Brewers (May) vs Orioles (Povich?): 9/18/26, 6:05pm

[adambr2]

2 minutes ago, BCF said:

Because May could completely suck the last few starts and turn it around in October. Same as Harrison 

Just like Mis could dominate regular season and have a couple blow ups during the postseason. It’s baseball. Things happen 

If May went 8 innings and 0 runs today he could literally get shelled in the playoffs. Start tonight doesn’t mean anything. Some days you wake up and have your good stuff, sometimes you don’t. Sometimes you get lucky and have everything hit at someone, sometimes you’re not lucky 

Just chill and enjoy the best team in baseball and not care what happens in October yet when anything can happen 

Harrison quite possibly isn't even going to make the playoff roster.

Sorry, your premise is that recent performances aren’t at all correlated with playoff performance, and I just don’t agree with that at all. If that was the case, there’d be no reason for concern on Harrison.

[BCF]

26 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Harrison quite possibly isn't even going to make the playoff roster.

Sorry, your premise is that recent performances aren’t at all correlated with playoff performance, and I just don’t agree with that at all. If that was the case, there’d be no reason for concern on Harrison.

I don’t think recent performances means they are gonna suck in October 

If the Brewers scored 40 runs in 3 games against the Cardinals would you have no concern with the offense anymore because they just destroyed offensively? Or would it be meaningless because they would have to face the top pitching staffs in the game? 

[Branyanisthegoat]

Dont feel great about May in the playoffs, but stuff metrics still like his , and OOPSY still likes him. The universe Milwaukee wins it all this year probably has good May showing up for 3 series, so I say keep rolling him out there in October and hope for the best.

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, Branyanisthegoat said:

Dont feel great about May in the playoffs, but stuff metrics still like his , and OOPSY still likes him. The universe Milwaukee wins it all this year probably has good May showing up for 3 series, so I say keep rolling him out there in October and hope for the best.

It's hard for me to trust the stuff metrics when he's sitting on a 23% K-rate on the year with average-ish contact suppression. If the stuff is so good why is it not translating into either more strikeouts or better contact suppression?

One of my slight worries when we traded for him was how much of his success FIP wise was on the back of his HR suppression at Busch. He gave up 0.13 HR/9 at Busch as a Cardinal and 1.31 on the road as a Cardinal. Busch by statcast park factors is hardest park to hit HR at in MLB. As a Brewer he's sitting at 1.42 HR/9 which is pretty close to his road number as a Cardinal. 

You're probably right that they are going to have to just keep rolling him out there with a super short leash in October but as a fan, I don't know how you can feel good about him on the mound based on what he's done this year. Outside of Busch Stadium he's rocking an ERA around 6.00

[baseball101]

5 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Anderson. Hall can be an elite reliever. When was this? 

Hall is honestly an elite reliever now. You don’t agree?

[baseball101]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Great to get the win, but I think we’ve found out in the last 24+ hours that we can trust neither Harrison nor May in the playoffs and that is rough news. 

It’s the playoffs. I will take the Miz and Henderson over any other team. Third, fourth pitcher is not that different team to team.  

[RobertCrawley]

10 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

It’s the playoffs. I will take the Miz and Henderson over any other team. Third, fourth pitcher is not that different team to team.  

I’m curious where Patrick is now physically and mentally in the starting role. 

[Branyanisthegoat]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

but as a fan, I don't know how you can feel good about him on the mound based on what he's done this year. Outside of Busch Stadium he's rocking an ERA around 6.00

Yeah, as a fan I'll be even more nervous when hes on the mound, just seems like the right move regardless.

[wiguy94]

30 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

I’m curious where Patrick is now physically and mentally in the starting role. 

Even if he could handle it mentally, I don't think there's enough time to stretch him out by the NLDS. It's two weeks away. He hasn't gone more than 7 outs since July 3rd and his highest pitch count since the start of July is 47. 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Branyanisthegoat said:

Yeah, as a fan I'll be even more nervous when hes on the mound, just seems like the right move regardless.

