What Tarik Skubal Would Cost the Brewers, and Why It's Worth It

[Matthew Trueblood]

The 2024 Milwaukee Brewers are in exceptionally good shape. They're heavy favorites to win their division, and they might even have a shot at a first-round bye in the postseason. Only one ingredient is missing from their recipe for a championship, and it's waiting for them in Detroit.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

 

If the season ended today, and if whatever catastrophe caused that decision to be made didn't lead us all to forget such trivialities, the American League Cy Young Award could very well go to Tarik Skubal. The Tigers lefty stands in a virtual tie for the league leadership in WAR at both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. In 110 innings, he's running a 2.37 ERA. He's striking out 30% of opposing batters and walking 5% of them. Balancing actual results with expected ones based on batted-ball data and per-batter rates, Skubal has a case for being the best pitcher in baseball.

Alas, Skubal's Tigers are as toothless as ever. The White Sox have securely locked them out of the cellar in the AL Central, but they're safely ensconced in fourth place, and they're not especially close to the Wild Card positions in the AL, either. Skubal has been superb, but his team can't support him with enough runs, and not enough of his teammates are similarly excellent at run prevention.

Skubal is still under team control for two and a half more years. Thus, the Tigers can wait and see a while. They don't have to trade him this month, and to do so, they'll require a team to pay through the nose. Nor will getting that kind of haul be a problem, because teams will line up for the right to bid on a pitcher this good, with the chance to affect three pennant races (and three postseasons) before hitting free agency. Still, Skubal would be a risky hurler to hold onto, and not only because each passing year reduces his trade value incrementally.

In August 2022, Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery on his left forearm. It's a less serious injury than a torn UCL, and he was back by the middle of 2023. Since then, he's been a true ace. The risk, though, is that the elbow monster might not be done with him yet. All pitchers are risky assets, these days. Skubal isn't an extroardinarily risky one, but nor has he demonstrated extraordinary durability. His career high in innings pitched in a season is 150, and that recent surgery is a lurking reminder of the danger of another, more serious one around the next corner.

That might make the Tigers motivated sellers. How motivated should the Brewers, specifically, be as buyers?

How Skubal Fits the Crew
While Freddy Peralta has ace-caliber upside, he's rarely demonstrated it over sustained periods, and never for as long as Skubal has since making it back from the injured list last year. He's a strikeout machine who also doesn't walk anyone, and unlike erstwhile Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes, he also doesn't surrender many home runs.

Skubal is a ground-ball guy, so he won't make as much use of the elite Brewers outfield defense as other hurlers, but his ability to dominate with minimal defensive support is some of the best in baseball. He attacks with two distinct fastballs, which the Brewers love, and he uses both the four-seamer and the sinker against lefties and righties. Both offerings sit at 97 miles per hour and touch 100 or higher. 

 

 

It's the set of secondary offerings that set Skubal apart, though. His slider is a vicious weapon, inducing whiffs on nearly 40% of swings and ground balls on 54% of those hitters do put in play. His changeup is even more devastating, though, with a whiff rate of 47%. He keeps opponents off-balance with a curveball, too, but it's like gilding the lily.

 

 

What Skubal does well is what the Brewers most look for. He's a five-pitch star with two distinct fastballs and the ability to land everything for strikes. He would, with due respect to Peralta, become the instant ace, and arguably (with due respect, this time, to Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Burnes, and Woodruff) the best pitcher the team has had since CC Sabathia spent a summer in town.

But at What Cost?
It wouldn't come cheaply, of course. Acquiring a pitcher like Skubal, especially at this time of year, has to hurt. If it doesn't hurt--if you're willing to even grudgingly nod and accept it, as a theoretical framework--it's almost certainly not a rich enough return to actually get a deal done. The Tigers are in position to demand multiple valuable pieces in return for Skubal, and again, the Brewers would be bidding against other teams, rather than just trying to stare down Detroit executive Scott Harris.

Here's the skeleton of a trade that could work:

• One of the Brewers' young, left-handed hitters in the outfield (Sal Frelick or Garrett Mitchell), or Tyler Black
• Jacob Misiorowski
• One of the team's top two offensive prospects, Jeferson Quero and Brock Wilken
• A throw-in with some big-league upside

That's a lot. That's a pillaging of the Milwaukee farm system, led by Misiorowski, whose recent surge in Double-A has his stock on the rise and teams dreaming a little bit on his potential to start in the big leagues again. It would degrade their outfield depth, although few teams in baseball are in better shape to withstand that than this one. It would force them to rebuild their farm with an eye on 2026 and 2027, rather than counting on contributions next year from whichever trio of players ended up headlining the package.

