It Didn't Pay Dividends Tuesday, but Chad Patrick's Velocity and Slider Usage are Rising

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

As recently as spring training, Chad Patrick was a good cutter, in search of the rest of a starting pitcher's profile. That pitch is his signature weapon, but to emerge as the solid, long-term starter he wants to be for the Brewers, Patrick needed much more. Bit by bit, as this season has unfolded, he's demonstrated that his other offerings play against the best hitters in the world. Tuesday night marked the latest milestone in his progression, even as he took the loss.

Patrick's four-seam fastball (95.1 miles per hour) and sinker (94.8) were each up more than 1 mph, relative to their season averages. He's been trending in this direction, anyway, so while the adrenaline of the Brewers playing in front of a big crowd against their archrivals might have given him a boost, this is (increasingly) who Patrick really is.

That extra speed gives him a bit of extra margin for error, in terms of movement or location. Patrick's fastballs are below-average pitches, according to stuff models, but more heat lets them play slightly better. The changeup is still his most important complement to the cutter, but the four- and two-seamers play important roles, too. Throwing them harder can only be good for him.

Arguably, though, an upward velocity trend isn't the most important thing we saw Patrick do Tuesday. The biggest missing ingredient from Patrick's arsenal, for much of the time he's spent in the majors so far, has been something that moves more to his glove side than his cutter does. The four-seamer, the sinker and the changeup all move more to the arm side, so hitters had an easy way to tell the cutter from the rest of his arsenal. Lately, though, he's getting more comfortable with his slider and (very occasionally) sweeper, which could be a separator even as the fifth (and sixth) pitch(es) in his repertoire.

Patrick threw nine sliders Tuesday night, He earned a strikeout and two outs on balls in play with it, without surrendering a hit. He showed the ability to throw it for strikes, getting two called ones in addition to a whiff, a foul ball and those two weakly hit outs. This isn't going to be Patrick's new out pitch, but it can be better than many pitchers' fourth offering, and it's his fifth. Playing off the cutter, it has a special utility, and can even magnify the value of his arm-side offerings.

The Cubs got to Patrick, and showed him that there's still work to do. With heaters touching 96 mph and a slider to round out his pitch mix, though, he's finding the road map to a more sustainable form of success as a starter.

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[MattK]

Thanks Matthew!  Just a shame Pat let him face the top of that order the 3rd time last night.  He may be working toward handling that, as you are saying, with different pitch usage, but he really needs that working first to handle a tougher O lineup such as the Cubs.

[Team Canada]

40 minutes ago, MattK said:

Just a shame Pat let him face the top of that order the 3rd time last night

The MLB.com recap article hit on this (via Murphy's postgame comments) - IIRC he was at 57 pitches through 4. There's just no scenario where you're going to pull your starter the 3rd time through the order in the 5th inning under 60 pitches. You just can't.