The Brewers Can Absolutely Catch the Cubs, Starting Tonight at Wrigley Field

Big leads in divisions are, in a way, more common than they used to be. After all, until 1994, there were only two divisions in each league, rather than three. That meant more teams per division, and less of a chance for any one of them to run away with it. Importantly, back then, winning the division was also the only way to reach the postseason. For that reason, when big leads were seized early in seasons, teams took notice, but no one gave up too quickly. Letting go of the dream of a division crown meant canceling your summer plans, or at least adjusting them to include tedious things like beach trips and bike rides, instead of ballpark franks and late nights next to the TV or radio.

Times have changed. As the Brewers head into Wrigley Field to take on the Cubs for just the second time this season (and the first at the Friendly Confines), they trail Chicago by 5.5 games in the NL Central standings, and you hear hardly any talk about them catching their upstart neighbors. Even most fans who take an optimistic overall view of the team seem to be focused solely on whether the team can secure a playoff spot, and are happy to accept that berth being a Wild Card entry if needed.

The league has programmed fans to think this way, and so have modern methods of understanding and analyzing the game. Half of each season's postseason bids now go to non-division winners, so the special frisson of winning the division is unavoidably diminished. Meanwhile, projections now give us all a certain sense of surety—sometimes even a false one. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA standings give the Cubs a 95.5% chance to win the division, based not only on their lead, but on the model's understanding of the strength of each team's roster. If that spot were the only one promising admission to the October tournament, perhaps a Brewers fan would rebel against the notion, but that's not the case. Why should anyone stake themselves to a 1.5% chance of something (BP even thinks the Cardinals have a better chance to take down the division than do the Crew) when it's not necessary? This is how we've all become conditioned to consume baseball.

It's more fun, though, to hold onto a fierce hope for this team to charge back to the front of the pack and make it three division titles in a row—and four in five years. It's also perfectly plausible that that will happen. The projections are probably a bit too kind to the Cubs, and (therefore) not kind enough to the Brewers. Besides, this sort of deficit disappears plenty often.

Over the last four seasons (2021-24), 11 teams ended the day on July 1 with a division lead of at least 5 games. Two (the 2023 Rays and Rangers) were unseated by the end of 162 games. From 2015-19, there were 15 teams who enjoyed those comfortable cushions, but two of them also ended up missing out on the party. Go all the way back to the last nine seasons of two-division play in each league (1985-93), and we find only 11 total teams who had leads that large that early. (After all, as we said, that was harder to do then.) Again, though, two of them (the 1989 Orioles and the 1993 Giants) were overtaken in the second half.

Right now, the Brewers are just coming into their own. It's been a profoundly uneven season, marred by injuries and some key hitters producing less than was hoped. Now, though, they have Jacob Misiorowski installed in the starting rotation, and set to make his second career appearance Wednesday night against the rival Cubs. They also have a chance to get healthier as the season goes on, with Blake Perkins working his way back from a broken bone in his leg and Brandon Woodruff enduring the slings and arrows of the baseball gods to soldier back to the active roster.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are starting to sputter and stumble, if only slightly. Their offense looked like a world-beater for the first third of the season, but is scuffling lately. Kyle Tucker looks merely good, rather than like a $500-million payday waiting to happen. Pete Crow-Armstrong keeps generating improbable power, but is quietly running a .270 on-base percentage over the last month. Their young, slugging catcher Miguel Amaya is on the injured list, and veteran addition Carson Kelly has regressed from his early-season binge. Their starting rotation is as depleted and thin as the Brewers' is strong and burgeoning. The Cubs are vulnerable.

Much will come down, of course, to how these two teams do in the 10 games they have left against one another. If the Brewers win even six of the 10, they'll essentially pick up 2.5 games, because they'd secure the tiebreaker if the two sides end the season in a tie. That has to start with a sound showing this week at Wrigley Field, but they're catching the Cubs at the right time, so a series victory is perfectly possible.

This isn't an unfamiliar position for Pat Murphy, even if it is so for almost all the players on his roster now. In 2018, the Crew had to catch the Cubs from behind. They did it then, and they can manage it again this summer and fall. A Wild Card spot would probably mean a visit to either San Diego or Chicago for a three-game series in October—no home games, no easy path. Winning the division still matters, both because of the leg up it provides in the playoffs and because it says something concrete and indelible. Over 162 games, a team that wins their division accomplished something meaningful, no matter what happens after that. The Brewers, and Brewers fans, should keep the faith that they can achieve that goal this season. It's not easy, but it's more attainable than it might seem after a glance at the standings.