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cwolf2012

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Everything posted by cwolf2012

  1. cwolf2012
    "whoever is in love with Foxtrax and has it on the screen with every pitch of the Brewers' games this season, it's annoying and distracting. No other team's broadcast has it up for anywhere near as often. They'll use it for individual pitches on replay and that's it. It bugs me." I'm one of the bad guys for you. I love having it up for every pitch.
  2. cwolf2012
    "Haha, I have never seen so many strike outs/ground outs to the pitcher ever. No kidding. There are a couple guys who get maybe 35 ft up in my unlimited league, and they're unhittable when they're on. I can't even fathom 40 ft regularly. That ball is coming down so fast at that point. EDIT: Note, we are not good. I'm guessing your team would probably mash against these guys. EDIT 2: And to be on topic: Be up one run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th, guys on 1st and 2nd. Guy hits a deep shot to RC to an OF who rarely makes mistakes, he gets a little turned around, ball hits his glove and drops, we lose. That was for the first half championship.
  3. cwolf2012
    Only 40 ft? What are you, unlimited arc noobs?
  4. cwolf2012
    "Actually as fan we possess no entitlements what-so-ever." Okay, then the ownership group is entitled to it (since they pay for the product and the management). And since the ownership group essentially reports to the fans since we pay the money, we are somewhat entitled to that feeling as well.
  5. cwolf2012
    "Trying to judge a rookie manger based on 50 games is like judging a player based on his first 50 games. It just can't be done to any degree of accuracy so why even try?" There's no sample size with managers. Decisions are very clear cut and purely mental. He has made bad decisions. I'm not saying he can't improve, but you can absolutely judge a manager on a 50 game sample size. A hitter, no.
  6. cwolf2012
    "I'm pretty sure RR's first inning sacrifices is bad strategy. " I'm willing to go beyond "pretty sure" with that. They're bad decisions.
  7. cwolf2012
    "Maybe he's more Russell Branyan than Prince Fielder" He's not really either. Both those guys have good plate discipline. Trumbo has a career .330 OBP in the minors. Not particularly good.
  8. cwolf2012
    The only issue I have with buying a bat this year is that there's a very good chance the ASA will switch to BBCOR certified bats only in the near future.
  9. cwolf2012
    Cool Hand Luc?
  10. cwolf2012
    "Can any of the stat heads confirm?" Without citing any stats whatsoever, I will give you an unequivocal, resounding "YES" to that question.
  11. cwolf2012
    I think you may need to recheck some of your math in that article, And That. I'm going to copy-paste my response from someone who linked to it on BCB. He seems to think the UBR is measured in wins, not runs. I may be mistaken, though. Specifically, these things jump out at me as wrong: “Adding in the Brewers’ stolen base success mitigates the -2.8 UBR WAR somewhat, probably making it closer to -2.6.” You can’t add the SB value into the UBR rating to negate the rating. That’s already covered by wOBA under the batting values. http://www.fangraphs.com/...011&month=0&season1=2011 “the Brewers would have the 3rd best offense in baseball (by FanGraphs WAR). Such as it is, the Brewers have the 11th best offense in baseball. Baserunning matters.” I have a really hard time believing that the Brewers have already cost themselves 28 runs with bad baserunning. As bad as they’ve been, I just have a really hard time believing that. Secondly, if it’s measured in runs like I think, I don’t think the gap between 11th and 3rd in baseball is 2.8 runs so far.
  12. cwolf2012
    "To think Betancourt was ahead of me and to know the organization would give him every chance to succeed because they acquired him to be the starting SS, I probably would've thought my chances of playing were slim. And your odds of playing are better with Elvis Andrus in front of you on the depth chart? Cruz made a bad decision. His best chance to make a team and become a starter was with the Milwaukee Brewers, and he threw it away because he didn't think things through. That said, the Brewers sure could use him as depth. I'd trade a bag of balls, maybe even two bags of balls to get him back. In reality, I'd probably give up an extremely low-level prospect or some cash for him.
  13. cwolf2012
    "Aren't strikeouts and low batting average meaningless?" No. A strikeout is worth slightly less than an out made on a ball in play. Low batting average only matters if you don't take enough walks to get your OBP high and you don't hit for a lot of power. Both of those things are things Dunn does well. Strictly with his bat, yes, Dunn is a decent replacement for Fielder. Prince is not a great defender, but he's at least adequate. Dunn is not.
  14. cwolf2012
    "I would have to disagree with that. Offensively, it's tempting to look at just his .354 OBP and suggest that he's been a plus but his .314 SLG negates the OBP and then some. Just remember that 10 points of SLG is equal to roughly 17 points of OBP. A player with the line of .256/.300/.344. would roughly have the same value of what Kotsay has done. " I think you need to check your math, Russ. You got them flipped. EDIT: .354/.314 would be equaled by .300/.406. So assuming Kotsay continues to OBP .354 (bold assumption), his .300 OBP replacement would have to slug .406 to equal his value at this point.
