Will a Top Brewers Prospect Pay a Heavy Price for the Team's 2024 Success?

[Harold Hutchison]

The Brewers are still rolling toward a National League Central title in 2024, something that has defied expectations. But could this success carry a long-term cost for one Brewer, down the road?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

 

Brewers fans have it very good. Twenty-five years ago, they seemed to be more likely to contend for the #1 overall pick than the playoffs, and the only thing cutting through the gloom of the short- and medium-term outlook was the farm system and the hope for the long term. Now, they're perennial playoff participants and a Midwest baseball powerhouse. The farm eventually produced franchise icons like Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Lorenzo Cain and others, who helped launch the Brewers into their current era of competitiveness, whether through their contributions on the field; the players they brought back in deals; or both.

While Brewers fans celebrate the team making a seemingly magical run, despite injuries to so many key contributors over the course of the season and the loss of their manager last fall, could the team pay the price over the long term, when it comes to one particular player?

Tyler’s Toolbox
Entering this season, when it came to hitting prospects, Tyler Black was second only to Jackson Chourio in the Brewers system. While Chourio’s toolset looks to be along the lines of the 2018-2019 MVP version of Christian Yelich, Black’s is more centered on bat-to-ball skills.

Although Black is not a big-time power hitter like Brock Wilken, Luke Adams, or Eric Bitonti, he is a potent offensive threat in other ways. He has superb OBP skills, drawing seven walks in 49 MLB at-bats and adding another 51 in 399 at-bats with Triple-A Nashville. He’s also very good at hitting for average, posting a .279 between 2023 and 2024 at Triple-A. He’s not punchless, as 26 doubles and 16 home runs in 477 at-bats in Music City would attest, though those figures aren't especially impressive by Triple-A standards. He also brings speed, with nine triples and 25 steals.

Their 2024 seasons, though, went very differently. Chourio has been in Milwaukee since Opening Day, and the team let him adjust over the course of April and May – particularly in figuring how to kill certain pitches instead of taking a walk back to the dugout. It was a decision with an eye toward optimizing his development over the long haul, given that the team signed Chourio to a record-breaking eight-year deal.

Black, though, never really got the opportunity Chourio did to adjust to MLB pitching. He went into the offseason as a candidate to man third base, and maybe see some action. In November, first base appeared off the table when the Brewers acquired Jake Bauers, but he still seemed like an option at third. Then, the Crew traded Corbin Burnes for a return that included Joey Ortiz shortly before spring training, and signed Gary Sánchez as the primary DH in late February. That's not to mention Rhys Hoskins, who took up the position for which the team seems to have discerned that Black is best suited: first base.

Black suddenly became a player without a clear road to MLB. The result was three trips on the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle, and in none of them did he receive sustained playing time or the chance to really adjust to MLB pitching, much less find a groove.

So, in one sense, his .561 OPS over a small sample has not been a surprise. He's only had three short stints, none lasting longer that 12 days, and the playing time was inconsistent. The good news is that, despite that, his walk rate held up, and he showed he could be a threat on the basepaths.

The Future Questions
Where could Black play? Third base could be an option for 2025, especially if Willy Adames ends up walking as a free agent and Ortiz moves to short, but the Crew would probably have to give Black time to shake off the rust; he’s mostly played first base and the outfield. Chourio will likely handle one of the corner outfield spots, but Black has experience in both center field and left field. Regardless of where he plays, the Brewers need to discard the desire for Black to be a power hitter, and instead let him get his MLB plate appearances and make his adjustments.

It isn't discussed as much as, perhaps, it should be, but there's an opportunity cost involved even in winning seasons. Young players like Black can't be given time to work through ugly slumps or prove their ability to adjust and improve at the highest level as readily, because the top priority is to keep winning games. The Brewers haven't been able to simply give Black 10 days to show his value to the lineup, without interruption.

Now, with a 10-game lead in the NL Central, the Crew has plenty of flexibility to do just that over the last five weeks of the regular season. Add an off-season conditioning program like the one Brice Turang undertook between 2023 and 2024, and the Brewers might just have solved the need for another proficient bat, without needing to make a trade.

 

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[WAN2]

His most recent AAA showing doesn't bode well.  

[rolafaive]

Not to worry Ortiz will be the shortstop in 2025, the Brewers are not going to shell out 150 Million to Adames, unless they bring in a veteran 3rd baseman that would be Black's position to lose in 2025.

[Kripes - Brewers]

It should kinda hinge on what Hoskins does. Adames is gone regardless. I don't think Black can play 3rd base yet, certainly not as well as Ortiz. A lot will happen between now and opening day, but let's get that ring first...😉

[tmwiese55]

I'd think he looks like an easy replacement for Bauers roster spot next year. Saves them a few million and while not exactly every day ABs there will be plenty of opportunity. Bauers should end up around 300 ABs for the year.  If you show promise in that role they can trust you as the full time regular the following year once Hoskins is gone.

I'm guessing they've given up on him at 2b/3b especially with how much they value D, but he has to keep working on OF to give them a bit of extra flexibility.   One wrench in this is what will happen with Yelich's defense plan next year and if he's full time DH.