Rule 5 Thread -- Crabbe to Padres (Major League); Bo Hall to Yankees (Minors)

[Jim Goulart]

Once again this year, we're able to let you know specifically who is available within the Brewers' organization for selection in either the Major League or Minor League Phase of the Rule 5 draft, which is December 6th.

If the Brewers sign minor league free agents in the interim, we believe their placement would be necessary as well.

The following players would need to be kept on a major league roster for all of 2008 if selected:

RHP Steve Bray
RHP Dane De La Rosa
RHP Mark DiFelice
RHP Dave Johnson
RHP Mike Jones
RHP Franklin Nunez
RHP Marino Salas
RHP E.J. Shanks
RHP Ben Stanczyk
RHP Josh Wahpepah

LHP Jeff Housman
LHP Rafael Lluberes
LHP Sam Narron

C Carlos Corporan
C Nestor Corredor
C / OF Anderson De La Rosa

SS Ozzie Chavez
2B Callix Crabbe
3B Adam Heether
IF Guilder Rodriguez
IF Steve Sollmann

OF Charlie Fermaint
OF Steve Moss
OF Mel Stocker

Callix Crabbe could be intriguing to some, his work in the outfield in 2007 added to his versatility, but we've still yet to see him on the left side of the infield, so that's not attractive in terms of a Rule 5 pick.

Relief guys are always prime suspects for selection in Rule 5, so Steve Bray's name will come up again. Marino Salas could entice, as perhaps Mark DiFelice, for those clubs who saw him pitch last year and have huge openings in the back of their rotation. But both Salas and DiFelice resigned minor league deals with the Brewers -- if their agents thought there might be 40-man roster spots waiting elsewhere, they may not have re-upped.

Did Dave Johnson showcase himself enough in the AFL to warrant a mention? Perhaps, his AA numbers were OK, but don't scream Rule 5, either.

So it's quite possible that for the umpteenth year in a row, the Brewers will have managed their 40-man roster appropriately, and will have no one selected. During the 90's, you could make the case there just wasn't enough quality in the system, but you can't make that case in recent years. The Brewers have protected wisely in this decade.

I looked at last year's thread, and Brewerfan reader mls4 (where have you been lately, my alumni news buddy) let us know that RHP Ramon Garcia was the last Brewer taken in the Major League Rule 5, after the 1996 season.

The Brewers have selected and lost players in the Minor League phase of Rule 5 in recent years. This basically allows an organization to pick any player not protected for the Major League phase. It's a way to obtain organizational soldiers, and in some cases, allow a veteran farmhand to get a fresh start with a new club. The Brewers have seen names like Josh Alliston, John Vanden Berg, Pete Zoccolillo, Todd West, Johnny Raburn and several others plucked away in recent years. A very young SS, Agustin Septimo, was lost to the Marlins two years ago to our chagrin -- he had a nice 2006 season at low-A, but really struggled in the Florida State League in '07.

The Brewers got one of their recent Minor League Rule 5 picks to the big leagues -- an otherwise forgettable RHP David Manning (two forgettable starts in the 2003 season). And you know who else was a Brewer minor league Rule 5 pick -- none other than Steve Bray.

These farmhands are eligible to be plucked in the Minor League Phase of Rule 5:

RHP Bo Hall
LHP Rusty Tucker

C Brian Munhall

OF Freddy Parejo

[dadofandrew]

As I said when the promotions were announced, Fermaint and Salas are the only two I feel could be selected, and neither fits the mold.

[igor67]

The right kind of GM might take a flyer on Heether

[And That]

I'm most worried about losing Dave Johnson. He seems to be blossoming into a legit relief prospect, and is good enough to pitch in AAA next year.

[DHonks]

I could see the Crew losing Ben Stanczyk, who has never been appreciated, but has generally thrived in any role. Shanks, Wahpepah, Narron, and Heether could all be taken as well.

[Minigoon]

For the ML portion, I see Bray, Salas, Johnson, and Narron as possiblities to be drafted and make a ML roster out of spring training.

 

On the minor league side, Bo Hall seems like a good candidate to be picked.

[colbyjack]

I agree with Toby, Johnson is the closest thing to being a Rule 5 target. I would be moderately surprised to see anyone picked.

[dadofandrew]

Johnson has decent K numbers, but it's tough to keep a kid who had a near 5 ERA in AA in the bigs all next year. I can't believe there aren't a dozen pitchers with higher ceilings, and that's usually what teams look for. I s'pose Bray could be picked by a team not going anywhere, looking at him as cheap middle relief.

