As you say yourself, tiny sample size. Even someone who would consistently get hit that hard wouldn't give up anywhere near as many homeruns over the long haul. Now of course even with a normal HR rate 1/4 to 1/5 of his current one some of those hard hit balls would be singles and doubles so it's not as if they disappear completely, but that naturally has far less of an impact on ERA. Anyway, it's hard to really get anywhere here, time will have to tell. My original point was about the HRs being a "fundamental issue" with his game, which I don't believe they are. They weren't in 47 (Regular + postseason) MLB innings in 2018, they weren't in 260 minor league innings before that. 10 innings this season doesn't change that. My fault for not being more clear. The "fundamental issue" I mentioned wasn't the HR ball. It's the ability to consistently get through5 innings with a decent outing, and that's a pretty low bar. Yet, a bar the 3 young pitchers haven't reached, except for 1 out of 6 times. They'll get there. That's what I always hear. But there is no guarantee of that at all. Peralta has the best chance of the 3, as he has done it once this season and several times last season. Burnes and Woodruff can look so dominant the first time through the lineup, then really struggle. I just think we've set expectations way too high- for this season at least. If 2 of the 3 are reliable (forget dominant) I would be satisfied.