TooLiveBrew

Congrats, BA! Well-deserved, just as it was last year. Please stay with the Brewers!

But... don't you round up to .2995, then round up to .300?!?! It's a fix! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Nope, I used the whole "guy that throws some of the lowest" part wrong. I'm genuinely shocked that Hoffman had so many high-leverage innings, since I'd thought the Closer role (stereo)typically has been shown to not work as many high-leverage innings, as, say, the Set-Up man. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif I'm glad you corrected me on that one... sheesh.

Where was anyone personal? Angel Pagan had a better season than Mike Cameron in terms of offense? I guess if one hot month & one decent month is all you need. Let's just look at Mike's July & August this season, in that case. I don't think you can rank Beltran better when he missed so much time... how does durability not factor in here? Imo it's complete cherry-picking. When you have top-flight defense like Cameron, and the guys better than him offensively can be counted on one hand, it's hard for me to stomach anything below an A.

The fact that Fielder can get bigger & better sponsorship opportunities in NY/BOS/LA/etc. plays a huge role in whether or not he'd re-sign with the Brewers. Even if Milwaukee offered comparable money, he'd still probably be able to make more in a bigger market. Plus, this is a Boras client we're talking about here... he's going to hit free agency.

The problem with regarding him as a cornerstone is that if he fails one more test, he's banned for life -- and he's demonstrated no reason for the organization to expect he won't test positive again. As much as I hate this notion, & especially with a pitcher of Jeffress's upside I'd never mention this, but at this point I'd rather see the Brewers use him as a reliever. Get him on the 40-man & to MLB as fast as possible. A (potentially) dominant reliever, while clearly not as valuable as a starter, has a lot of value & can be very hard to find without paying a premium ($$ or prospects).

Why go with an unproven, likely unproductive CF, when you can just resign a proven, consistent, ultra-durable CF coming off a 4.5 WAR season? Because Cameron strikes out too much to be good! We need someone fast who never strikes out!

I agree with the sentiments so far. Sign Hoffman as quickly as possible and then move on to the rotation. Hoffman has been very reliable. It is a low risk move and allows us to continue to try to develop a closer for the future. I find it interesting that you could swap out Mike Cameron's name in this statement, along with 'CF' for 'CP', yet Brewers fans seem very much split on whether or not to bring Mike back... meanwhile no one even thinks to object to Hoffman returning. I like that Hoffman appears to be coming back (since clearly he's still very good), but the problem is the starting rotation, not the guy that throws some of the lowest-leverage innings of any pitcher on the roster. EDIT: The first sentence I typed is by no means a shot at jjfanec. I completely agree with his point on Hoffman, his post just sparked my thoughts on Cam.

I'm concluding that he must have some filthy stuff to confuse hitters that much. It could also be because said hitters had never seen him before, or seen very little of him. I think Narveson will definitely have a shot at next year's rotation. I just hope we don't have to count on him as anything more than a #5 type.

I just wish the Brewers hadn't backloaded his contract. I think (just imo) they were planning on being able to unload him towards the end of the contract, since FA contracts had exploded so much in value. At the time, $12.5M AAV didn't look like it'd be so bad for a #5 SP. It actually would have made more sense to front-load the contract, since the core guys were all still pretty cheap.

yep, I completely understand the logic behind the metric. Completely. Sorry http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif

I think Duncan will wind up as LaRussa's pitching coach, wherever that is. Is there any information that Duncan is seeking a managerial position exclusively, or is that just your own speculation? On-topic, I would love to see Peterson hired. That said, I'd hate to see him fired mid-season or after 2010 because the Brewers' pitchers just aren't that good. Peterson would be a great move, but a pointless one unless Melvin can bring in better quality pitching.

No, Ruben Amaro Jr. assumed that role this past offseason. Gillick retired, though I believe he may still be an advisor. I believe Epstein and the Red Sox are the model GM/franchise. Yes they have money and can spend, but they spend smart. Unlike a lot of the Yankees spending. Also they develop players and don't trade all of their prospects. And when they do trade them the trades usually work out well. Two World Series titles the last five years also helps. There are just too many blanket statements in praise of the Red Sox for my tastes. I'm sorry to pick on your quote, as this isn't aimed exclusively at you. The Red Sox are a perfect example of what rluz was getting at in his "cold hard cash" comment. The ability to eat bad signings (Smoltz -- for BOS --, Penny, etc.), pony up record posting fees (Matsuzaka), sign expensive free agents, & re-sign your own potential free agents really has little to do with GM skill. I think BOS gets too much credit in general, and specifically with the comment that they "spend smart". I really don't think they spend much wiser or less wisely than any big-money payroll. As for the Yankees, I think you have to look at this past offseason & say they spent wisely. That organization's literal goal, every season, is to win the WS. So they spent money -- that they won't have to worry about once their big stars are getting old & declining -- in order to absolutely load up for 2009 (& I think reasonably '10 & maybe '11 as well). The Yankees targeted the 2009 offseason as one for which they'd roll out the loot years in advance. I think that's pretty smart spending when you have the resources. Teams like BOS & NYY just don't suffer the same consequences as a team like MIL does in signing someone like Suppan (or Pavano). Yes, they lose the money, but it doesn't affect their ability to continue to sign expensive players -- and don't forget that includes the draft & international signings too. Mega-rich teams can afford to sign someone like Strasburg & not have the drama unfold the way WAS did this year. I'm rambling at this point... so I'll stop. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'll also admit that I probably omitted some subtleties there, but I just always cringe when BOS gets praised so much. I think Epstein is a good GM, but I don't think BOS (or any big-market franchise) should be the 'model'. Imho 'the model' implies something that any franchise could/should follow, and a team like the Brewers will never be able to follow Boston's model.