[And That]

Al, you're missing the bigger picture with Johnson. I don't even think he'll be taken, but he's a solid middle relief prospect. If I were running another team's Rule 5 draft, I'd seriously look at Dave Johnson. His relative lack of success is not withstanding - he did very well in the AFL and has a very good arm. I would not be surprised to see him up to Milwaukee by June or July. So is he that much of a stretch for a team needing bullpen relief? No.

[Postseason2006]

Anyone from other teams worth noting?

[colbyjack]

Look past the numbers. Johnson is a candidate because he has two very good big-league pitches: A solid fastball and a very good slider. I've compared him to Chad Fox in the past, and while his numbers haven't been very good in the minors, he is coming off of a fairly good season and as Toby noted a very good showing in the AFL.

 

One good slider could sell a team enough to try and carry a player like Johnson in their bullpen.

 

But again, I agree with Toby that no one is likely to be selected, and even if Johnson does get plucked, the chances that we'll miss him are slim.

[sheetskout]

No one thinks Stocker will go?

[mls4]

Been busy, Jim, but thanks for the mention...

 

Anyone from other teams worth noting?

Last year's top Rule 5 pick, is again available, Ryan Goleski- but he didn't do anything impressive last year in AA.

 

Jamie D'Antona is a 3b in the D-backs system- had 2 straight years of OPS over .860 in AA and AAA. Seems like a chance some team would take.

 

Wesley Wright is a LH reliever in the Dodgers system with some good numbers at AA though he didn't fare well at AAA. Lefties always seem like a commodity at Rule 5 time.

 

Dusty Hughes, with the Royals, is another lefty, had a good year at AA and was the AZ Fall League pitcher of the year.

 

Reliever Roman Colon has major league experience and is a possible bullpen arm. I don't know his injury status but a team could stash him on the DL for a while.

 

Worth noting, if a team wants an infield option to pinch-running Mel Stocker, they could go with 2B Eric Young Jr. Only reached High A but a good OBP with 160 steals the past 2 seasons.

 

I wonder if a team would take a chance on Neil Walker, Pirates 1st rounder in 2004, catcher-turned-3b. Numbers aren't that good, and not ready yet, but thought he was still considered a good prospect.

 

I'm sure there's more but that's what I have.

[yoshii8]

Is Neil Walker really available? I've heard numerous reports that he is the Pirates 3b of the future. How was he as a defensive catcher?

[twobrewers]

Baseball American has Neil Walker as the #2 rated prospect in the Pirates Organization.

[mls4]

Walker is not listed on the Pirates 40-man roster, he's listed on their AAA Indianapolis roster, he signed in June 2004 so this is his 4th Rule 5 draft. I could be missing something though, let me know.

[agent39]

Walker is definatley not available and this is only his 4th rule 5 draft.

[mls4]

From the Brewerfan.net FAQ:

How does the "Rule 5 Draft" work?

A player is eligible for the offseason Rule 5 draft if he is not on the 40-man Major League Roster if he was 18 or younger when he first signed a pro contract and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft since he signed or if he was 19 or older when he first signed a pro contract and this is the third Rule 5 draft since he signed.

[colbyjack]

Walker definitely is not eligible, otherwise the Pirates would have protected him without blinking. The FAQ may not have been updated, since I believe the Rule 5 rules changes last offseason (or was it the year before?).

 

BA offers up some appealing names today:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/265252.html

[mls4]

Well then don't pay any attention to anything I said. I knew there were new rules, but figured the FAQ was gold. Anyone want to update me?

[Hammer]

I'm really surprised that Marwin Vega isn't listed more prominently. He has really looked good the couple of times that I saw him in Appleton. If he only has "three average pitches" I am not a believable scout! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif To me, he has really looked good.

[colbyjack]

mls4, check out the BA link above. It contains the info on the changes from last year's new CBA. I didn't read the entire link when I posted it before, just glancing over the names.

[mls4]

Ok so they just added another year before a player is eligible. Thanks.

[Big Reed]

I realize this is a little off the subject, but didn't feel it worth a separate thread.

 

I read in a different post that as of today the brewers were at their max on the 40 man roster barring a trade. Has Melvin said anything about being a player in this year's major league portion of the rule 5 draft? this year's crop doesn't look as great as some of the past. but in the past, the brewers have usually been at 39 players for the rule 5 draft and have taken a couple of players and also drafted and traded a player. in the past the rule 5 draft was also at the start of the winter meetings and that has also changed. Do the brewers plan to participate in the major league portion this year?

[dadofandrew]

Anderson and Rivera could be dropped with nary a ripple. I do not see the Crew as being active Rule 5 participants, as it's tough to hide a guy on a contender.