  15. cwolf2012
    "If we can get a 1.5 WAR 1B (Gamel?)" Frankly, I'd be sorely disappointed in Gamel if he was only worth 1.5 WAR as a 1B.
  16. cwolf2012
    "cwolf, Betancourt leading the league in SF and also having deep drives to the OF on a nightly basis meant that he could see his BA on balls in play creep up. He drives the ball well." Nothing in his batted ball profile indicates that he's going to do much better than a .280-.290 BABIP. 18.3% LD% for his career, 16.7% this year. He's also put up a 17.8% and 17.1% in the last two years. His age means he's losing speed, so he can't expect to improve his IFH%. "Yet you don't have a problem when someone uses a single statistic to evaluate a players offense?" There's only one offensive stat right now that is strong enough to indicate offensive value, and it's wOBA. wOBA is pretty darn good, so I'm okay with using it as a primary indicator of performance, and BABIP used to adjust those lines for future predictions offensively. Either way, what posts/statements gave you an indication that I only use one statistic to evaluate a hitter and/or don't have a problem with using a single stat?
  17. cwolf2012
    " From everything I've seen Betancourt is better than average defensively." "Defensively, Punto is a butcher at short and Counsell has lost most of his range with his advanced age and injuries." This is completely wrong and borders on trolling.
  18. cwolf2012
    "It would probably cost more to sign Branyan than to keep Kotsay. Maybe." True, it would. 300k. (prorated league minimum)
  19. cwolf2012
    "Betancourt has a BABIP of .239 - he has been extremely unlucky and that will likely improve. Normally, I would agree with this strongly. In this case, I don't. It will certainly go up, as .239 is unsustainable, even for him, but he's really bad at making solid contact. I've never seen someone hit so many 1st or 2nd pitch dribblers to 2nd and short. His BABIP will be below league average, even after regression.
  20. cwolf2012
    "Kotsay has a -1 UZR" As useless as this much UZR data is worth, his UZR/150 so far is -14.5, not -1. He's been worth exactly 0.0 WAR so far. Branyan is a better bat, Boggs is a better defensive player. There's literally no argument that works in Kotsay's favor at this point, except his "grittiness" or "veteran presence." I know it's not going to happen, and Kotsay isn't going anywhere, but it would make the team better.
  21. cwolf2012
    "If you care about Mat Gamel ever getting a shot, signing Branyan would be a bad thing." For the life of me, I can't figure out why this is the case. Do you think Branyan is going to hit so well that they'll resign him to be the starter next year, therefore cancelling out Gamel's chances? Or are you referring to this year?
  22. cwolf2012
    "No, but he's no where near as bad as many would have you believe." I completely disagree with you. Simply because he hasn't been the worst SS in baseball defensively doesn't change fact that he still hasn't hit at all this year. One well-timed homerun does not make someone a good hitter. He has a .255 wOBA this year. His defense has been better than I expected, but still not anything amazing, and his bat has been significantly worse than I expected. The guy is a bad player. Strawboss has it right, though, there are no replacements. Until something decent comes available, there's nothing we can do but continue to play Yuni.
  23. cwolf2012
    Him instead of Kotsay? Boom, match made in heaven. We get the veteran grit of Kotsay to go with a bat that can actually hit more than singles. Boggs can be the 5th OF.
  24. cwolf2012
    "There's got to be just a decent SS they can get without having to give up very much. " As Strawboss has contended, this guy isn't available yet. Yuni is probably a -0.5 - 1 WAR player, and any available players at this point who are on MLB rosters are pretty much the same. I'd have to do a pretty thorough scan of AAA to find someone who would be available cheap, and those guys would probably be only worth no more than a .3-.5 WAR upgrade in a best case. That is by no means a guaranteed upgrade either. The best case is that someone like Scutaro, Yunel Escobar, or Hardy is available for a surplus arm as a salary dump at the trade deadline. Although if Mark Rogers has appeal to other teams, I would definitely be willing to part with him as the primary piece in a package for somebody slightly better than those guys.
  25. cwolf2012
    "Villanueva is 1-0 with a 1.48 ERA in 24 1/3 IP with 21 K's and 10 BB. He's posted a WHIP of .822. His opponent batting average is a paltry .132 and opponent OPS is .454. His WAR sits at 0.8." His BABIP against is .148. I'm not going to argue that he isn't better than Green. He most definitely is, but don't put too much weight in these results. There's a lot of luck in there too.
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