5 Tasty, Bold Predictions for the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers

[Tim Muma]

With the Milwaukee Brewers 2025 season practically upon us, we all need to lock in to prepare for the marathon. But first, it's critical for writers and fans to pretend they "know ball," by predicting what will happen across the next six months. Let's do it!

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

This version of the Milwaukee Brewers might be one of the most challenging to project, as it feels like many players have wide variability in how they could perform. The key to making "bold predictions," at least in my view, is that they shouldn't be so off-the-rails crazy that they have a one percent chance of happening, meaning there is zero risk and all reward. For example, saying Aaron Civale will win the 2025 Cy Young Award is not bold; it's a throwaway statement that makes you a "genius" if it happens, but something no one will care about if it doesn't happen. They'll never take it seriously to begin with. At least give the fans some hope a bold prediction could come true.

With that in mind, my five bold Brewers predictions certainly have low odds—or are perceived that way by fans—but have realistic reasoning as to why they could hit. Just make sure you bookmark this article so you can call me an idiot or a savant based on these five special thoughts.

Trevor Megill Collects 40 Saves
Despite having great bullpens and closers in their history, the Brewers have only had three pitchers reach the 40-save milestone in a season:

• John Axford's 46 saves in 2011
• Francisco Rodriguez's 44 saves in 2014
• Francisco Cordero's 44 saves in 2007

If you're like me, it was a bit shocking to realize so few hurlers saved 40 games. Josh Hader topped out at 37 (2019), while Corey Knebel (2017), Derrick Turnbow (2005) and Dan Kolb (2004) all finished with 39 saves in their career-best seasons.

Megill saved 21 games in 2024 as Devin Williams closed out another 14 victories, meaning Megill could have easily had 35. Overall, the Brewers' bullpen finished last season with 53 saves, the second-most in team history. There were plenty of opportunities, and Milwaukee will likely play a great many close games this year, too. Plus, compared to Hader and Williams, Megill seems like the type of guy (mentally and physically) who will want the ball every night if the save situation arises.

The Brewers Hit More Home Runs in 2025 Than They Did in 2024
So much of the offseason narrative about the Brewers has centered around their supposed lack of power—especially how they will replace Willy Adames's 32 homers. Though the front office didn't bring in a slugger to fill that hole, the Crew's power depth might actually serve them better this season when you think about the multiple players who could increase the Brewers' total internally.

Milwaukee's 177 home runs last season tied them for 20th in franchise history. It's a fine number, but not among the very best. That leaves space for the 2025 lineup to surpass the 2024 total with incremental improvements across the board. A handful of players have realistic home run addition potential this season for various reasons if they can increase their homers from 2024 -> 2025:

• Christian Yelich (injury, games played): 11  →  18
• Rhys Hoskins (two years post-surgery): 26  →  32
• Jackson Chourio (youth, talent): 21  →  27
• William Contreras (peak season): 23  →  28
• Garrett Mitchell (health, playing time): 8  →  12
• Sal Frelick (Italian food): 2  →  6

Add those up, and the six players above would match Adames's output. Some of these guys could take off to even greater heights than noted. Plus, you have players like Joey Ortiz and Oliver Dunn who, with full seasons, are likely to increase their home run totals from the 11 and 2 they had, respectively. Here's to the Brewers shooting for 180 long balls in 2025.

Joey Ortiz is a Better Player Than Willy Adames
Adames was a true fan favorite in Milwaukee, both for his production and his personality. It's tough to see a clubhouse leader go, especially one who kept the team loose, mentored younger athletes and gave the club a steady power bat and (usually) glove at a premier position. Yet, the Brewers made the best move for the team by letting Adames leave via free agency, given his age, contract length and salary demands.

That paves the way for Ortiz to become the stalwart shortstop in Milwaukee for the next half-decade. He won't blast 30 homers like Adames, and his clubhouse presence will likely fall short, but there are multiple ways to be a valuable baseball player. Ortiz will prove to be more valuable than Adames overall in 2025 by putting up a higher FanGraphs WAR (fWAR). It will start with Ortiz's phenomenal defense, but be supplemented by quality baserunning and better offense than you probably expect.

Adames's fielding declined significantly in 2024, clearly visible with the eye test and defensive metrics. He still posted 4.8 fWAR, the best of his career, fueled largely by his career-best 32 homers and 21 stolen bases (his previous high was eight steals). Adames got the classic "contract year boost," especially in his commitment to swiping bags. Ortiz's 3.1 fWAR was largely created by his defense; his production at the plate nose-dived following a midseason neck injury.

Three factors will push Ortiz past Adames in 2025:

• Adames's defense will continue to be below-average, and his offense will be muted in San Francisco's challenging park.
• With health, Ortiz's power and speed numbers will increase, and his overall offense will not dip in the second half.
• Ortiz's defensive value will increase by playing shortstop for a full season versus primarily playing third base.