Adding Skubal would improve their chances to win the World Series this year and in the next two, with Peralta and (starting next year, hopefully) Woodruff helping set a high floor and stretch toward a high ceiling. It would also apply more pressure, though, for players like Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio to build on their successful rookie seasons. It would be a very bold move, and it would be slightly out of character for this front office.

They should do it, anyway. Misiorowski could complete this seeming emergence as a rotation ace, but there's still a perfectly good chance he ends up dealing with injuries or relegated to the bullpen. In fact, if you had to bet one way or the other, you'd still be well-advised to think of him as a relief ace, instead. Quero and Wilken come with their own array of concerns, and with the pick they got from the Orioles in the Burnes trade this winter, they're about to add a cornucopia of talent to the system in the 2024 Draft. 

The Crew can weather the loss of even a terrific package of young talent, and still be the favorites in the NL Central this year and next. In the meantime, Skubal would be the kind of transformational talent missing from their pitching staff for this particular pennant race. It's a risk worth taking.

 

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[Playing Catch]

This is brilliant! But why settle for the injury-riddled Skubal, though, when the Brewers could trade for the ghost of Walter Johnson? And don't stop there, go get Bob Feller, too!

[wallus]

2 and a half years of Skubal would have a lot of value. (95.7 BTV) I would rather not empty the farm system for him personally.

[MoreTrife]

I hadn't seen Skubal pitch until Brewers. It was impressive. Almost like watching those whiffleball pitchers. Coming from every angle and speed. I'm too much of a pessimist to say go for it though. Something will happen and we won't win WS.

[BraunWeeksFielder]

There's one pitcher I'd move Mis + for, it's Skubal. He is not just dominant, it's effortless dominance to the point it appears he's playing with his food. A lefty with this type of stuff, with the years of control is such a coup, you make that move every single time it's in front of you and if it doesn't work this year or next, move him ala Burnes with a year before free agency to recoup some of the prospect talent you shipped out. You build up a farm system to help supplement the Major League roster and to make moves to help the Major League roster, this would be such a monumental win to that clubhouse, you'd imagine those players would do the opposite of Hader and could spurn a deep playoff run. 

[Brian]

I think Detroit would probably want more than one of the 3 you have listed.  

Here's the skeleton of a trade that could work:

• One of the Brewers' young, left-handed hitters in the outfield (Sal Frelick or Garrett Mitchell), or Tyler Black

[patrickgpe]

For a player like that I age no problem with them trading Frelik, Miz, Quero and a low level prospect lottery ticket. But I think the cost is way higher with 2.5 yrs of control 

[Brian]

 

[sveumrules]

I just don’t see the Tigers dealing Skubal.

They’ve been trying to convince their fans they are serious about returning to relevance since hiring Hinch in 2021, then signing Baez/Rodriguez for $200M+ in 2022.

Trade Tarik now and that’s admitting the last four years were a failure and you don’t see things getting better for at least two more, probably longer.

[Matt Breen]

The real attraction for Detroit is getting a couple of Top 50 players who could step right into their lineups. I honestly don't know that much about Skubal - just that he puts up some sweet numbers. 

I guess the big question is what is the upside the club sees in guys like Frelick and Mitchell and Black. 

[Outlander]

I think the Tigers have incentive to trade him with his injury history and unlikely extension with Boras as his agent. It would take a lot and don't think the proposed is enough, there will be a lot of competition. 

[Harold Hutchison]

I'd work the deal a little differently, and use it to clear 40-man space, which the Crew will have to do: 3B Brock Wilken, CF Blake Perkins, RHP Carlos F. Rodriguez, and 1B Jake Bauers.

Detroit gets upgrades at 1B (Bauers over Torkelson) and DH (Perkins bumps Greene to DH, displacing Canha). They also get a near-MLB-ready arm in Rodriguez and our 2023 1st-round pick.

[titletownking]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

I'd work the deal a little differently, and use it to clear 40-man space, which the Crew will have to do: 3B Brock Wilken, CF Blake Perkins, RHP Carlos F. Rodriguez, and 1B Jake Bauers.

Detroit gets upgrades at 1B (Bauers over Torkelson) and DH (Perkins bumps Greene to DH, displacing Canha). They also get a near-MLB-ready arm in Rodriguez and our 2023 1st-round pick.

And what else? Cause this package doesn’t even start a conversation. We’re talking multiple, 3-4 top 10 prospects and a big league ready contributor to land this guy. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

I'd work the deal a little differently, and use it to clear 40-man space, which the Crew will have to do: 3B Brock Wilken, CF Blake Perkins, RHP Carlos F. Rodriguez, and 1B Jake Bauers.

