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When the Brewers brought the winning run to the plate with two outs against San Francisco Giants reliever Ryan Walker on Sunday, Pat Murphy pinch-hit left-handed-hitting Anthony Seigler for Caleb Durbin—who had hit a go-ahead home run earlier in the game and has three walk-off plate appearances this year.
Seigler took four pitches outside the strike zone, but a high strike call on the first pitch contributed to an eventual strikeout. That dropped his season slash to .208/.317/.208. Yet, he has continued to receive key plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. While not in a straight platoon with Durbin at third base, Seigler has taken more of what were once his starts against righties.
The box score results have not been pretty, but it's been a small sample of 64 plate appearances, and the Brewers have been impressed by the process of his at-bats.
"I don't know about you," Murphy said at the start of the weekend, "but I look up at the board and I see his—what do you call it?—his [slash] line, and I'm like, 'Is that right?' Because it seems like it's been a lot more successful than his line is."
The metrics agree. Seigler's .335 xwOBA and 102 DRC+ are both a few ticks above the league averages, suggesting his plate appearances have been much better process-wise than his results. He is swinging at the right pitches and hitting plenty of solid line drives, skills that are typically conducive to big-league success.
His run value on swings is negative in the graphic below because of his poor results, but Seigler's swing decisions have been excellent. He is selective, but not passive. According to Statcast, he has chased just 16.3% of pitches outside the zone, while offering at pitches over the heart of the plate at an above-average rate. That discernment has fueled a strong 12.5% walk rate, against an 18.8% strikeout rate.
While he has not shown much pop, Seigler's combination of a league-average hard hit rate, above-average contact rate, and elite sweet spot rate (batted balls hit with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) should lead to more success than he has experienced so far.
"We think that he's given us enough results, meaning we know what he's capable of," Murphy said. "He's capable of consistent contact. He's capable of ball-striking it. And the most important thing he's capable of is that he's not intimidated by the moment, and that's what always impressed me the most. Here's a guy that's never been in the big leagues, and he acts like he's been here. His presence at the dish, he acts like he's been here.
"It's just one of those things where I think he's proven to me that he's got a spot here."
Several of this season's role players, including Isaac Collins and Brice Turang, owe much of their success to swing decisions and hitting the ball at the right trajectory. Seigler features those same attributes. That's why he has usurped Durbin in certain spots against right-handers—including on Sunday against Walker, whose deceptive crossfire delivery has held righties to a .567 OPS this year.
"Seigler's got a knack for getting on base in big situations," Murphy said after the game. "Durbin is not a good matchup for that guy. The few weaknesses Durbin has, that's not a good matchup."
It may raise eyebrows, but the Brewers have valid reasons for believing in Seigler. If the results do not improve over time or his at-bats worsen, they will have to reevaluate. That time has not yet arrived, though. Nor should it do so for at least a few more weeks.
"I think he and Durbin kind of give us a nice combination there, and we want to stick to that," Murphy said.
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