Brewers Trade Proposal: Joe Ryan or Reid Detmers Could Cost Milwaukee Logan Henderson

[Klantz27]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

So basically, you think Henderson has the potential... to be a Paul Skenes, Chase Bruns, Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sanchez, Cam Schlitter, Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease type pitcher(actually, better than the majority of them... PLUS Kade Anderson and Seth Hernandez(just touching on the two young arms that are elite pitching prospects).

 

I guess you believe he's a future Tarik Skubal. Can you articulate why? What about him would you say is similar to a 2X Cy Young pitcher and a top 5 pitcher in Baseball? 

He's a smaller guy for a starter, so he's not likely to add velocity... and that's not a killer for him because he does get good run. 
He has a nice change. 

But it takes more than that or you just have a poor man's Peralta who... wasn't close to the things you've suggested Henderson will be. 


I would also like to take a moment to apologize on the off chance if this is Mrs. Henderson as I'm sure it can be hard to see your Son's name being thrown about in trade discussions. I doubt that's the case, I've just not yet see someone basically say, 'no, can't trade Henderson for Skubal because he's going to be as good as Skubal has been the last 5 years over the NEXT 5 years.'

I mean, you can just say, 'The team control we have over Henderson isn't worth a rental,' and that's a viable argument.

Henderson is going to be basically prime Lincecum is a less compelling argument. 

Skubal 2.83 era 2.85 fip .931 whip 

Henderson 3.05 era 2.97fip .939 whip

I never brought up skubal anyway BTW lol

Poor mans peralta lol freddy put up .1 war in his first 3 seasons whats henderson at 2.1 total in 63 innings  lol not even a comparison to the start of there careers 

U right he might not make it top 5 might of jumped the gun a little but surely he has the potential to put up freddys stat line from last year 5.5 war 180 ip thats good for what top 10 pitcher freddy was what 4th in cy young last year 

 

[Klantz27]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So basically, you think Henderson has the potential... to be a Paul Skenes, Chase Bruns, Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sanchez, Cam Schlitter, Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease type pitcher(actually, better than the majority of them... PLUS Kade Anderson and Seth Hernandez(just touching on the two young arms that are elite pitching prospects).

 

I guess you believe he's a future Tarik Skubal. Can you articulate why? What about him would you say is similar to a 2X Cy Young pitcher and a top 5 pitcher in Baseball? 

He's a smaller guy for a starter, so he's not likely to add velocity... and that's not a killer for him because he does get good run. 
He has a nice change. 

But it takes more than that or you just have a poor man's Peralta who... wasn't close to the things you've suggested Henderson will be. 


I would also like to take a moment to apologize on the off chance if this is Mrs. Henderson as I'm sure it can be hard to see your Son's name being thrown about in trade discussions. I doubt that's the case, I've just not yet see someone basically say, 'no, can't trade Henderson for Skubal because he's going to be as good as Skubal has been the last 5 years over the NEXT 5 years.'

I mean, you can just say, 'The team control we have over Henderson isn't worth a rental,' and that's a viable argument.

Henderson is going to be basically prime Lincecum is a less compelling argument. 

Also the thing with skubal he wont be a cc sabathia for us 

Skubal is on a pitch count by daddy boras he wont be pitching on short rest in the playoffs if we need him skubal is chasing 400 mil 

Besides that bum sabatoged his own teams season knowing he had elbow injury in the offseason he refused to bring it up because he didnt want to make less money in arbitration is that a guy you want on your team skubal dont care about anything besides getting that contract ill take henderson and all his control anyday 

[rickh150]

Ryan has a mutual option for 2027, correct? He's basically a FA after 2026.  

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Ryan has a mutual option for 2027, correct? He's basically a FA after 2026.  

Yes he has a mutual option but if that option is declined he still has another year of arb.

