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    Are the Brewers Blowing It with Tyler Black?


    Harold Hutchison

    The roaming lefty bat has yet to find a real home or get a prolonged shot with the Brewers. Is that an error on the part of the organization?

    Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

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    Tyler Black has been a solid prospect for the Brewers since being selected with the Crew’s Competitive Balance A pick in 2021, the same year the Brewers drafted Gold Glove outfielder Sal Frelick. However, even though there are few questions left about Black’s bat, he hasn't established himself in Milwaukee as Frelick has. Could the Brewers be blowing it with another top prospect?

    The Toolset
    Let’s look at the tools first. Black is a pure hitter. His lowest full-season average in professional baseball was .258 in Triple-A Nashville, where he was on the shuttle to Milwaukee a couple of times in 2024. He features superb OBP skills, drawing 220 walks in 1,155 at-bats throughout the minors, and adding seven more in 49 at-bats at the MLB level.

    His bat shows some pop, too, with 114 of his 314 hits in the minors going for extra bases. He can wreak havoc on the basepaths, stealing 93 bases in 116 attempts in the minors, and adding three more in the majors. It’s an offensive skillset that doesn’t hurt the team anywhere on the field. Even at first base or designated hitter, Black has the potential to be productive (albeit unconventionally, for those positions).

    Black’s bat might yet develope into a dynamic threat. His power totals in 2023 (25 doubles, 12 triples, and 18 homers between Biloxi and Nashville), his last full season in the minor leagues, were higher than those of Frelick (28, 6, and 11) and Turang (24, 2, and 13) in 2022 (their last full minor-league season), and he was more of a threat on the basepaths, posting 55 steals—compared to 34 for Turang and 24 for Frelick in their last full minor-league season. Admittedly, Black was older than they were at the same levels, and he took a step backward from them in 2024, but that production carries promise.

    Delayed By Injuries And Lack Of A Home
    Black’s earlier professional career was marred by injuries—most notably in 2022, when he missed significant time both with the High-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers and with the Arizona Fall League’s Glendale Desert Dogs. But he broke out in 2023 as the regular third baseman for the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, earning a late-season promotion to Nashville.

    Arguably, he had earned the inside track to be Milwaukee’s third baseman, but the acquisitions of Joey Ortiz and Oliver Dunn (combined with concern about his defense) resulted in a return to Nashville. Black mostly played first base with the Sounds, but saw action in left field, center field, and at third base in 2024. Earlier in his professional career, he also played second base.

    At third base in Triple-A Nashville, he’s posted a .945 fielding percentage, with a career fielding percentage of .931 at the hot corner between Nashville, Biloxi, and the Timber Rattlers. His career fielding percentage at second base is .948. Errors and fielding percentage are not the truest measures of infield defense, of course, but there's at least some evidence that Black can feel his way to proficiency at one of those two spots. Unfortunately for Black, that evidence hasn't yet convinced anyone in the Brewers front office, or on the coaching staff.

    The Brewers Roster Situation
    Black has demonstrated some positional versatility in his career, but he primarily handled first base and DH in 2024. In 2025, those are positions where he is likely to be blocked by Rhys Hoskins, Christian Yelich, and (more than a handful of times, when he's not catching but the team still wants his bat in the lineup) William Contreras. Black could spell any of them in turns, but has to prove that he can hit big-league pitching and/or acquit himself with the glove at the cold corner. He is also facing competition at the position from non-roster invitees Jake Bauers and Ernesto Martinez Jr.

    Additionally, the Brewers’ outfield is already crowded, with Frelick, Chourio, Yelich, and Garrett Mitchell as the top four players, and the rehabbing Blake Perkins hoping to be back in the mix by May. If Black is seeing time in the outfield, the Brewers may be in a world of hurt injury-wise, with Perkins already out after he fouled a ball off his shin.