The Brewers are a Top Five MLB Team in Doubles
It might be a challenge for the Brewers to increase their home run output and find their way into the top five in doubles. More homers often mean fewer doubles, but that is team-dependent and might include some luck. The main reason for doubt is the Brewers have not finished in the top five in doubles in baseball since 2014, and haven't been better than ninth since 2015. Still, there is reason for optimism.

If Milwaukee mostly uses the projected lineup that begins with Chourio, Yelich and Contreras, that is a trio of high-level hitters who would get 1,800 plate appearances to do damage. Contreras has averaged 37.5 doubles the past two years, while Yelich had 34 two-baggers in 2023 (his last full season) and Chourio finished with 29 in his rookie year. That would give the Brewers 100 doubles from those three, with added potential throughout the lineup.

Ortiz profiles more as a doubles hitter than a home run threat. He had 35 and 30 doubles in the minor leagues in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Last season with the Crew, despite a brutal second half (.362 slugging) due in part to injury, he hit 25 two-baggers.

Meanwhile, the speedsters Mitchell, Frelick and Brice Turang add another year of maturity and strength that can open up the door to more extra-base hits. If they stay healthy and productive to get a full season's worth of plate appearances, 25-30 doubles for each is feasible. Will it be enough? The Brewers would likely need a couple of guys to go off in the doubles department (we're talking mid-40s) to reach the top five in the league. Sometimes youth and aggressiveness surprise you.

Jared Koenig is the Most Valuable Brewers Reliever by fWAR
With an organization full of talented relief pitchers, it can be easy to overlook certain players. Koenig will be that arm in 2025 when he accumulates the most fWAR among Brewers relief pitchers and half the fan base still doesn't know who he is.

It's been typical in most Brewers seasons that the leader in saves also owns the best fWAR in the bullpen. It makes sense. They're often pitching in the most high-leverage situations and they have great talent. That's how they earned the closer's role. But there are seasons where a multi-inning, versatile out-getter is pegged for key spots before the ninth frame, and he just keeps getting the job done.

Megill, the Brewers' saves leader in 2024, had the relief corps's best fWAR at 1.0. Following him were five relievers within 0.3 fWAR of that.

• Williams (0.8)
• Hoby Milner (0.8)
• Aaron Ashby (0.8)
• Joel Payamps (0.7)
• Koenig (0.7)

Considering Koenig came out of nowhere to play a strong role in the bullpen, 2025 could be the next step in his development. He posted a 2.73 ERA as a reliever last year—and a 2.47 overall, with six starts as an opener. There's nothing wrong with that, but if he wants to leap to the top of the relief pitcher fWAR in Milwaukee, he'll need to improve on his 22.7 K% and 9.1 BB%.

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What do you think? Too bold or not bold enough? Actually, I had one more prediction which many say is also quite bold. After much consideration and an initial thought in a different direction, I am picking the Brewers to win the NL Central for a third straight season. Like last year, my instincts figured the Chicago Cubs looked more the part, but as Opening Day 2024 got closer, I officially went with Milwaukee. The same thing is happening this year; the rest of the division must prove they are smarter or better than the Brewers. Heck, if even a few of my five bold predictions come true, they would almost have to win the division title.

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[Michael Trzinski]

Laughing at all the seemingly 'off the wall' predictions, but in reality, any or all of them could happen. In your defense, I tried to come up with one bold prediction and couldn't. Kudos to Muma!! 

[jay87shot]

I love the Sal home run prediction 2 to 6 Italian food. NIOCE

I am all in on the Joey Ortiz as a better player than Adames. Joey had a 2.7 WAR last year hitting .239/.329/.398, I really think he ends up being a .280 hitter in his prime. Say .260/.350/.425 this year. It might take another year but I think Ortiz will have the reliability of JJ Hardy with a lot less streaking in the bat.

[Brian]

I hope everyone just remembers, Murphy makes Brewers history, wins NL Manager of the Year 2024. 

Murphy ranked first on 27 of the 30 ballots cast, and was second on the other three. 

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

Some good thought went into these predictions.. It depends on team health, but all of these points are achievable.

I think Ortiz being of more value on the field is the most likely. 

Adames was on a contract year mission and pretty confident his numbers will drop across the board in SF. He stole some empty, late inning bases to pad his stats, but his clutch hitting and willingness to talke walks  were the best of his career. His defense suffered, as both he and Contreras tried to play every game too deep into the season and tired down the stretch.  Hopefully Ortiz is healthy again, because I think we will at least match last years team HR totals overall..

Starting pitching health will determine our success.. If Woody can rebound adequately and isn't overused, I'm pretty sure we'll battle and may win the Central again.