Did The Brewers Make An Unforced Roster Management Error In The Rule 5 Draft?

[Harold Hutchison]

While the Brewers acquired an intriguing lefty from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft, they also lost a very promising pitcher to the White Sox that same day.

Image courtesy of © Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK

Shane Smith made his mark since signing as an undrafted free agent in 2021. He broke out in 2023, becoming Brewer Fanatic’s Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year that season, then was fourth in the voting for Brewer Fanatic’s Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2024. With honors like that, it’s quite surprising that he was available for the Rule 5 draft, where the White Sox made him the first overall pick. The Brewers received $100,000 for Smith, who must remain on the White Sox roster for the 2025 season or be offered back for $50,000.

Here’s what is a little concerning: The Brewers went into the Rule 5 draft with three open spots on the 40-man roster. They didn’t have to lose Smith; if anything, they could have come out of the Rule 5 draft with Smith alongside Connor Thomas and still have had a 40-man spot to offer Grant Wolfram.

The good news of this pick, if losing a talented pitcher who was a surefire steal, is that the Brewers still have a lot of depth that they can leave Smith unprotected and not worry about him being picked up by MLB’s basketcase. The Nashville rotation has Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Jacob Misiorowski, Carlos Rodriguez, and Evan McKendry as likely returning pitchers, with Jon Duplantier, Coleman Crow, Nate Peterson, and Brett Wichrowski among the contenders.

So, the loss of Smith via the Rule 5 draft doesn’t kill the Brewers in the short term. But it does hurt the team. Smith certainly could have replaced Elvis Peguero or Joel Payamps on the 26-man, offering more capability to go multiple innings than either of those two.

The Brewers are considering creative approaches to using DL Hall and Aaron Ashby to maximize their performance. With a pitch count limit of 60 to 70, the Brewers will probably want multiple multi-inning relievers in the back end of their bullpen to bridge the gap to the top end instead of relievers like Payamps and Peguero.

In other words, the Brewers didn’t need a cheap replacement for Bryse Wilson, who they allowed to walk in free agency; in their bullpen, they needed multiple pitchers like Wilson to join him (or replace him if they still wanted to let Wilson walk) to “piggyback” with Hall and Ashby. Shane Smith was looking very much like he was exactly the kind of pitcher to fill that role.

The other factor is much more related to the bottom line, which the Brewers must consider down the road. The collapse of the Bally regional sports networks will make it harder to develop and keep high-performing Milwaukee players in the long term. They can’t lose prospects like Smith for less than $100,000 via the Rule 5 draft, particularly when they had an open spot to protect them.

Does one back-end, multi-inning reliever break a franchise? No, but the Brewers will need to put a lot more thought into their 40-man, including taking a long look at minor deals that can set the franchise up for longer-term success and free up spots on the 40-man for prospects like Shane Smith.

Unforced errors in roster management will cost the Brewers at the margins. Given the harsh hot-stove economic realities the Brewers face, they can’t afford these errors to become common.

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[brewmann04]

I guess we see if the FO did make a mistake 

[Sugarrayray]

I was very dismayed to lose Smith.

[GasserFace]

I’m not sure this was a mistake.  We don’t have all the information. I will give the front office a lot of leeway on this. 
 

this could be the ‘Walker McKinven’ effect. The ChiSox are noted laggards with pitching metrics and Walker has seen Smith develop and probably compared him to other options in their system and convinced their FO to make this move. Stuff happens.  Good teams can’t keep everyone and I’m sure there is another option just around the corner 

[sveumrules]

17 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Here’s what is a little concerning: The Brewers went into the Rule 5 draft with three open spots on the 40-man roster.

They had open spots heading into the Rule 5, but they were all spoken for with Thomas, Wolfram, Cortes, and Durbin all lined up.

I would have preferred to keep Smith, he’s pitched well and is a great dev story, but the reality is (not even counting established SP like Peralta, Civale, Tobias and Woody) he’s behind nine RHP on the 40 man - Henderson, Megill, Payamps, Peguero, Mears, Bukauskas, Uribe, Patrick, and Rodriguez plus guys like Misio, Yoho, Hunt and Wichrowski that aren’t on the 40 man yet.

I’d classify it as more of a calculated risk than any kind of unforced error, especially considering Smith hasn’t thrown a pitch for CHI yet and could still end up back in the org depending how things go.