3 Corbin Burnes Dodgers Trade Proposals That Don't Include Gavin Lux

I think a dodger trade would be fairly straight forward 1) Pitcher=Sheehan, Stone, Frasso 2) IF Vargas, Busch, Lux 3) extra piece=non top 10 prospect 

I can't see us giving up a comp B pick. I would think we would add a reliever or OF in any deal we're we would give up extra to level up a player.

I)Vargas, Sheehan for Burnes 

Skip the 3rd piece to get the 2 most coveted pieces

2) Stone, Frasso, Kyle Hurt/Ronan Kopp for Burnes and Elvis Peguero

We get 3 high potential arms who are all mlb ready and skip IF prospect.

3) Stone, Busch/Lux, and  SS Joendry Vargas for Burnes and Wilson

We take the lesser of the pitcher/If combo to add the upside of Vargas.

46 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

For some reason, whenever there's a player in MLB who happens to be from Wisconsin, people go wildly out of their way to try to place them with the Brewers. Let's not merely resist that temptation, but rebuke it.

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Image courtesy of © Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK

It's not inconceivable that the Los Angeles Dodgers would trade Gavin Lux to the Brewers in a trade for Corbin Burnes, and it's not inconceivable that the Brewers would have interest in acquiring him. Lux, 26, just lost an entire season to injury, and he's never put it all together at the big-league level, but he's been a top prospect for a reason. Penciled in as the Dodgers' starting shortstop for 2024, he has three years of team control left and could still emerge as a star.

That said, the biggest reason you hear his name every time the Brewers are connected to the Dodgers in Burnes rumors is that Lux is from Kenosha. That's a lousy reason. It's also hard to pin down the value matchup the teams might find on such a deal, because again, Lux is currently written into an essential role for the Dodgers next season, and their vision is fixed on winning the World Series. Let's set him aside, then, and talk about three plausible Burnes-to-Dodgers deals that don't involve Lux.

Dodgers Receive: Corbin Burnes, Competitive Balance Round B pick
Brewers Receive: INF Michael Busch, RHP Landon Knack
Maybe it's worth taking a moment, right up front, to defend the idea that a trade for Burnes would still interest the Dodgers. They did already trade for Tyler Glasnow, after all. In the short term, though, they still need more certainty and some reliable innings at the front end of their rotation. That's one reason why they're interested in free-agent ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It's more likely that Yamamoto ends up elsewhere, though, and if he does, the Dodgers do still need another topflight starter.

After they surrendered two draft picks to sign Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers could also use an extra pick next July. It moves things around, more than anything, because a comp pick can become the one a team loses for signing a free agent with the qualifying offer attached, but that sweetener would dampen the impact of signing Ohtani on the Dodgers' seemingly inexhaustible talent-acquisition and development machine. 

In exchange for all that, the Brewers would be getting an answer at a position of major uncertainty right now: that of "best offensive infielder". Busch is not even an average defender at any infield spot, and would not be able to even fake it at shortstop, but he's an adequate second or third baseman. The glove only needs to be loosely viable, too, because Busch is a dangerous, disciplined left-handed hitter who would give the team the controllable, high-floor power bat missing from their lineup right now. He's a terrific fit for a team currently projected to start Brice Turang at second base and Andruw Monasterio at third.

Knack is a bit less exciting, but could be valuable in his own right. He's a four-pitch guy with an excellent chance to emerge as a back-end starting pitcher and stay viable in that role for half a decade. The Brewers really like a pitcher with a good vertical approach angle on their fastball, and Knack has that.

Dodgers Receive: Corbin Burnes
Brewers Receive: RHP River Ryan, SS Trey Sweeney
Although there's the obvious option to move Turang across the keystone, I don't see an impressive heir to Willy Adames at short in the Brewers organization. If the candidates to take over in the long run are Cooper Pratt and Juan Baez, then there's certainly a bridge of a couple years that will need to be traversed. Sweeney, another lefty-hitting infielder with impressive pop, is likely to be ready for the big leagues no later than early 2025.

Really, though, this deal inverts the formula of the previous one. The better prospect is the pitcher, and the lesser one is the infielder. Ryan is old for his level, and he could end up in the bullpen, but his fastball and slider are devastating and his changeup could yet turn him out as a starter with frontline, Freddy Peralta-like upside. Few organizations are in any position to trade a prospect like Ryan, but the Dodgers are one of them.

Dodgers Receive: Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Competitive Balance Round B Pick
Brewers Receive: RHP Nick Frasso, INF Michael Busch, and RHP Payton Martin
While we're here, we might as well entertain a moonshot. Frasso is one of the most electric arms in the minor leagues, with a fastball that explodes out of his hand from a low release point and a slider-changeup combination that defies those who would be tempted to nudge him into a bullpen role because of his past injury trouble. His slider picked up some extra velocity and found easy two-plane movement in 2023. That comes naturally, given his arm slot. The changeup is a much weirder pitch, but it could be the thing that makes him an ace. Failing that, he could be a genuine relief monster at the drop of a hat.

Add Busch to the mix with Frasso, and the Crew are blending floor and ceiling on two guys with 12 years of team control left, between them. It's very rare to get an opportunity to grab such potentially valuable players in a single deal. For a finisher, though, they could target Martin, a converted high-school infielder still miles from the big leagues, but with great athleticism and a high ceiling. 

