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If the season ended today, and if whatever catastrophe caused that decision to be made didn't lead us all to forget such trivialities, the American League Cy Young Award could very well go to Tarik Skubal. The Tigers lefty stands in a virtual tie for the league leadership in WAR at both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. In 110 innings, he's running a 2.37 ERA. He's striking out 30% of opposing batters and walking 5% of them. Balancing actual results with expected ones based on batted-ball data and per-batter rates, Skubal has a case for being the best pitcher in baseball.
Alas, Skubal's Tigers are as toothless as ever. The White Sox have securely locked them out of the cellar in the AL Central, but they're safely ensconced in fourth place, and they're not especially close to the Wild Card positions in the AL, either. Skubal has been superb, but his team can't support him with enough runs, and not enough of his teammates are similarly excellent at run prevention.
Skubal is still under team control for two and a half more years. Thus, the Tigers can wait and see a while. They don't have to trade him this month, and to do so, they'll require a team to pay through the nose. Nor will getting that kind of haul be a problem, because teams will line up for the right to bid on a pitcher this good, with the chance to affect three pennant races (and three postseasons) before hitting free agency. Still, Skubal would be a risky hurler to hold onto, and not only because each passing year reduces his trade value incrementally.
In August 2022, Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery on his left forearm. It's a less serious injury than a torn UCL, and he was back by the middle of 2023. Since then, he's been a true ace. The risk, though, is that the elbow monster might not be done with him yet. All pitchers are risky assets, these days. Skubal isn't an extroardinarily risky one, but nor has he demonstrated extraordinary durability. His career high in innings pitched in a season is 150, and that recent surgery is a lurking reminder of the danger of another, more serious one around the next corner.
That might make the Tigers motivated sellers. How motivated should the Brewers, specifically, be as buyers?
How Skubal Fits the Crew
While Freddy Peralta has ace-caliber upside, he's rarely demonstrated it over sustained periods, and never for as long as Skubal has since making it back from the injured list last year. He's a strikeout machine who also doesn't walk anyone, and unlike erstwhile Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes, he also doesn't surrender many home runs.
Skubal is a ground-ball guy, so he won't make as much use of the elite Brewers outfield defense as other hurlers, but his ability to dominate with minimal defensive support is some of the best in baseball. He attacks with two distinct fastballs, which the Brewers love, and he uses both the four-seamer and the sinker against lefties and righties. Both offerings sit at 97 miles per hour and touch 100 or higher.
It's the set of secondary offerings that set Skubal apart, though. His slider is a vicious weapon, inducing whiffs on nearly 40% of swings and ground balls on 54% of those hitters do put in play. His changeup is even more devastating, though, with a whiff rate of 47%. He keeps opponents off-balance with a curveball, too, but it's like gilding the lily.
What Skubal does well is what the Brewers most look for. He's a five-pitch star with two distinct fastballs and the ability to land everything for strikes. He would, with due respect to Peralta, become the instant ace, and arguably (with due respect, this time, to Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Burnes, and Woodruff) the best pitcher the team has had since CC Sabathia spent a summer in town.
But at What Cost?
It wouldn't come cheaply, of course. Acquiring a pitcher like Skubal, especially at this time of year, has to hurt. If it doesn't hurt--if you're willing to even grudgingly nod and accept it, as a theoretical framework--it's almost certainly not a rich enough return to actually get a deal done. The Tigers are in position to demand multiple valuable pieces in return for Skubal, and again, the Brewers would be bidding against other teams, rather than just trying to stare down Detroit executive Scott Harris.
Here's the skeleton of a trade that could work:
- One of the Brewers' young, left-handed hitters in the outfield (Sal Frelick or Garrett Mitchell), or Tyler Black
- Jacob Misiorowski
- One of the team's top two offensive prospects, Jeferson Quero and Brock Wilken
- A throw-in with some big-league upside
That's a lot. That's a pillaging of the Milwaukee farm system, led by Misiorowski, whose recent surge in Double-A has his stock on the rise and teams dreaming a little bit on his potential to start in the big leagues again. It would degrade their outfield depth, although few teams in baseball are in better shape to withstand that than this one. It would force them to rebuild their farm with an eye on 2026 and 2027, rather than counting on contributions next year from whichever trio of players ended up headlining the package.
Adding Skubal would improve their chances to win the World Series this year and in the next two, with Peralta and (starting next year, hopefully) Woodruff helping set a high floor and stretch toward a high ceiling. It would also apply more pressure, though, for players like Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio to build on their successful rookie seasons. It would be a very bold move, and it would be slightly out of character for this front office.
They should do it, anyway. Misiorowski could complete this seeming emergence as a rotation ace, but there's still a perfectly good chance he ends up dealing with injuries or relegated to the bullpen. In fact, if you had to bet one way or the other, you'd still be well-advised to think of him as a relief ace, instead. Quero and Wilken come with their own array of concerns, and with the pick they got from the Orioles in the Burnes trade this winter, they're about to add a cornucopia of talent to the system in the 2024 Draft.
The Crew can weather the loss of even a terrific package of young talent, and still be the favorites in the NL Central this year and next. In the meantime, Skubal would be the kind of transformational talent missing from their pitching staff for this particular pennant race. It's a risk worth taking.
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