    Ortiz ended up handling most of the duties at the hot corner for the Brewers in 2024, after Oliver Dunn slumped and was injured. He is the favorite to replace Willy Adames at short in 2025, where his glove is likely to be very solid and will pair well with Platinum Glove Award recipient Brice Turang up the middle.

    Current And Minor-League Hot Corner Options
    On the 40-man roster, the Brewer have some options at third base. Caleb Durbin, acquired in the Devin Williams trade, provides speed, some pop, and excellent OBP skills. Andrew Monasterio held down the job in the second half of 2023 and was solid. Dunn is a left-handed power bat, although one with a big hole in his swing. Vinny Capra is a natural shortstop who could slide over to the hot corner based on a hot start to spring training.

    In the minors, the Brewers have prospect Brock Wilken, who struggled at Double-A Biloxi; Mike Boeve, a pure hitter in the mold of Jeff Cirillo who hit well in Biloxi; and Cooper Pratt, a shortstop who could slide over to the hot corner, who split time between Low-A Carolina and High-A Wisconsin in 2024.

    How To Use Tyler Black?
    Black would likely be an upgrade over Brice Turang in the leadoff spot, if Pat Murphy and company were to give him a shot at making the adjustments to MLB pitching and umpires. Of course, there's some evidence that Turang has already been displaced from the leadoff spot, but Black could be this year's version of the "stretch" leadoff man Murphy recently described. The best approach would be to have him start three games a week at third, while having a start a week at first base and another at DH to keep Hoskins and Yelich rested. Black could also spell some of the Brewers outfielders by picking up a game in left field each week. Murphy told reporters Sunday that Black will get at least some reps at third base during Cactus League play, so the door to that plan is open for now.

    At the moment, whether he's earned one or not, Black does not have an easy path to a major role with the Brewers. It's more likely that he'll begin the season in Nashville, trying again to prove to the team that he can handle one of his not-quite-homes on defense. If the team doesn't at least clear a road to some kind of meaningful audition, though, they might live to regret it.

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    6 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

    Who was the last top prospect that disappointed for Milwaukee? Not necessarily top draft pick but universally recognized high prospect?

    Interesting question. Going back to MLB top 30 prospects and looking at the top 5-10, they haven't "blown" many prospects as several who were very high either became MLB starters at one point (T. Taylor, Arcia, Hader, Frelick, Mitchell etc), were ranked high but were way too far off (H. Perez among others) or were traded for quality players (Brinson, Harrison, I. Diaz, B. Phillips, T. Grisham). The last group of top prospects who failed to live up to the expectations was the 2019/2020 trio of Hiura, Ray and Lutz, and pitcher Small. 

    12 minutes ago, biedergb said:

    The last group of top prospects who failed to live up to the expectations was the 2019/2020 trio of Hiura, Ray and Lutz, and pitcher Small. 

    Agreed. Those three did not pan out. Not sure if Brewers mismanaged all three or not. I am on #teamhiura for giving him longer leash to hit against RHP.

    I don't think anyone is blowing anything.

    Black is defensively limited (at least by the Brewers high and successful standards) and his bat fell off big time at AAA last year.

    2022-23 (841 PAs) 
    283/413/483 (142 wRC+)
    15.8 BB% | 17.1 K%

    2024 (462 PAs)
    258/374/429 (114 wRC+)
    13.2 BB% | 18.8 K%

    Old friend Keston Hiura has a 135 wRC+ in AAA the last two years and all he has to show for it are 27 PAs in MLB with a 148/148/148 triple slash.

    I'd still like to see him in the Bauers role from last year if he is healthy enough, but if he does go back to AAA he's going to need a performance uptick to push the envelope on earning playing time.