The problem with dealing with the Dodgers is that they have so many desirable prospects that they almost gain leverage just by deciding whether they're willing to talk to you. Their depth makes for appealing hypothetical trades; the trick is managing to actually get one done. Are any of these moves worthwhile, in your opinion? Do you think Lux makes sense, after all? Weigh in below.

 

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Those are trade proposals Friedman would absolutely do — and Arnold would laugh at.  

17 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think a dodger trade would be fairly straight forward 1) Pitcher=Sheehan, Stone, Frasso 2) IF Vargas, Busch, Lux 3) extra piece=non top 10 prospect 

I can't see us giving up a comp B pick. I would think we would add a reliever or OF in any deal we're we would give up extra to level up a player.

I)Vargas, Sheehan for Burnes 

Skip the 3rd piece to get the 2 most coveted pieces

2) Stone, Frasso, Kyle Hurt/Ronan Kopp for Burnes and Elvis Peguero

We get 3 high potential arms who are all mlb ready and skip IF prospect.

3) Stone, Busch/Lux, and  SS Joendry Vargas for Burnes and Wilson

We take the lesser of the pitcher/If combo to add the upside of Vargas.

No way Friedman gives up that much pitching. Sheehan isn’t going anywhere imo, unless it’s for Cease, and with Pepiot traded off, I think he now holds Sheehan. 

I just don’t think the Brewers & Dodgers match-up in a Burnes trade. Friedman & Arnold are too disciplined and both will want to “win” the trade-return. 

Going to need a gambler-type GM that really really really wants Burnes and is willing to really really really pay to get him. Preller-Dombrowski-Anthopolous.

20 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Interesting! I actually think two of the three are ones Friedman would turn down, even though Arnold would be interested. Much depends on your stance on some of these wide-variance Dodgers pitching prospects. But if the Brewers could get ahold of Busch and any of Frasso/Ryan/Stone/Knack, I think they'd surprise you by seizing that opportunity. (I don't think the Dodgers have been open to such a structure yet, which is why rumors have stayed pretty cool.)

Busch is a 26 year old, position-less hitter, that in his SSS debut made Brice Turang look good in the box. wRC+ of 49 with a k-rate of 33%+. Arnold would never want him as a headliner in Burnes deal. Gotta be able to defend or Arnold isn’t going to want you.

Most of the pitchers are 25-26 with warts aplenty, and the 2 best arms offered, Frasso & Ryan carry reliever risk.

The second trade offer is the least bad, and one that Arnold might not laugh-off, but Sweeney is a meh SS prospect and Ryan, probable reliever.

The last offer is the worst — giving up Adames and Burnes and the pick for a positionless hitter, talented arm in Frasso with reliever risk, and a lottery type arm a billion years away from the bigs is the offer Friedman is praying Arnold accepts if given.

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Well, I think you're hand-waving way too many things by only seeing the downside in those guys, but I do get it. You'd love more certainty than the pitchers, at least, offer. I would caution against making ANYTHING of Busch's cup-of-coffee numbers, though. He's not Turang. He can hit.

Yeah, I believe Busch will hit, but he can’t defend and that’s a problem. 

Imo, the Dodgers had 2 starters worthy of being included in a Burnes trade, Pepiot & Sheehan, and Pepiot is now with Tampa. 

As I said in another post in this thread, I don’t think Sheehan is going anywhere now that Pepiot is gone, maybe for Cease, but probably not even for him. 

The Dodgers & Brewers just don’t match-up in trades very well since both Friedman & Arnold are too disciplined to move players unless they get more value back than they give-up.

I would genuinely vomit if the Brewers made any of these trades.  

Lux is so much better than everyone else you've named. I don't get the idea that his name is only coming up because he's from Wisconsin. He's a former top-5 prospect who is only available at all because of his injury, and he absolutely did put it all together in the majors when he was worth 3.0 fWAR 471 PA in 2022.

That being said, he's only under team control for another 3 seasons, so I think it depends on whether the front office is still hoping to compete in the short term without Burnes/Adames.

Pass on all of them.  Of the three, the last one is a scenario worth considering IF no better offers were made by other clubs but even then forget adding the CB pick and I'd want another younger but upper level prospect from them.

Baltimore, Atlanta, Toronto, etc etc all make more sense than the Dodgers involving Burnes.  If we can't get want we feel we should get for either Burnes or Adames let's start the season with them and keep talking to teams right up to the trade deadline if need be.  No fire sale here.

I agree with what others have already said.  If this is the very best that the Brewers can do in a deal for Burnes, then we might as well hold onto him.  I know that he's a 1-year rental, but he is a TOR arm, and I've got to figure there's a team (whether it's LA or someone else) that would hopefully give up more than what any of these three packages include for Burnes.  

Also, I know we could all probably argue with the complete legitimacy of the MLB Trade Simulator site, but when you enter each of these three trade scenarios into their program, it has Friedman murdering Arnold in all three.  Take that FWIW, but just wanted to add that to the discussion here.  

You cannot be a fan of the Brewers and suggest garbage trades like this but if I am not mistaken the author is a cubs fan which makes these proposals an even bigger joke.

Any trade of Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers has to start with Emmet Sheehan. Pure and simple. It's going to have to sting for the Dodgers. 

they will move both in seperate moves