Prospect Rankings Philosophy

[jay87shot]

I thought this could be an interesting discussion. Where each of you prospect fans are on your own philosophies on how you evaluate prospects? Things like potential vs. result/mlb readiness, long term results vs short term results, gauging injury factors, 1 big loud tool vs. solid tools across the board.

Here are some cases studies that maybe can guide some discussion

Potential vs. MLB readiness

Robert Gasser (BF #7 prospect) vs. Braylon Payne (BF #8 prospect)

When next season begins Gasser will be nearly 27, where as Payne will be 19. Gasser is a good bet to be a quality 4/5 starter but likely not much more than a solid 3. Where as Payne has at least 3 more years to the bigs and could easily flame out or turn into at 30/30 perennial all-star. There are some injury notes in this one as well with Gasser's history.

Long-Term Results vs Short Term

Carlos Rodriguez (unranked) vs. Tyson Hardin (BF #17)

These 2 are like a week apart in age but have pretty drastictly different paths.

CarRod had a 3.86 era mostly in AAA with 84 innings 86k/38 BB   Career 3.56 era 449.2 innings 502k/192bb (20 mlb innings, 7.65 era)

Hardin had a 2.72 era in A+/AA in 96 innings 96 k/17 bb only 3 innings last year.

Hardin may throw a bit harder and his slider is probably better than any of CarRod secondary pitches. However CarRod had a very similar season to Hardin 2 years ago in AA, that being said Hardin is almost unanimously a higher ranked prospects. Thoughts?

1 Big Tool vs round skillset

Eric Bitonti (BF #16) vs Josh A (BF# 13)

Bitonti is a half year younger but has true 65 or better graded power. Josh A maybe isn't the greatest example of solid across the board but I think of him as have solid tools across the board with a 60 or so grade on hit tool. Maybe for this picture a Josh A who hit like .290 this year instead of .320.

Injury Factors

Josh Knoth for example moved done most lists from like 15 to 30ish, however alot of people didn't move Robert Gasser down there prospect ranks earlier in the year. The are a lot of factors that can go into this so kind of chosing 2 similar case studies is hard. I would imagine a case like Knoth vs. Gasser would also include a bunch of the other prospect philosophies mentioned above. This probably would have some sub categories like seriousness of injury, injury history, and a bunch more.

The Eye Test

I don't get to watch alot of minor league games but see a lot of highlights and post from you fine fanatics. What are some things that you look for when you see a player in person and are impressed.

 

[igor67]

Not a direct answer, but at this point for the Brewers I tend to not put as much weight on closeness to MLB as I used too. It is still a factor, but now that our player development is so much better those tools and ceiling are going to rate a little better for me.

[Ro Mueller]

I seem to emphasize nearness to MLB (e.g. Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Carlos Rodriguez, Craig Yoho, Chad Patrick, Caleb Durbin early in 2025) and youth (e.g. Manuel Rodriguez, Ethan Dorchies, Josh Knoth before injury) more than others.

On injuries, I'll largely hold a player steady (e.g. Gasser, Quero, Knoth) until a new setback (e.g. Quero's "bolts" in his shoulder, Josh Adamczewski's Yelichesque down time in 2024 and 2025).

[snoogans8056]

I’m just sitting here biding my time until these 100 teenage arms have velo upticks and the publications all wonder where this pitching came from.

Still doesn’t seem like anyone outside of this message board sees the potential that is hidden off our top 30 lists.

Fun fact: Over the last 3 drafts, we have 15% of all high school pitchers that have signed. Only 5 teams have signed more than 5 total over that time frame, we have 17.

 

[jay87shot]

I personally like upside is my rankings until a player turns around 22, then it kind of becomes a feel game. So someone like Luke Adams is still going to get judged as a what is the ceiling where as Brock Wilken is going to be judged a lot harder because he is over 2 years older. I will say over the past couple years I have changed looking for more athletic well rounded players over big skills (especially power based prospects) because those players are working for the big league club. On the pitching side I really try and look at stuff over command again until a prospect is around 22/23 or so. So for now I am likely a bit higher on guys like Manny Rodriguez or Melvin Hernandez because I think that both have some chance to get to the mid 90's. I do drop players when injured but try and reinstate previous rankings when they get healthy.

