REPORT: Josh Knoth Undergoes Tommy John Surgery, Out for 2025 Season

[Jamie Cameron]

One of the Brewers' top pitching prospects will miss the entire 2025 season, after undergoing Tommy John surgery. How was the young righty's first full professional season? How does this news impact his future in the organization? 

Image courtesy of © Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Josh Knoth will miss the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported on Saturday.

Knoth, a 19-year-old right-handed pitcher, was a cold-weather prep arm and pop-up prospect in the 2023 MLB Draft, wherein the Brewers selected him 33rd overall in Compensation Round A, signing him to a $2-million, underslot bonus.

Knoth, out of New York, was an appealing arm to model-reliant teams in a loaded prep class. He was just 17 on draft day, one of the youngest pitchers taken after a spring season in which his stock shot up. He saw a velocity spike that added to already-good stuff, and his performance ticked up accordingly. Knoth notched a 19-strikeout perfect game to become one of the buzziest prospects on the board.

Then undersized at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Knoth stood out in pre-draft reports for his ability to spin the baseball. Scouts and data emphasized a fastball that sat 93-95 mph with solid shape, in addition to a pair of breaking balls routinely generating 3,000+ rpm of spin. Knoth’s changeup notably lagged behind his two breaking balls as a fringy pitch, but he received positive reviews for improved control leading up to the draft.

Knoth debuted for Carolina in his age-18 season, and like many prep arms, he had ups and downs. A fairly unexciting 4.48 ERA was enhanced by better under-the-hood numbers. Knoth’s 3.57 xFIP and 26.6% strikeout rate were reasons for optimism over a 21-start, 81-inning debut season. Knoth didn’t show a great feel for the strike zone, and his 11.1% walk rate defied those optimistic takes on his control. Still, command questions aside, Knoth was at least par for the level, if not better in his first professional season.

So where does this injury news leave him, with a less clear path forward? Certainly. Knoth’s profile was imbued with some reliever risk due to his undersized frame. Add in patchy control in his first professional season and a missed year due to injury, and it’s easy to travel down a rabbit hole of concern. Still, time is on his side. His comeback in 2026 will be important in ensuring he remains on track as a starter who could help the Brewers, but he'll throw competitive pitches again before he turns 21. That's reassuring, at a difficult moment like this.

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[CheezWizHed]

Very unfortunate for him, but he is still very young, and TJ surgery has become very pedestrian as far as injuries go.  

[wiguy94]

58 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Very unfortunate for him, but he is still very young, and TJ surgery has become very pedestrian as far as injuries go.  

The concern is far less about being able to recover from surgery and far more about losing 12+ months of developmental time. That's a big developmental blow. 

[Sugarrayray]

He was already young for his league. He’ll be pitching A+ for his age 20 season now, even if he starts at rookie ball or single A to began his rehab. He will have plenty of time on his side to develop. 
 

At this point TJ is almost like a right of passage these young pitchers have to get out of their way. 

[CheezWizHed]

18 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

The concern is far less about being able to recover from surgery and far more about losing 12+ months of developmental time. That's a big developmental blow. 

Of course it is.  But as I pointed out, he is very young.  Even after TJ, he will come back to A+ ball as a 20-year-old.  

[MudcatsfaninBrunsCO]

Bummer to hear that he will be out for 2025! He seemed fine in November at the Warbirds announcement, Wonder what happened! Prayers for a great recovory!

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Of course it is.  But as I pointed out, he is very young.  Even after TJ, he will come back to A+ ball as a 20-year-old.  

He’s young yes but he’s Rule 5 eligible after the 2027 season. He’s thrown 84 professional innings and will likely be on a pitch/inning limit in 2026 and might even miss some of the season depending on his recovery time. So while Knoth will still be young he’s on a timeline that doesn’t change because of an injury.

These injury issues lead to scenarios where you’re protecting guys like Logan Henderson or Bradley Blalock from the Rule 5 draft when they aren’t close to being built up enough to be a full time starter. Also with Henderson you could argue the lack of reps is part of the reason he’s never been able to develop a legitimate third pitch.  

[Joseph Zarr]

I know this news deserves a dedicated article given how much hope we (and the Brewers) have invested in this young man's career arc but, for some reason, it is somehow passé for writers on this site to cross-reference the forums these news items pertains to. I know the individuals who bring us this news are too humble to interject but I will continue attempting to bring broader exposure to the Fan Forums when it is appropriate. Heck, we even deleted @Austin Tatiouspersonal thread a couple days ex post facto because we were discussing this in the 'Transactions' thread 😅.

So, fwiw, this news has been discussed in our Minor League Transactions forum since this past Saturday - @ARobsBrewCrewactually was the first person on the internets (that I am aware of) to break this news. If anyone wants to take a peak there, feel free. HERE is the original post.