     

    • Like 4

    If the Brewers "blew it" it was by the organization not moving Black away from the infield earlier. He was never that great of a hitting prospect. His 2021 season in A as a 20 year old was not that great.  His 2022 as a 21 year old in A+ was better but he was really a man among boys so his wRC+ of 137 with only an ISO of .143 was more of "still a prospect" than we have a new top guy.

    it wasn't until 2023 when he hit AAA that he looked like he might have something.  He was at an age that lined up with his level and had an iso above .200 in both AA and AAA.  His walk rates and K rates were also very good.  But he fell off and his lack of a defensive home is a serious problem. Fangrpahs full scouting reprot from last year goes into it:

    Black is entertaining as hell to watch play baseball, but I am skeptical that he's going to be the foundational young player that some folks across baseball think he'll be. He’s fast, he has a keen eye, he plays with lots of effort, and he swings hard for a small-ish guy. He slashed .284/.417/.513 across Double- and Triple-A in 2023 and raised his career minor league line ton excellent .279/.415/.465. For the last couple of years, Black (and my forecast for him) has been fumbling around for a defensive home. He has largely played second base during the last half decade and gave center field a try in 2022, but moved to third base in 2023 and even began to get some reps at first. He actually looked pretty good at third base aside from his throwing stroke, which sometimes looks odd and lacks accuracy. It's a big enough issue that I have him projected to first base and will speculate he'll eventually play the outfield corner, as well. Black's 2023 power output was likely a caricature of his true ability. His game is grounded in his contact and (more significantly) on-base skills. He lacks the power typical of a corner infielder and I also have some reservations about his ability to carry above-average contact rates to the big leagues. Black needs a ton of effort to swing hard and his head often flies all over the place. His swing also has a hole in it (up and away) that will be probed by big league fastballs until he proves he can close it. So no, I don't have Black evaluated as an everyday player. Because he's backed into a fair bit of defensive versatility, runs well, and has a plus-plus skill in his plate discipline, he'll still have roster utility as corner role player of modest impact

    He was given a 40+ grade which is what he appears as right now.  I still think he should be tried as a 1B/OF platoon bat until he shows he can or can not handle it.  It's not like he would be blocking other superior options. As said above, give him the Bauers role until he takes off or loses it.

    I trust the system more than the player in this situation.   The Brewers are more than talented enough at developing players to leave this topic to them and see it play out. 

    He is platoon player because of how people see him defensively.  So he won't be that  guy everyone thought he would when he finished his 1st season in AAA as rookie of the year at least here in Milwaukee.    He may take to a new team like a glove and come out and hit career .300 for another franchise but I do not see that kind of career for him starting here.      Here the best of him will be a rotational player who fills in against Lefties pitching and never a game to game starter in my opinion.     

    I personally am a Tyler Black fan.    I like him.  I see a good player in that weird caveman looking guy.  I am not convinced the Brewers see it the same way as of March 1st 2025 and that is also Okay.   

    Time will tell but to say the Brewers are blowing it is a bit of a reach because they seem to know what they are doing with development in players .    If they keep him or lose him this topic is well over talked about.    Tyler Black will happen when he happens.   He is not a key to winning.    He is just a guy and with a minor league full of Dudes his spot here is growing less valuable than it was when he was a rookie of the year in AAA.   The Brewers since getting Black have stocked up the minors in a way few teams ever have  in the modern era.   So the path to the MLB got muddied for Black because of this.    

     

    • Disagree 1

    If we messed up Black it isnt from now, it would be from his early minors when we moved him from 2B to OF to 3B to 1B and didn't just pick one spot and keep him there or just keep him in the OF when he looked good there. I still believe in the bat, but finding PT might.

    • Like 1
    4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

    If we messed up Black it isn't from now, it would be from his early minors when we moved him from 2B to OF to 3B to 1B and didn't just pick one spot and keep him there or just keep him in the OF when he looked good there. I still believe in the bat, but finding PT might.

    I believe that to be true also, it has to add a lot of unneeded stress to a player if your bounced around defensively all the time and not comfortable doing that as a player. Consistently good utility players are hard to find. 

    Nothing has been screwed up with Black.  He is what he is.  Was maybe the prospect expectations a little high more so as the years have now gone by?   If he hits well enough they will find a spot for him.  I see him as a trade package add on at this point...



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