Detroit gets upgrades at 1B (Bauers over Torkelson) and DH (Perkins bumps Greene to DH, displacing Canha). They also get a near-MLB-ready arm in Rodriguez and our 2023 1st-round pick.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

I'd work the deal a little differently, and use it to clear 40-man space,

Among 114 pitchers with at least 250 IP since 2022, Skubal comes in 2nd with a 63 FIP-.

The only guy better than him is an injured Spencer Strider (60 FIP-) with a big gap down to Kevin Gausman in 3rd with a 70 FIP-.

You can’t trade for players of that calibre by clearing 40 man space, think the Corbin Burnes package then double it and you might pique the Tigers interest.

[BrewerFan]

39 minutes ago, titletownking said:

And what else? Cause this package doesn’t even start a conversation. We’re talking multiple, 3-4 top 10 prospects and a big league ready contributor to land this guy. 

At this point, the Tigers decide there is a tax on the Brewers ridiculously offering one decent and legitimate young prospect, two guys who...could very well be DFAed this off-season(I don't think Perkins will be, but...it's not hard to envision and Bauers is as likely as not).

 

I would hate this trade...and then love it.

I'd guess you'd be looking at Mis, Black and Pratt as just a pretty core three. I think that'd be a fair ask. That's a LOT to give up. You'd just have to come to terms with it if you're the Brewers, but that's reasonable...IMO. Misiorowski has the best arm arguably outside of Skenes, but he's a loong way from being a true ace.

Black is a really good hitter. I think he's got a high floor, but not sure he'll hit quite enough with his limited defensive value(LF is his best position most likely, maybe 1B, we'll see).

And Pratt would be arguably the crown Jewel. I think he's got massive upside. So that'd be the fight. Keeping Pratt. But this dude is so dominant and when he's not striking people out, they're hitting the ball to our 3 SS's in the IF.

Just a perfect match. Now you move to next year, Woody comes back, maybe he's 85% what he was, still a GREAT #3. 
Gasser, Logan Henderson, maybe Miley...probably not, but potentially. Peralta, we still have the young core.

 

I'm a major prospect hoarder, but if there's a player to make this deal for...that's it. 

[Trax]

For what you think we'd have to give....Big PASS

[wallus]

44 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

At this point, the Tigers decide there is a tax on the Brewers ridiculously offering one decent and legitimate young prospect, two guys who...could very well be DFAed this off-season(I don't think Perkins will be, but...it's not hard to envision and Bauers is as likely as not).

 

I would hate this trade...and then love it.

I'd guess you'd be looking at Mis, Black and Pratt as just a pretty core three. I think that'd be a fair ask. That's a LOT to give up. You'd just have to come to terms with it if you're the Brewers, but that's reasonable...IMO. Misiorowski has the best arm arguably outside of Skenes, but he's a loong way from being a true ace.

Black is a really good hitter. I think he's got a high floor, but not sure he'll hit quite enough with his limited defensive value(LF is his best position most likely, maybe 1B, we'll see).

And Pratt would be arguably the crown Jewel. I think he's got massive upside. So that'd be the fight. Keeping Pratt. But this dude is so dominant and when he's not striking people out, they're hitting the ball to our 3 SS's in the IF.

Just a perfect match. Now you move to next year, Woody comes back, maybe he's 85% what he was, still a GREAT #3. 
Gasser, Logan Henderson, maybe Miley...probably not, but potentially. Peralta, we still have the young core.

 

I'm a major prospect hoarder, but if there's a player to make this deal for...that's it. 

I think you're trade package is pretty close. I think we would have to add another player that would hurt like a Bitonti to get them to say yes. For the three you listed plus Bitonti, I would probably do it.

[BrewerFan]

41 minutes ago, wallus said:

I think you're trade package is pretty close. I think we would have to add another player that would hurt like a Bitonti to get them to say yes. For the three you listed plus Bitonti, I would probably do it.

I'd really fight to not give up both Pratt and Bitonti. 

If you give up Black and Miz, those are two top 35 prospects. Both have warts, but still...that's a lot.

I think you have to give up Pratt, but I'd try and make it Wilken+ another good younger prospect.

Normally, two top 35 prospects and then two more of the top ~15-18 in your organization would likely get it done. Maybe Frelick and Wilken? It just feels like those two top prospects have bigger question marks than most.

 

I'm going to guess Detroit holds onto him unless they're overwhelmed though, so...you're probably close to the mark.