Can Corbin Burnes Be Traded for Jorge Polanco?

With every passing day, the speculation about Corbin Burnes's future in the city of Milwaukee grows. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, there is a belief the Brewers might keep the starting pitcher to avoid any potential backlash from the Brewers fanbase. However, this could be merely a negotiation tactic, to get teams to start asking about Burnes.

The Dodgers could still be in play for Burnes, even with Tyler Glasnow on the roster. The Giants inquired about Burnes earlier this offseason, and many other teams could use a starting pitcher of his caliber. But one intriguing team that could throw their hat in the ring is the Minnesota Twins.

It’s hard to believe that a team who has been trying to trim their payroll would bring in a pitcher who is expected to make around $15 million in their final year of arbitration eligibility. But the Twins might have something the Brewers could use: Jorge Polanco. Let’s investigate why a Burnes for Polanco trade makes sense for both organizations.

Polanco to Milwaukee?
At first glance, adding a player like Polanco to the Brewers does not really make a ton of sense. The Brewers have Brice Turang at second, Willy Adames at shortstop and Andruw Monasterio at third base. With Owen Miller, Vinny Capra, and Oliver Dunn all on the 40-man roster, why would the Crew need another middle infielder?

Well, for starters, Polanco is a career .269/.334/.446 hitter. He is also a switch-hitter, making him easy to play without concern about pitching matchups. Polanco has the exact same batting average against southpaws as he does against right-handed pitching.

Stats are great and all, but his primary position is second base. What, then, happens with Turang? Nothing. Polanco played 14 games at third base last season. If he is comfortable with playing third on a regular basis, then he can platoon with both Monasterio and Turang, playing third base against right-handed starters and second base against lefty ones.

Polanco is set to make $10.5 million this season, and has a club option for 2025 worth $12 million, with a $750,000 buyout. If the Twins were to acquire Burnes, the Brewers would save around $5 million for the 2024 season. The Brewers could use that money toward upgrades at either first base, designated hitter, or even a starting pitcher through free agency.

Burnes to Minnesota?
The Twins have had an interesting offseason already--in the worst possible way. They've made no significant additions, all but announced a payroll reduction, and are in limbo with regard to their TV deal for 2024 and beyond. There have also been a number of important losses throughout the roster.

Kenta Maeda signed a two-year, $24-million deal with the Tigers, Sonny Gray signed a three-year, $75-million pact with the Cardinals, Tyler Mahle signed a two-year, $22-million deal with the Rangers, and Emilio Pagan signed a two-year, $16-million one with the Reds. All these arms have been important parts of the Twins organization over the last few seasons. This doesn’t include the likes of Dallas Keuchel, Donovan Solano, Joey Gallo, and Michael A. Taylor, who are all free agents this offseason.

If the Twins were to enter the 2024 season with this roster, the starting rotation would probably include Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland and Chris Paddack. With the American League Central wide open, the Twins still have the chance to compete.

However, the team's owners are expected to cut down on payroll. The payroll currently is projected at $119 million, which is $35 million less than the 2023 payroll. They may look to continue selling players off the roster, with either Polanco or Max Kepler (on whom the Twins exercised a $10-million club option in early November). If the Twins want to improve their depleted starting rotation, they can always sign someone from the free-agent market, but spending money on a veteran starting pitcher can be a lot more expensive than trying to trade for one. If they can find a trade partner, the team could add a starter while giving away one of their more expensive contracts, only adding a small amount to their payroll.

Enter Burnes who is on his final year of club control. Adding him to the rotation makes the starting rotation feared in the AL Central and gives Minnesota a shot to make a run for a World Series title. Regardless of where they finish, Burnes could then be offered a qualifying offer before entering free agency, giving the Twins a compensatory pick in the 2025 MLB draft.

It would take more than Polanco to do it, but if the organization is willing to keep a lower payroll while still competing, then making a move for the former Cy Young Award-winning starter could help.

Predicted Trade: Twins get RHP Corbin Burnes and LHP Ethan Small for INF Jorge Polanco, RHP David Festa (#9 prospect), RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (#16 prospect), and RHP Zebby Matthews (#24 prospect)

It’s hard to predict what a potential trade could look like. Baseball Trade Values has some systematic, patterned errors in its value estimates. Twitter opinions vary as widely as ever. Much of the Brewers fanbase thought young Dodgers pitcher Ryan Pepiot was functionally untouchable for the Dodgers. Yet, the Dodgers traded him to the Rays in the Tyler Glasnow deal.