Yeah feel like it's pretty much going to be May and Gasser in games 3 and 4 with the shortest leashes imaginable. As soon as they show signs of struggle then pen will get warming whether it's the 2nd inning or the 4th inning.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

6 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah feel like it's pretty much going to be May and Gasser in games 3 and 4 with the shortest leashes imaginable. As soon as they show signs of struggle then pen will get warming whether it's the 2nd inning or the 4th inning.

Gasser, I am good with.  He dealt with adversity earlier in the season and has been pitching very well as of late.

In my view, he’s sort of the anti-Sproat.  He doesn’t have the same physical ability, but is much sharper from a mentality perspective.

I’m not sure what value me could bring to this roster other than maybe a pop-up guy if you’re losing 10 to one.  Van can easily feel that role for us.

i just don’t see Senzetela, May, or Harrison having value for us in the postseason.  I’m ok with Hamilton so long as it can be guaranteed that he’s only a PR and emergency defensive sub.

 

 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Simply put, Stallings is more valuable and has earned it more than me and Senzetela.

[jw5511986]

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Typically 2-3 MPH higher

Genuinely don't know this, on average, are pitchers today generally only 2-3 MPH faster than pitchers in the 80s/90s?

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, jw5511986 said:

Genuinely don't know this, on average, are pitchers today generally only 2-3 MPH faster than pitchers in the 80s/90s?

2008 was the start of the pitch tracking era where we have accurate pitch level data. The average FB velo in 2008 was 91.9mph. The average FB velo in 2026 is 94.8mph so up nearly 3mph in just the last 18 years. Anything before that we can't say for certain.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfGT=R|&hfSea=2026|2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|2014|2013|2012|2011|2010|2009|2008|&player_type=pitcher&group_by=league-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_velocity=on#results

[jw5511986]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

2008 was the start of the pitch tracking era where we have accurate pitch level data. The average FB velo in 2008 was 91.9mph. The average FB velo in 2026 is 94.8mph so up nearly 3mph in just the last 18 years. Anything before that we can't say for certain.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfGT=R|&hfSea=2026|2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|2014|2013|2012|2011|2010|2009|2008|&player_type=pitcher&group_by=league-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_velocity=on#results

So we would say, it's certainly possible, though not certain, that velos are faster than they were, gun inflation notwithstanding. 

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, jw5511986 said:

So we would say, it's certainly possible, though not certain, that velos are faster than they were, gun inflation notwithstanding. 

Yes undoubtedly or at least the average velo. 

[Underachiever]

It seems that someone could do a frame-by-frame comparison of how long it took a Mike Caldwell fastball to get to home plate and compare it frame-by-frame to a Logan Henderson version. I would love to know the difference in eras. 
 

or perhaps it’s been done and I’ve just never seen the results 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Underachiever said:

It seems that someone could do a frame-by-frame comparison of how long it took a Mike Caldwell fastball to get to home plate and compare it frame-by-frame to a Logan Henderson version. I would love to know the difference in eras. 
 

or perhaps it’s been done and I’ve just never seen the results 

Because of frame rates being so low back when Caldwell pitched, you would need to time a lot of his pitches to have a good feel for the actual velo. Tangotiger talked about this a couple weeks ago because someone was trying to compare a side by side of an older pitcher with a current pitcher.

[adambr2]

10 hours ago, BCF said:

I don’t think recent performances means they are gonna suck in October 

If the Brewers scored 40 runs in 3 games against the Cardinals would you have no concern with the offense anymore because they just destroyed offensively? Or would it be meaningless because they would have to face the top pitching staffs in the game? 

Apples to oranges, offensive performance in totality of 9 guys is one thing, I’m talking about May individually.

He has a 5.40 ERA and 4.71 FIP since being acquired. That is bad, any way you look at it. Could he pitch well in the playoffs? Sure, but of course you feel a lot less confident about it happening because he’s pitched poorly versus if he had pitched well in the second half.