[Jake McKibbin]

 

It seems teams have been asking about the Brewers young controllable arms in trade discussions. I don't know if this adds validity, as we don't know the brewers response to those requests but I think there's been some valid points here. A couple of things:

- Henderson has a strong fastball shape wise, but needs to have his command on point. This could be said for a lot of pitchers, but I don't think he could survive well if the velocity dropped at any point (injury, etc)

- It's a great combination of outlier vertical approach angle and induced vertical break for his arm angle. That being said, pitchers do adapt, especially to fastball trends. VAA fastballs, like Freddy Peralta's, have been hit harder year on year as hitter's get more and more used to seeing them around the league. That adaptation is one of the key differences between 2021/22 Peralta and 2026 Peralta (note Peralta surged after spider tack was banned in 2021)

- There's zero wiggle room if either the changeup or fastball aren't coming out of the hand quite right on a given day. It's why we so rarely see two-pitch pitchers dominate for long. Even take Spencer Strider, who's struggled despite regaining his former fastball velocity. He throws a lot harder than Henderson too.

Just some food for thought that, to use the stock market advice, past performance is no indication of future returns. 

All of that being said, this is toeing the line value wise. If Henderson headlined a deal, it should be the majority of the value in that deal, with no other high end pieces included. Or perhaps even expand the deal to include a controllable reliever as well.

Joe Ryan is entering his most expensive few years, and typically the Brewers would be trading an arm like that in the 2026/27 offseason, not acquiring one a few months before. He also has less developmental improvement than there perhaps is with a Reid Detmers who's just beginning to tap into his upside. I think Robert Murray said on the Microbrew podcast this week that sources believe he could be a top 5-10 pitcher in baseball with the Brewers. That's more than I thought, but it is an intriguing possibility. That upside is what you'd eb trading for, but it is a gamble vs what you have in Henderson

Finally, Henderson's largest innings total in a season is 81 1/3, and he's consistently been healthy to pitch around that 80 inning mark. Will he wear down and tire as he passes that mark? As mentioned, he can't afford to lose the command or life on the fastball without running into problems, and with a history of elbow inflammation, that doesn't perhaps reassure me. 

Just food for thought in the whole debate!

 

 

 

[wiguy94]

7 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

It's a great combination of outlier vertical approach angle and induced vertical break for his arm angle. That being said, pitchers do adapt, especially to fastball trends. VAA fastballs, like Freddy Peralta's, have been hit harder year on year as hitter's get more and more used to seeing them around the league. That adaptation is one of the key differences between 2021/22 Peralta and 2026 Peralta (note Peralta surged after spider tack was banned in 2021)

I think this is ignoring that Freddy’s FB consistently was getting worse the more and more he reduced his extension. Freddy had a great VAA because he got so much extension down the mound so he was releasing the ball from a much lower slot than you’d expect for a guy his size/arm angle. Freddy’s extension is down almost an entire foot this year compared to its peak.

[wiguy94]

7 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Finally, Henderson's largest innings total in a season is 81 1/3,

This is wrong. He threw 103 innings last season.

[Jake McKibbin]

45 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This is wrong. He threw 103 innings last season.

Huh, baseball reference has done me dirty on that front. Delightful!

The minors do naturally restrict innings, no one's going to throw 160+ in the shortened lower level seasons, but I  think he's had an injury issue in most seasons?

47 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think this is ignoring that Freddy’s FB consistently was getting worse the more and more he reduced his extension. Freddy had a great VAA because he got so much extension down the mound so he was releasing the ball from a much lower slot than you’d expect for a guy his size/arm angle. Freddy’s extension is down almost an entire foot this year compared to its peak.

I remember seeing a chart somewhere on this about how VAA based fastballs were becoming less effective as more and more pitchers coming through has that lower arm angle. I think the average VAA on four seamers has decreased season on season too, so it's not just Peralta but you're absolutely right that the extension is a huge part of it as well 

[wiguy94]

14 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Huh, baseball reference has done me dirty on that front. Delightful!

The minors do naturally restrict innings, no one's going to throw 160+ in the shortened lower level seasons, but I  think he's had an injury issue in most seasons?

I remember seeing a chart somewhere on this about how VAA based fastballs were becoming less effective as more and more pitchers coming through has that lower arm angle. I think the average VAA on four seamers has decreased season on season too, so it's not just Peralta but you're absolutely right that the extension is a huge part of it as well 

Putting it simply with Peralta the four years his FB performed best by both xwOBA and RV/100 were the four years his release height was under 5.10ft from 2020 to 2023. When the release height increased in 2024 his fastball lost a ton of its effectiveness. 

[Outlander]

Can't imagine this organization trading Logan Henderson for a rental. It might be what it takes but won't be the Brewers.