The Twins will have to give up a couple of prospects (along with Polanco) for the Brewers to part with Burnes. However, there's a ceiling here, as Burnes more than likely won’t sign an extension before he enters free agency. With the trade of Adrian Houser Wednesday, the Crew could rely on what they have in the starting rotation or try to build the farm in hopes of having solid replacements for the future rotation. If the Brewers are going to add some prospects, why not add a player who has some big-league experience?

If the Brewers want a little more, they could afford trading away Ethan Small, a former first-round pick. Small was once a top prospect for the organization, and made his first start back in 2022. He has since struggled with walks, giving up eight of them in just 6 1/3 innings pitched in his MLB career. As a two-pitch weapon, the Twins could use Small as a relief arm, and/or try to develop another pitch in which he can be confident. With one minor-league option left and now 26 years old, Small offers six years of club control and some flexibility.

Simeon Woods Richardson has bounced around since being drafted in 2018 by the Mets. After being traded to the Blue Jays in the Marcus Stroman trade, he was shipped off to Minnesota in the Jose Berrios deal in 2021. He made his MLB debut in 2022, when he threw five innings, struck out three batters while giving up three runs, two walks and a home run.

Like Small for the Brewers, Woods Richardson was once a high-end prospect the Twins were hoping to use in their rotation for years to come. However, as time went on, the Twinsosphere has lost a little hope with him. He spent most of 2023 in St Paul, with a 7-6 record, a 4.91 ERA, and a WHIP at 1.49. He only struck out 7.6 per nine innings and walked 4.8 batters per nine.

While he may have struggled in Triple A last season, Woods Richardson used his time in the minors in 2023 to adjust his delivery. He has multiple pitches with which to work, including a slider, a curveball and a changeup which is one of his most effective secondary pitches. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 campaign, and is entering his age-23 season. The Brewers can utilize Woods Richardson as a long relief pitcher and could stretch him out to be a back-end rotation arm for years to come. He also has two minor league options the team could use if he struggles in the bigs.

With Small and Woods Richardson basically canceling each other out, the Twins may have to throw in another pitching prospect or two in this trade to entice the Brewers to trade Burnes to their Border Battle rival. One that the Brewers should love is David Festa. Selected out of college ball at Seton Hall, Festa has become a great late-round find for the Twins. His fastball is one of his best weapons in their system, averaging mid-90s velocity and touching 99.

Along with his fastball, Festa has developed a curveball, a slider, and a changeup, the latter of which had a 41% whiff rate in High A, according to MLB.com. His 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings last season came thanks to his burgeoning arsenal. He made his way to Triple A, posting a 2.93 ERA with 12 1/3 innings of work in three starts. He will need to see a little more time in Nashville before making his debut, if he's traded to the Brewers.

If Festa is part of the deal, the Brewers would have a great rotation of the future, with him sliding in alongside Peralta, Robert Gasser, Carlos F. Rodriguez and Jacob Misiorowski.

However, with the Twins only ranked the 17th best farm system in MLB at the midseason rankings, the Brewers could could look for ways to get an even better prospect haul. Perhaps righty Zebby Matthews would be a great addition to this package, to sweeten the deal and entice the Crew. Matthews is just starting his baseball career, pitching at both levels of Single-A baseball throughout the 2023 season. His fastball averaged 94 MPH, while his secondary pitches have started to catch batters swinging and missing. He was used as a starter in both leagues. In Low A, he struck out 53 batters in 38 2/3 innings.

After being called up to High A, Matthews had some struggles, with a 4.59 ERA in 14 appearances. His walk rate was only 1.2 per nine innings, though, and he struck out 12.3 batters per nine frames. He’s still a young prospect, with some development in front of him. He probably won’t make it onto an MLB roster for another year or two, but he has the potential to be a big-league starter.

The Brewers don’t necessarily have to trade Burnes, let alone send him to one of their annual rivals. The Twins, on the other hand, need to build a roster that cuts costs but remain competitive. However, if the price is right, the Crew can part ways with the ace, building a plan to keep Milwaukee competitive over the next few years, while the Twins can remain a threat in the race for the AL Central title.

Do you think the Brewers and the Twins can strike a deal this winter? Are there better trade partners for Burnes or Polanco? Will any of these players be on the move before Opening Day? Let us know in the comments.