I don't think people realize how lucky Bush got last year. His K rate declined and his walks went up but somehow his ERA went down so people think he was a better pitcher. Bush is the pitcher I'm most afraid of going into 2009 because the thing with luck is that it runs out. If you don't believe me, check out this article: http://fantasynews.cbsspo...sybaseball/story/11263536 Bush posted his lowest ERA since his rookie year, despite a career-worst 2.3 K/BB ratio and 1.4 HR/9 rate. His success just might have had something to do with less than a quarter of his balls in play falling in for base hits. An almost certain regression of Bush's BABIP towards .300 means you can't count on another low 4.00s ERA, all things being equal. Worse yet, all things aren't equal, as a dramatic drop in K/BB combined with a rising flyball rate would foretell an ERA spike in '09, even without the expected BABIP increase.