I am saying I really think Doug Melvin is pretty darn smart and good at his job, and I'm inclined to trust his instincts. Macha, I'm not as sure about him, but . . . Anyway, just advancing a scenario/explanation. While I agree, the Gamel situation this season really made me tone down my praise for Melvin. If you hire a manager, and he won't play the guys you want in the lineup, did you really do a good job in hiring your manager? So far, Macha has had nothing but Melvin's full support -- and that, combined with how badly Gamel was handled, makes me tone down my love for Melvin as well. "Well, we are going to bring him up anyway. I think he should get regular play time. Maybe rest McGehee cause he knee hurts, and that." "I'll see what I can do." That's from logan's most recent post in this topic. I think it underscores my main problem with how Gamel was handled this season. If you call your top hitting prospect up, with no plan to ensure that he has a full-time role -- that's a problem. And if you call up your top hitting prospect, fully intend for him to have a full-time role, but your manager won't comply (& you don't seem to care much) -- that's a problem too. The only way it could have made more sense for Gamel to get a lot of playing time this season in the bigs is if McGehee's injury was season-ending. There were so many ways to get Gamel the 3B job full-time this year, and you really don't even have to get too creative. At the expense of repeating myself yet again, I just can't describe how disappointed I am in the way the Brewers handled Gamel this season.

Because, again, in our minds (those of us that watched the games) we all know that Prince Fielder was pretty darn important to the team in 2009 but you metric seems to show that he was pretty replaceable. And this is only shown because the metric was done with the current standings. It's not that he's replaceable, it's merely the fact that his team is out of the race. He's 'replaceable' if your team is going to miss the playoffs anyway. Imo Sam's approach here is one that accepts that many (or even most) MVP voters are going to demand their candidate be on a contending team. Like he said in his OP, this isn't necessarily the best way to figure out who's most valuable... but it's a good way to find out whose production was most valuable on the better teams in the league.

He's one of those guys who has had his luster really wear off (I remember Rob Dibble on XM used to really rip on him as overhyped), but could potentially really thrive in the right situation. Rob Dibble also thinks the most important stat for pitching is W-L record. I agree Bailey is the kind of guy that could thrive in the right situation. He's another good example of the kind of pitching the Brewers should be targeting this offseason: young, ready to face MLB hitters, and a buy-low candidate with good upside.

Jeffress smoking weed concerns me 0%. His lack of dedication to his potential career worries me 100%. I hope the Brewers fast-track him, to get him on the 40-man as quickly as possible.

Wait, the Brewers screwed up in handling Gamel?!?!?! Like trwi said, this is stuff this board was talking about months ago. Really disappointing to read that the Brewers' front office is only aware they made these mistakes now. It's funny though -- the Brewers' F.O. hired the guy that put him in "those roles" ... and at the time apparently had no problem with him playing in "those roles". It's almost like this organization had no plan for Gamel! Crazy!

Weeks has far too much value at 2B to consider a move to CF... nevermind the fact that he'd stink in CF for a while, too.

So once again, it's to Zduriencik's credit that the Brewers have good hitters, and exclusively Melvin's fault there isn't enough good pitching. That seems fair. I guess what I'd ask is for people to be able to provide tangible examples of all the other GMs out there that are successfully flipping their hitting prospects into top pitching prospects and/or top arms. It's really easy to see that the Brewers need pitching, but it's not quite as simple as 'Melvin has failed!' I feel like people are expecting moves from Melvin that just aren't that common or easy to pull off. And it's not that fans shouldn't expect and/or hope for moves like that -- it's that imo the criticism flies far too freely & easily. I just don't think criticizing, without taking the context of the trade market into account, is constructive or fair. The kind of move or moves that people accuse Melvin of failing in so mightily just don't happen very much. That's not an excuse, that's just reality. And once again, I see nothing wrong in expressing frustration that 'move x' hasn't been made... I just think there's far too much criticism without any real context. Where are all these moves Melvin is supposed to be making? Is it really a problem with Melvin, or is it more a problem that any GM has a hard time swinging the kind of deal folks want to see?

I understand baseball is different, and there's a much higher rate of failure in identifying top of the rotation pitchers. But Melvin has had how many years now? Six? And he hasn't found ONE. Unless you count Gallardo. My guess is that Peavy was on Melvin's radar for this offseason and the White Sox swept in and stole his thunder, which really sucks because he was by far the best option out there. Peavy was on Melvin's radar screen in ~ May (iirc). Then Peavy hurt his ankle, killing any chance at a deal. Peavy still has some questions mechanically, and I'm really not sure his contract is the kind the Brewers should be looking to take on. The chances that he'll spend a significant amount of time on the DL in the next year or two are pretty high imho. The reason the ChiSox took on Peavy is that they can afford the risk of a big contract not panning out (like Alex Rios). The Brewers can't afford that kind of mistake, and on top of that are already dealing with one in Suppan.

I think it says more about how impossible it is to makes some people happy than how good the GM is at finding competent managers. I actually think it speaks to how impossible it is to find a competent manager. Nearly every guy makes the same mistakes & spouts the same cliches.

I think you make a solid point that McGehee -- Vazquez is at least very close. However, with the thin FA class for starting pitchers, and the luxury of having enough young arms that they can sell Vazquez, I think the Braves would (rightfully) hold out for a better return than McGehee alone.

Measley ol' Vazquez? Not sure we're talking about the same pitcher here.

He's a freaking rookie. He's a 26-yo rookie that never performed this well in the minors, and it obv. took him a while to make his way through the minors. I don't think saying that this might be a career year for him is anything close to an insult. I also think that McGehee alone might not be enough to get Vazquez.