedness.

This all adds up to say that it is time to give Ortiz some opportunities higher in the lineup. How many chances can you give Tyler Black (now in Triple-A), Mitchell and Bauers before Ortiz gets a shot at proving he can be a more consistent, reliable, competitive hitter who pushes the offense up a level?

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[Brian]

I think moving them up when there getting on base is a good strategy, plus he has the speed which is also a great thing earlier in the order.  But you also mentioned he is good at moving runners around the bases which would be better in the middle or later part of the lineup. So for me its worth a try to see how he responds but I wouldn't be committed to if it doesn't pan out quickly with only 28 games left before the playoffs. Playoff time is not time for experiments, unless there is an injury to deal with. 

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

As usual, Brewer Fanatic makes a couple valid points. 

Turang (my favorite Brewer) is worn out..

His defense is still Gold Glove so he still needs to be on the field, although Monasterio should get more starts against lefties until the playoffs.  Bring Brice in for the late innings on those days.

Turang looks like he did when he slumped last year. 

The bat has slowed, his aggressive stance has turned defensive, resulting in pop flys and poor pitch recognition..Definitely should either  be 9 in the order or 2, if he is willing to switch to a lighter bat.

Ortiz is solid, although he's not a great base runner yet.

He has very good speed but not a great base stealer and doesn't have Turang's instincts on the basepaths.

I think the biggest missed opportunity lineup wise is Chourio..whose nickname should be Cheerio, his ever present joy in playing the game is a natural and genuine.

He's evolving into a high contact, power and speed guy.  A great #3 choice. He has the talent to go opposite field, go deep and just advances runners well.

With Contreras at #4 and Willy #5, Hoskins at #6, it gives us a great middle of the order. The highest I'd like to see Ortiz is #6 and maybe push Hoskins to 7..

I'd really like to see Mitchell lead off, despite his recent slump and Turang at 2, where his small ball skills get utilized better and makes the L/R matchups at the top less important.

Perkins or Frelick at 8 and Sanchez or Haase at 9 .

Batting orders are crucial, based on specific abilities, not raw numbers.. Sal is a great example. He would seem to be a logical leadoff candidate, but given the chance he has changed his approach and not succeeded at leadoff (yet, maybe next year).

Mitchell came back from injury and was getting on base and making good contact. With Turang slumping, Mitchell should have taken over leadoff.. I think his slump coincided with not getting the shot he worked for since spring training. It may be more mental than physical. He was always smiling and had an electric presence.  Since being passed over for leadoff, he seems almost sullen (although his defense is right there with Frelick and Perkins).

This team COULD give a solid run at the world series, Murphy has been great and is a strong candidate for manager of the year, so my second guessing lineups are just an opinion and logical from our knowledge as fans, but admittedly without the day to day knowledge of the clubhouse..

 

 

 

[Kripes - Brewers]

Love it! I'd put Ortiz in the #2 slot personally, and let Chourio and Contreras bat 3rd respectively in your scenarios, but I get your sentiment. I think Chourio and Contreras have the better odds of hitting that HR, so getting the OBP guys up there before they come up (not to mention the base stealing threat to get them in scoring position). That would seem to hedge the bets a bit more in my mind...

[Kripes - Brewers]

2 hours ago, Bratwithspecialsauce said:

I'd really like to see Mitchell lead off, despite his recent slump and Turang at 2, where his small ball skills get utilized better and makes the L/R matchups at the top less important.

No way do you put a 32% strikeout guy in the leadoff position. Leave that guy in the bottom third of the order and use him to either drive in any remaining baserunners or possibly get on base in front of the guys at the top of the order. Just my opinion. I hope he brings that down, but until that happens he can hang out with Frelick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think batting order matters *a lot* but it certainly matters, if only because you want your best hitters taking more plate appearances, particularly late in games.