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Thankfully, Garrett Mitchell's hamstring issue on Wednesday was of no longer-term concern, so this is an intriguing dilemma. Both Mitchell and Sal Frelick are hitting their stride. Frelick is fighting and scrapping his way on base, and has started to put better swings on balls with 34% of his swings being “squared up” (leading the Brewers) in June. While still having lowish exit velocities, he's getting the ball in the air and showing more power.
Mitchell is slashing .300/.404/.650 in Nashville, and is showing better-than-expected contact skills alongside some incredible defense. With an infield featuring young phenom Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and the defensive maestro that is Blake Perkins in a breakout year, to whom should the Brewers tie their second-half fortunes?
Garrett Mitchell in Triple A
It did not take long for Mitchell to get going, hitting four home runs and two doubles in his first 40 at-bats--including a performance on Wednesday night that simply made him look too good for that level: a 429-foot blast to center field off MLB-ready Max Meyer, as well as a double, two walks and two outfield assists. That should have been a game that prompted the end of the rehab assignment and an MLB reinstatement. Then, he left the game in his final at-bat, clutching his hamstring. There's little doubt about the impact potential in Mitchell's tools, but there are performance-related reasons to wonder how well he can make that potential value into actual value, and there are obviously big injury risks here.
It’s undeniable that Mitchell’s ceiling is as lofty as they come, with perhaps Jarren Duran as a favorable comparison. Both are lightning-fast, extremely rangy center fielders with power and an electricity that gets a crowd going. Mitchell is one of the most talented players in the Brewers system. What's unclear is whether he can put it all together and stay on the field. That being said, he has issues with ground balls on top of swing-and-miss concerns at the big-league level, so the big question is: How have they looked so far in Triple A?
Mitchell has actually done quite well in this regard so far. He's still chasing too often on breaking pitches below the zone that are hurting his swing and miss figures slightly, but this is more a product of swing decisions than a hole in his swing. That’s good news for a player with a 37.6% career strikeout rate in the majors. He is showing improvements in his chase rate above the zone and better coverage inside the strike zone as a whole, compared to his previous stints in Triple A (for the sake of consistency in a comparison, it seems appropriate to keep the level the same). Where he’s really looked good, however, is in his ability to elevate the ball:
Compare his data in 2022-23 to 2024 on ground-ball rates, and it’s clear there’s a massive jump--albeit in a very limited sample. Mitchell has a launch-angle sweet spot rate of 40% thus far, compared with just 7.7% between 2022-23, with an average launch angle of 11.6° vs. 0.8°. It’s a big change, and although he’s sacrificed some exit velocity to get there, it’s a far more playable batted-ball profile in the majors. As a result of the launch angle changes, Mitchell’s natural raw power and athleticism are coming to the fore, and in terms of power output, it’s chalk and cheese:
If Mitchell can sustain any realm of this in the big leagues, he has the type of power that Frelick just can’t match, doing damage on pitches over the heart of the plate and crushing baseballs. He has a swinging strike rate of just 9% so far this season. With his blazing speed and nous on the basepaths combined with (perhaps) the only defensive ability that can match Blake Perkins, that’s one hell of a package.
Sal Frelick
Frelick is a completely different profile. He doesn’t quite have Mitchell’s ability on the bases, despite being fast in his own right, and he isn’t quite as good with his jumps in the outfield--although again, most would consider him an above-average defender in center field. He does two things better than Mitchell, however: he puts the ball in play, and he’s stayed on the field.
Frelick has been a slap hitter so far this season, with minimal extra-base power and strong strike-zone awareness. A chase rate in the 65th percentile and a contact rate in the 91st percentile help him grind out at-bats, fouling off pitches and putting balls in play. He has 39 hits on batted balls bouncing on the infield, and has struggled to do any form of damage to opposing pitchers.
Frelick’s produced some eye-catching defensive plays, but he does have some issues with his routes in center field, which are preventing him being a truly plus center fielder per Statcast metrics. He puts his body on the line out there, and after a shaky April that included a botched dive on an Elly de la Cruz liner, he has found himself looking much more like the outfielder he should be with his speed.
Also, and perhaps understandably to those watching him of late, he has outperformed his expected metrics by quite a bit. He has an expected OPS of just .612, and some regression may be incoming toward that number when the batted balls begin to find more fielders. Frelick has fantastic bat-to-ball skills, but unfortunately the quality of contact just isn't there at this point, and despite being serviceable due to his on base percentage, he hasn’t been able to kick on and take his profile from “I don’t whiff” to “I make good, consistent contact." If Frelick can continue to migrate toward the Brice Turang 2024 model, then of course there's more value to be had, but pure contact hitters have to be really elite with consistent .300+ batting averages to make above-average offensive contributions with limited power production. That is a concern at this stage in his career.
Over the last 30 days, Frelick is slashing .316/.366/.368 which is more than playable with his defensive capabilities. The eye test does suggest he's squaring the ball up more often, with some higher exit velocities. Sustaining this does make him a valuable cog in Pat Murphy's wheel, but can he sustain it?
The Brewers Needs
So this is where it gets fascinating. The Brewers lineup has been constructed to have very definitive roles for some players, with good hitters, sluggers and scrappers almost as three different categories. The likes of Christian Yelich and William Contreras are just good hitters; Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, Jake Bauers and Gary Sánchez are definitive sluggers; while Tyler Black, Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are scrappy players who find ways to get on base and do damage on the basepaths.
Frelick fits into the latter group well, whereas Mitchell has the chance to be more the kind of player who joins the sluggers and the speedsters. He has prodigious raw power when he elevates the ball, but also the speed to run out grounders and cause havoc on the basepaths. He doesn’t quite fit into either category with aplomb, but the question for the Brewers is what they need most from their outfielders, and if that extra slugging ability is worth a little extra swing and miss. If Bauers, Hoskins and Adames are crushing balls, then arguably, Frelick’s profile could be more advantageous. If not, then that thump at the bottom of the lineup can really come in handy.
Mitchell with a 25% strikeout rate is an extraordinarily valuable player to have, and if he can stay around that range, then he’s a clear improvement. If he sticks in the 30% range or higher, not so much, so it depends quite where the Brewers see him landing at the moment and whether the small sample size is indicative of a larger change.
Mitchell, if his hamstring is all well and good, may be able to take this lineup to another level with even better baserunning and defense than Frelick, on top of that power production. It’s a big issue of contrasting styles the Brewers will have to weigh up for the second half of the season if both can stay fit, but I may be edging slightly toward Mitchell at this point.
Can you see Mitchell being a big improvement for the Brewers offensively? Or do you see Frelick’s recent surge as an indication of a player to stick with? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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