For what is worth: Jon Lester FIP 4.66, Jose Quintana FIP 4.69, Robbie Ray 4.72, Julio Tehran 5.33. Pitchers can still succeed with a FIP at that level. Shields primarily is protection for the bullpen when the other starters leave after 4 2/3. Quintana 4.26 ERA Ray 5.05 ERA Teheran 4.46 ERA You can be lucky beyond your FIP, but I don't want those FIPs or those earned run results. Just because Lester has outperformed a bad FIP doesn't mean it's wise to ignore FIP (it's not the be-all end-all, either though). None of those guys above are either succeeding or look like improvements to our rotation.