[SF70]

16 hours ago, snoogans8056 said:

I’m just sitting here biding my time until these 100 teenage arms have velo upticks and the publications all wonder where this pitching came from.

Still doesn’t seem like anyone outside of this message board sees the potential that is hidden off our top 30 lists.

Fun fact: Over the last 3 drafts, we have 15% of all high school pitchers that have signed. Only 5 teams have signed more than 5 total over that time frame, we have 17.

 

The Brewers have stacked a mind-numbing amount of pitching talent in their last 3 drafts and have 3 upside pitching prospects that should be 100% recovered from TJ and good to go for the ‘26 season (Woodward-Knoth-Galindez).

With the controlled SP the team has in MKE & the upper minors, this organization will be bursting with pitching talent from AA thru the ACL, and to the point they are going to be able to trade-off arms for BL talent upgrades.

I count 8 BL starters, all but Peralta, controlled for 4-6 years. Peralta-Priester-Miz-Gasser-Patrick-Myers-Ashby-Hall. Then 4 more depth starters in the uppers, Crow-Kuehner-Hunt-Hardin, and that’s with Wichrowski converted back to reliever, so 11-12 deep, not including any offseason additions.

When we see the pitching breakouts the next couple of years this team’s farm system is going to really seperate itself from the rest of the baseball world. Incredible time to be a Brewers fan.

[Lathund]

It's hard to put general rules for me, as there are always going to be plenty of exceptions. But some common general trends at least; Age relative to level is a big indicator. So it's not closeness to MLB per se, but more like getting to AAA at like 21 or younger says a lot. So someone like Turang for instance. For hitters, I also like to see a good hit tool and pitch recognition. Power can come with time; it often doesn't but it can. And mediocre raw power can turn into good game power. But big time power hitters with holes in their swings finding their hit tool is rarer. 

I also know a fairly common criticism on here is how up until the last couple of drafts, Brewers drafted seemingly only up the middle players, and not really any sluggers. Personally I was always a big fan of that approach, and while there are things I absolutely like with guys like Wilken, Fischer, Bitonti, Burke, I am wary of those kinds of picks early on. So I like the C/SS/CF approach for a few reasons. One is that the best athletes tend to go there; someone who has moved to the bottom of the defensive spectrum already as a teenager (or 20/21) doesn't tend to be a good athlete, and is a DH in waiting. That puts a much higher demand on their bat. Which isn't a problem if they hit their 80th percentile or better, but otherwise very much is. It also creates developmental challenges if you have too many of them. Fewer potential lineup spots creates fewer opportunities for them or someone else. At the ML level, the biggest step, it also creates another hurdle. You can carry a Brice Turang for a while waiting to see if his discerning eye and bat to ball skills will develop into a good hitter. It's harder to carry a Keston Hiura or Jordan Walker, who won't provide anything while they find their way.  Better athlete doesn't automatically mean better baseball player, but there *is* a correlation.  

But the real reason is that the allround/up the middle by definition offer a much higher ceiling. And a higher floor. In order to rate them really highly though, I still look for one or more standout tools. 

This was all about hitters, because I just struggle far more to make sense of pitchers. So many developmental leaps, or flameouts, that I never saw coming. Obviously the better the raw stuff, the higher the potential. But that's too generic to really make sense. But some things I like are, again, athletic pitchers. Whethers it's for injury reasons, or ability to adapt. I like to look at when the arsenal matches the pitcher; as in when someone with a low release point and big extenstion already is showing signs of mastering their high 4-seamer, or a tall  over-the-top release pitcher with a great sinker etc. But more generally I like to look at the fastball(s). Not necessarily velo, just having some kind of with traits that makes it effective. Having that, and adding/improving the offspeed/breaking stuff just seems much more reliable than having even the nastiest secondaries but a fastball scares noone.